SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2018 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
BIG 12|GARY PATTERSON|—RECORD6-6|CONF—
TCU47 FPIB12 · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
78FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#254 BC / 22
BC RATIO
19%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
6-6ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.3
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
66MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1HSOUTHERN—W 55-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7ASMU—W 42-12472929+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15HOHIO STATE#3L 28-401009696-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22ATEXAS#9L 16-31947676-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29HIOWA STATE—W 17-14637171-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HTEXAS TECH—L 14-17587272-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20HOKLAHOMA#4L 27-52939898-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 27AKANSAS—L 26-27482323+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 3HKANSAS STATE—W 14-13554141+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10AWEST VIRGINIA#20L 10-47748282-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17ABAYLOR—W 16-9774949+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24HOKLAHOMA STATE—W 31-24748484-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
17
GRAYSON MUEHLSTEINQB SERET
UNR—00%——
4
MIKE COLLINSQB SERET
UNR—00%——
5
JUSTIN ROGERSQB SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
10
MIKE COLLINSQB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET57NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
33
SEWO OLONILUARB SERET
★4—00%——
3
EMARI DEMERCADORB SERET
UNR—00%——
6
DARIUS ANDERSONRB SERET
★4—00%——
30
OMEGA STALLWORTHRB JURET
UNR—00%——
49
REGINALD COLERB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
24
DERYL REYNOLDSRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
38
JOSE MIRANDARB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
TE'VAILANCE HUNTWR SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
88
ARTAYVIOUS LYNNTE SERET
★3—00%——
14
KARSON RINGDAHLWR SERET
UNR—00%——
8
AL'DONTRE DAVISWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
1
JALEN REAGORWR JURET
★4—00%——
7
JOHN STEPHENS JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
4
TAYE BARBERWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
11
DERIUS DAVISWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
84
COLE NOVAKTE SERET
UNR—00%——
81
PRO WELLSTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
22
JARRISON STEWARTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
87
TREVONTAE HIGHTSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
25
KAVONTAE TURPINWR SERET
UNR—00%——
2
JAELAN AUSTINWR SERET
UNR—00%——
34
NI'JEEL MEEKINGWR FRRET
★2—00%——
2
KENEDY SNELLWR SERET
★3—00%——
11
DYLAN THOMASWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
BRYSON JACKSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
28
PATRICK ZELLERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
38
DAYTHAN DAVISTE SERET
UNR—00%——
47
CARTER WARETE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
RYAN MARTINWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
JASON D'ARMOREWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
NIVEN RAJWR JURET
UNR—00%——
86
MICHAEL BYRD JR.WR YRRET
UNR—00%——
27
JACK HEATHCOTTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
11
MIKEL BARKLEYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
82
YISHAI YABLONWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
14
CHASE VAN WAGONERWR —NO SNAPS
★3—00%——
83
BRADY STRINGERWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
AUSTIN AHRENDTWR —RET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JUSTIN ROGERSHS RECRUITDUAL★4UNR
ATANZA VONGORHS RECRUITS★4UNR
TEVAILANCE HUNTHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
FABIAN FRANKLINHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
BRYSON JACKSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TREVON MOEHRIGHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BEN WILSONHS RECRUITILB★3UNR
TAYE BARBERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JOHN STEPHENSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JACOBY SIMPSONHS RECRUITILB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT22 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISAIAH GRAHAMLOUISIANA TECHWR★4UNR
TRAVIN HOWARDNFL DRAFT R7LBUNR—
MATT PRYORNFL DRAFT R6GUNR—
EMANUEL PORTERNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
NICK ORRNOT LISTEDSUNR—
SHAUN NIXONNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
STACY BOYDNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
GARRETT KAUFMANNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
DESMON WHITENOT LISTEDWRUNR—
LUCAS GRAVELLENOT LISTEDLSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#25NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
4OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8728COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST37% BACK37th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG37% BACK37th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE