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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
ACC|RHETT LASHLEE|—RECORD11-3|CONF—
SMU#12 AP 13 FPIACC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
82FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1071 BC / 13
BC RATIO
33%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
11-2ACTUALvs10.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+17.7
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE72
PERFORMANCE72
TALENT76
CONTINUITY79
DEFENSE92
PERFORMANCE92
TALENT72
CONTINUITY73
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
60MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 24ANEVADA—W 29-24231313+79BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1AUG 31HHOUSTON CHRISTIAN—W 59-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6HBYU#13L 15-18448888+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HTCU—W 66-42808282+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HFLORIDA STATE—W 42-16913838+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5ALOUISVILLE—W 34-27748585+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ASTANFORD—W 40-10702424+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26ADUKE—W 28-27506868+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HPITTSBURGH—W 48-25696262+30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HBOSTON COLLEGE—W 38-28584848+44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AVIRGINIA—W 33-7563232+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HCALIFORNIA—W 38-6665959+33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 7HCLEMSON#14L 31-34978484+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 21APENN STATE#5L 10-38939797-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB80TAL43PERF80RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
KEVIN JENNINGSQB SERET
★3—9087%+22—
8
PRESTON STONEQB SERET
★4★35212%+33FELL
6
KELDRIC LUSTERQB JURET
★3★3141%—HELD
14
TYLER ARONSONQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
14
CHARLIE FISERQB SERET
UNR—00%——
25
WILLIAM FIERROQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB61TAL73PERF61RET30ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
BRASHARD SMITHRB SEPORTAL · MIAMI
★4★39865%+23FELL
11
LJ JOHNSON JR.RB SERET
★4★37321%+17FELL
22
JAYLAN KNIGHTONRB SERET
★4★3517%-17FELL
29
ZACH HERNANDEZRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—202%——
26
ZANE MINORSRB SERET
UNR—91%-38—
0
CAMAR WHEATONRB JURET
★4—00%+1—
▾WR/TE80TAL75PERF77RET77ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
88
MATTHEW HIBNERTE SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN
★4★39263%+13FELL
9
KEY'SHAWN SMITHWR SERET
★4★38521%+25FELL
13
RODERICK DANIELS JR.WR SERET
★3—8421%+24—
2
JORDAN HUDSONWR SERET
★4★48018%+13HELD
5
MOOCHIE DIXONWR SERET
★4—7716%+29—
12
JAKE BAILEYWR SERET
★3—6811%+23—
3
ROMELLO BRINSONWR SERET
★4★3669%+13FELL
82
RJ MARYLANDTE SERET
★4—6422%+28—
44
STONE EBYTE SERET
★3—5011%——
0
DERRICK MCFALLWR SONO SNAPS
★4—455%——
5
ADAM MOORETE SORET
★3★3262%—HELD
30
CARTER CAMPBELLWR SERET
UNR—261%——
80
ASHTON COZARTWR SEPORTAL · OREGON
★4★3241%—FELL
10
JAMARION CARROLLWR FRRET
★3★3231%—HELD
84
TRIPP RIORDANTE JURET
★3—222%——
83
CASE HOLLERONWR SORET
UNR—150%——
15
JAXSON LAVENDERWR SORET
★3★3110%—HELD
32
JOEY BRUSZERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
1
RANDY REECEWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
46
MARKUS SCHUMACHERTE SORET
UNR—00%——
39
KEATON CHEVESWR JURET
UNR—00%——
86
DAVIS HAWKINSTE JURET
UNR—00%——
35
HENRY STICKLERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
33
MEYER PEREIRAWR SORET
UNR—00%——
36
COOPER REEDWR SORET
UNR—00%——
34
LANCE BEEGHLEYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
42
WILL LOCKETE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
JAKE PEVETOWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL66TAL81PERF66RET77n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL73TAL78PERF73RET46n=7 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB67TAL79PERF67RET96n=8 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB66TAL65PERF66RET84n=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS8 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DERRICK MCFALLHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
KA'DAVION DOTSON-WALKERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
BRANDON BOOKERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
WILLIAM NETTLESHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KING LARGEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TYLER ARONSONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
ALEXANDER RODGERSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ZACH SMITHHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN17 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SAVION BYRDOKLAHOMAOT★4★4
JONATHAN JEFFERSONGEORGIADL★4★3
ANTHONY BOOKER JR.ARKANSASDLUNR★3
ASHTON COZARTOREGONWR★4★3
ANDREW CHAMBLEEARKANSASOT★4★3
BRASHARD SMITHMIAMIWR★4★3
OMARI ABOROHIO STATEEDGE★4★3
MIKE LOCKHARTWEST VIRGINIADL★3★3
JAHFARI HARVEYMIAMIEDGE★4★3
BILLY WALTON IIITEXASEDGE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT36 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRANSON HICKMANOKLAHOMAOL★3★3
MARCUS BRYANTMISSOURIOL★3★3
BRYAN MASSEYHOUSTONDB★3★3
JAYDEN JONESARKANSAS STATEDE★3★3
VELTON GARDNERTEXASRB★3UNR
DYLAN FRAZIERSAM HOUSTONDT★3★3
DAEMIAN WIMBERLYUTSADE★3★3
CHRIS MEGGINSONELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
HYRIN WHITEELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
CHARLES WOODSELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES13%2 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS11%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#107NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 13 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8619COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2016 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST92% BACK92th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG92% BACK92th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR77%77th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST84%84th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE