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● LIVE|2018 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›TEXAS›2018TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
SEC|TOM HERMAN|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
TEXAS#9 AP 19 FPISEC · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
94FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#319 BC / 28
BC RATIO
50%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
9-4ACTUALvs7.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.1
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1AMARYLAND—L 29-34835555+21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 8HTULSA—W 28-21221818+58BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15HUSC—W 37-14987474+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22HTCU—W 31-16786767+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29AKANSAS STATE—W 19-14554141+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6AOKLAHOMA#4W 48-45939898-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13HBAYLOR—W 23-17774949+27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 27AOKLAHOMA STATE—L 35-38748484-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 3HWEST VIRGINIA#20L 41-42748282-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10ATEXAS TECH—W 41-34587272+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17HIOWA STATE—W 24-10637171+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AKANSAS—W 24-17482323+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 1AOKLAHOMA#4L 27-39939898-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
SHANE BUECHELEQB SERET
★4—00%——
11
SAM EHLINGERQB SERET
★4—00%——
3
CAMERON RISINGQB —NO SNAPS
★4—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET57NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
KEAONTAY INGRAMRB SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
5
TRE WATSONRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
32
DANIEL YOUNGRB SERET
★3—00%——
22
KYLE PORTERRB SERET
★4—00%——
28
KIRK JOHNSONRB SERET
UNR—00%——
41
TRISTIAN HOUSTONRB JURET
UNR—00%——
30
TONEIL CARTERRB SORET
UNR—00%——
37
JAREN WATKINSRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
33
TIM YODERRB —RET
UNR—00%——
36
KAMARI WILLIAMSRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
COLLIN JOHNSONWR SERET
★4—00%——
7
MALCOLM EPPSTE SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
6
DEVIN DUVERNAYWR SERET
★4—00%——
47
ANDREW BECKTE SERET
UNR—00%——
13
JERROD HEARDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
1
JOHN BURTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
LIL'JORDAN HUMPHREYWR JURET
★3—00%——
6
JOSHUA MOOREWR JURET
UNR—00%——
39
MONTRELL ESTELLWR SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
80
CADE BREWERTE SERET
★3—00%——
13
BRENNAN EAGLESWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
86
JORDAN POUNCEYWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
87
AUSTIN HIBBETTSTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
14
KAI JARMONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
PHILIPP MOELLERWR —RET
UNR—00%——
89
CHRIS FEHRTE —RET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CADEN STERNSHS RECRUITS★5UNR
B.J. FOSTERHS RECRUITS★5UNR
JALEN GREENHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
DEMARVION OVERSHOWNHS RECRUITS★4UNR
BRENNAN EAGLESHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
ANTHONY COOKHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
JOSHUA MOOREHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
AL'VONTE WOODARDHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
D'SHAWN JAMISONHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
AYODELE ADEOYEHS RECRUITILB★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT17 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOHN BONNEYTEXAS TECHDBUNRUNR
EDWIN FREEMANFLORIDA INTERNATIONALLBUNRUNR
MALIK JEFFERSONNFL DRAFT R3LBUNR—
DESHON ELLIOTTNFL DRAFT R6DBUNR—
MICHAEL DICKSONNFL DRAFT R5PUNR—
KENDALL MOORENOT LISTEDTEUNR—
ANTWUAN DAVISNOT LISTEDDBUNR—
NAASHON HUGHESNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
POONA FORDNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
ARMANTI FOREMANNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#3NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
19OF 28 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9155COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST82% BACK82th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG82% BACK82th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE