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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
ACC|TROY TAYLOR|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
STANFORD90 FPIACC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
70FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
75%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
84%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#303 BC / 28
BC RATIO
16%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs3.4-8.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-10.8
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE35
PERFORMANCE35
TALENT64
CONTINUITY75
DEFENSE38
PERFORMANCE38
TALENT67
CONTINUITY84
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
69MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HTCU—L 27-34808282-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HCAL POLY—W 41-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20ASYRACUSE#20W 26-24666666-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ACLEMSON#14L 14-40978484-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HVIRGINIA TECH—L 7-31637878-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ANOTRE DAME#2L 7-49939595-71BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HSMU#12L 10-40829292-68BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HWAKE FOREST—L 24-27493030-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ANC STATE—L 28-59725959-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HLOUISVILLE—W 38-35748585-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ACALIFORNIA—L 21-24665959-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ASAN JOSÉ STATE—L 31-34163232-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB68TAL56PERF68RET87ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
ASHTON DANIELSQB SERET
★3★38072%-3HELD
8
JUSTIN LAMSONQB JURET
★3★35514%-42HELD
7
ELIJAH BROWNQB SONO SNAPS
★4★35413%-22FELL
17
CHARLIE MIRERQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
9
MYLES JACKSONQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB36TAL72PERF36RET21ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
MICAH FORDRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—8447%-44—
5
CHRIS DAVIS JR.RB SONO SNAPS
★3—6520%+6—
3
COLE TABBRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★35612%-17HELD
26
SEDRICK IRVINRB SERET
★3—5612%+26—
9
RYAN BUTLERRB SERET
UNR—468%-45—
34
CHAMP HAMPTONRB JURET
★3—121%——
36
KENAJ WASHINGTONRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE49TAL70PERF50RET66ONE OWNERn=5 · 8 METRICS · 36 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
ELIC AYOMANORWR SORET
★3—9935%+25—
86
SAM ROUSHTE SERET
★4—9575%+40—
3
EMMETT MOSLEY VWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★38824%+10HELD
19
TIGER BACHMEIERWR SERET
★3★38119%-38HELD
4
ISMAEL CISSEWR SERET
★3★37617%-28HELD
88
BENJI BLACKBURNTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—6322%——
4
JACKSON HARRISWR JURET
★4★3504%-22FELL
6
MUDIA REUBENWR SERET
★3★3301%+21HELD
85
SHIELD TAYLORTE SERET
★3—242%——
3
MARCUS BROWNWR SONO SNAPS
★3★2181%—FELL
8
JAYSON RAINESWR SERET
★3★3150%-62HELD
87
AIDEN BLACKTE SONO SNAPS
★3—111%——
11
BRYCE FARRELLWR SERET
★3—00%-46—
80
DAVID KASEMERVISZWR SERET
UNR—00%——
49
EVAN JACKSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
LUKAS UNGARTE SERET
★4★300%—FELL
43
AHMARI BORDENWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
89
GRIFFIN WAISSTE SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON
UNR★200%—EMERGED
40
JASON THOMPSONWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
84
CHICO HOLTTE JURET
★3—00%——
20
CHASE FARRELLWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
82
TYLER KUOWR JURET
UNR—00%——
18
MYLES LIBMANWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
32
OWEN VAN LOBEN SELSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL39TAL62PERF39RET84n=7 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL55TAL62PERF56RET87n=7 · 5 METRICS · 27 OBS
▸LB59TAL78PERF59RET95n=8 · 11 METRICS · 57 OBS
▸DB44TAL59PERF44RET73n=11 · 8 METRICS · 57 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BENEDICT UMEHHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
ELIJAH BROWNHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
DYLAN STEPHENSONHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
EMMETT MOSLEY VHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CHARLIE HOITINKHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
CHRIS DAVIS JR.HS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ZIRON BROWNHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
COLE TABBHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MAXWELL RICHARDSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
BRANDON NICHOLSONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN3 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CLAY PATTERSONUNLVDLUNR★3
JAHSIAH GALVANNORTHERN IOWALB★3★3
JAIVION GREENWASHINGTONCBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT21 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALAKA'I GILMANUTAHS★3★3
JAXSON MOITENNESSEEDL★3★3
LANCE KENELEYARIZONALB★3★3
BEN YUROSEKGEORGIATE★3UNR
EJ SMITHTEXAS A&MRB★4★3
JAMES POGORELCDUKEOL★4★3
TERIAN WILLIAMS IIBUCKNELLS★3★3
JIMMY WYRICKUTSAS★3★3
ARI PATUNORTH ALABAMAQB★3★3
LOGAN BERZINSELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES26%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS26%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#30NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 28 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8669COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
414 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST83% BACK83th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG83% BACK83th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR84%84th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR87%87th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST73%73th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE