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HOME›TEAMS›TEXAS STATE›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
PAC-12|JAKE SPAVITAL|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
TEXAS STATE114 FPIPAC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
36FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
2%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1330 BC / 2
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-5.3
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE20
PERFORMANCE20
TALENT51
CONTINUITY2
DEFENSE55
PERFORMANCE55
TALENT34
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
42MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3ANEVADA—L 14-382444+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 41-123422+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17ABAYLOR—L 7-42717878-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HHOUSTON CHRISTIAN—W 34-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5OCT 1AJAMES MADISON—L 13-4056262-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HAPP STATE—W 36-24335050-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15ATROY#19L 14-17356767-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22HSOUTHERN MISS—L 14-20393939-16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5AUL MONROE—L 30-31141111+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12ASOUTH ALABAMA—L 21-38377575-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HARKANSAS STATE—W 16-13371919+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26HLOUISIANA—L 13-41345252-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB49TAL19PERF49RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
LAYNE HATCHERQB SENO SNAPS
★3★394100%+14HELD
4
TY EVANSQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
10
TANNER PREWITQB SORET
UNR—00%——
12
CJ ROGERSQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB56TAL25PERF56RET38ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
LINCOLN PARERB SENO SNAPS
★2—9251%+13—
11
CALVIN HILLRB JURET
★3★37424%-1HELD
28
JAHMYL JETERRB SERET
★3—6215%+10—
20
JOSH BERRYRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3539%+13HELD
15
DAMARIUS GOODRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—131%——
34
EMMANUEL ABDALLAHRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—131%——
30
TRENT LACYRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE46TAL42PERF46RET74ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 51 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
CHARLES BROWNWR SENO SNAPS
★3—8016%+15—
6
ASHTYN HAWKINSWR SERET
UNR★37815%+30EMERGED
RONTAVIUS GROVESWR SERET
★3★37514%+2HELD
84
KORDELL RODGERSTE SORET
★3—7412%——
17
JULIAN ORTEGA-JONESWR SERET
★2★27112%-5HELD
18
MARCELL BARBEEWR SERET
UNR—7111%+19—
1
JAVEN BANKSWR SERET
UNR—7111%+30—
41
TYLER HUFFTE SERET
UNR—7047%-11—
6
DONNOVAN MOORERWR SORET
★2★2638%-28HELD
9
DRUE JACKSONWR JURET
★3—606%-20—
83
MICAH HILTSTE SERET
★2★35119%+4ROSE
86
TITUS LYONSTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—4917%-28—
5
DEMARCUS GREGORYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3483%+7HELD
19
DENNIS ROBINSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3442%-52HELD
87
JACKSON LANAMTE JURET
★2—4210%——
80
CHANDLER SPEIGHTSWR SERET
UNR—382%-59—
89
AUSTIN GROESCHELTE SORET
UNR—357%——
32
JAMES PALMERTE JUNO SNAPS
★2—40%——
8
WAYDALE JONESWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
88
JADEN MITCHELLWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
84
AHMIRR ROBINSONWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
85
BROOKS MCCOYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
24
DJ JOHNSONTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
27
KANNON WEBBWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
ISAAC NORRISWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
BRANDON TREGGSWR SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
87
GAGE PATRICKTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL64TAL64PERF64RET19n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL53TAL48PERF53RET37n=6 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸LB32TAL8PERF32RET80n=4 · 11 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸DB58TAL34PERF58RET79n=8 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS2 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAVID HENSLEYHS RECRUITIOL★2UNR
BERNOCK IYAHS RECRUITCB★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT20 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRADY MCBRIDEAPP STATEQBUNR★3
ZION CHILDRESSKENTUCKYDB★3UNR
DC WILLIAMSELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
ERIC SUTTONELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
MARKEVEON COLEMANELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
JAQUEL PIERCEELIGIBILITY UPDL★2—
NICK MCCANNELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
CALEB TWYFORDELIGIBILITY UPWR★2—
CAEVEON PATTONELIGIBILITY UPDL★2—
TREVIS GRAHAMELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#133NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 2 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.7945COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST42% BACK42th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG42% BACK42th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR19%19th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST79%79th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE