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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
SEC|STEVE SARKISIAN|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
TEXAS#25 AP 7 FPISEC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
96FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
12%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#522 BC / 30
BC RATIO
66%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.3-2.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+14.5
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE94
PERFORMANCE94
TALENT89
CONTINUITY12
DEFENSE89
PERFORMANCE89
TALENT83
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
71MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HUL MONROE—W 52-10141111+84BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HALABAMA#5L 19-201009898-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17HUTSA—W 41-20466464+31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24ATEXAS TECH—L 34-37696969+26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1HWEST VIRGINIA—W 38-20695252+43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8AOKLAHOMA—W 49-0948686+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15HIOWA STATE—W 24-21546060+35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22AOKLAHOMA STATE—L 34-41727777+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5AKANSAS STATE#14W 34-27539494+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HTCU#2L 10-17779696-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19AKANSAS—W 55-14505454+41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HBAYLOR—W 38-27717878+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 29AWASHINGTON#8L 20-27858787+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB59TAL99PERF59RET28ONE OWNERn=2 · 6 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
QUINN EWERSQB JUNO SNAPS
★5—7872%-16—
1
HUDSON CARDQB SERET
★4★46128%+25HELD
19
BEN BALLARDQB SERET
UNR★200%—EMERGED
14
CHARLES WRIGHTQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
6
MAALIK MURPHYQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
19
COLE LOURDQB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
18
JOE TATUMQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB86TAL91PERF86RET95ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
BIJAN ROBINSONRB JURET
★5—9853%+17—
2
ROSCHON JOHNSONRB SERET
★4—7923%+12—
7
KEILAN ROBINSONRB SERET
★5★36312%+26FELL
11
D.J. HARRISFB SERET
★4—392%——
11
D.J. HARRISFB SERET
★4—392%——
24
JONATHON BROOKSRB SORET
★4—516%+32—
0
SAVION REDRB SENO SNAPS
★3★3393%—HELD
23
JAYDON BLUERB JUNO SNAPS
★4—312%-66—
25
KY WOODSRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
27
COLIN PAGERB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE73TAL90PERF71RET40ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 32 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
JA'TAVION SANDERSTE JURET
★5—9970%——
13
JORDAN WHITTINGTONWR SERET
★5—9338%0—
1
XAVIER WORTHYWR JURET
★4—9237%+18—
85
GUNNAR HELMTE SERET
★3—6922%——
2
CASEY CAINWR SENO SNAPS
★3★36413%+2HELD
16
TARIQUE MILTONWR SENO SNAPS
★3—568%-28—
9
JAHLEEL BILLINGSLEYTE SENO SNAPS
★4—363%+30—
0
BRENEN THOMPSONWR SENO SNAPS
★4★3362%—FELL
81
JUAN DAVISTE SERET
★3★3353%—HELD
48
PATRICK BAYOUTHTE SERET
★3—211%——
15
AGIYE HALLWR SONO SNAPS
★4★3201%—FELL
83
GABE SULSERWR SENO SNAPS
★2—130%——
5
TROY OMEIREWR SERET
★4★3130%—FELL
12
JADEN ALEXISWR SERET
★4★300%—FELL
87
PARKER ALFORDWR SERET
★2—00%——
89
BRAYDEN LIEBROCKTE JURET
★4—00%——
18
ISAIAH NEYORWR SENO SNAPS
★2★300%—ROSE
42
NATHAN HATTERTE SERET
UNR—00%——
86
PAXTON ANDERSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
49
THATCHER MILTONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
QUINN MERRITTWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
38
REMY PATSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
39
HAMILTON MCMARTINWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
MYLES HILLTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
82
GUS ASELTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
REESE BEAUCHAMPWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL65TAL85PERF66RET4n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL55TAL85PERF55RET92n=10 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
▸LB55TAL69PERF55RET87n=7 · 10 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸DB64TAL90PERF64RET69n=11 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DJ CAMPBELLHS RECRUITIOL★5UNR
KELVIN BANKS JR.HS RECRUITOT★5UNR
TERRANCE BROOKSHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
NETO UMEOZULUHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
J'MOND TAPPHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
JUSTICE FINKLEYHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
BJ ALLEN JR.HS RECRUITS★4UNR
BRENEN THOMPSONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JAYLON GUILBEAUHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
JARAY BLEDSOEHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHRIS ADIMORASMUS★4UNR
MYRON WARRENTEXAS STATEDT★4★4
MARCUS WASHINGTONNEBRASKAWR★4★3
AYODELE ADEOYESACRAMENTO STATEDE★4★4
CASEY THOMPSONNEBRASKAQB★4★3
B.J. FOSTERSAM HOUSTONDB★5UNR
JARED WILEYTCUTE★3UNR
MOOCHIE DIXONSMUWR★4UNR
TYLER OWENSTEXAS TECHDB★4UNR
GABRIEL WATSONELIGIBILITY UPRBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#5NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
22OF 30 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9082COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST60% BACK60th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG60% BACK60th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR4%4th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR28%28th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST69%69th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE