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● LIVE|2017 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2017 FINAL
BIG 12|KLIFF KINGSBURY|—RECORD6-6|CONF—
TEXAS TECH42 FPIB12 · 2017 SEASON
TALENT
63FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#491 BC / 11
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2017 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+2.6
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
66MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HEASTERN WASHINGTON—W 56-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16HARIZONA STATE—W 52-45854747+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23AHOUSTON—W 27-24586767-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HOKLAHOMA STATE#14L 34-41728989-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7AKANSAS—W 65-19491111+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AWEST VIRGINIA—L 35-46686262-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HIOWA STATE—L 13-31586666-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AOKLAHOMA#3L 27-49899595-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HKANSAS STATE—L 35-42507878-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ABAYLOR—W 38-24744141+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HTCU#9L 3-27778888-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24ATEXAS—W 27-23917777-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET9NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
JETT DUFFEYQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
16
NIC SHIMONEKQB —RET
UNR—00%——
17
MCLANE CARTERQB SERET
UNR—00%——
12
COLT GARRETTQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET99NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
30
CALEB WOODWARDRB —RET
UNR—00%——
24
TRE KINGRB SERET
UNR—00%——
4
JUSTIN STOCKTONRB —RET
UNR—00%——
32
DESMOND NISBYRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
2
DEMARCUS FELTONRB SERET
UNR—00%——
29
MASON REEDFB SERET
UNR—00%——
21
DA'LEON WARDRB SORET
★3—00%——
30
JAX WELCHRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
46
HENRY HOWARDFB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
JAKE LEVRIERRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
QUAN SHORTSWR —RET
UNR—00%——
11
DONTA THOMPSONTE SERET
UNR—00%——
41
TYLER CARRTE SORET
UNR—00%——
11
DERRICK WILLIESWR —RET
UNR—00%——
14
DYLAN CANTRELLWR —RET
UNR—00%——
13
CAMERON BATSONWR —RET
UNR—00%——
2
KEKE COUTEEWR —RET
UNR—00%——
20
JOJO ROBINSONWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
JA'DEION HIGHWR SERET
UNR—00%——
8
DE'QUAN BOWMANWR SERET
UNR—00%——
4
ANTOINE WESLEYWR JURET
★3—00%——
9
T.J. VASHERWR SERET
★4—00%——
19
ZACH AUSTINWR SERET
UNR—00%——
40
CONNOR KILLIANTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
TRAVIS KOONTZTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
84
NATE SHELTONWR —NO SNAPS
★3—00%——
82
HUNTER ISOMWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
BRANDT SCHILLINGWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
XAVIER CASTILLEWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACK ANDERSONHS RECRUITOG★4UNR
XAVIER MARTINHS RECRUITDUAL★3UNR
WILL FARRARHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
DAWSON DEATONHS RECRUITOC★3UNR
QUINCY ADDISONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
NELSON MBANASORHS RECRUITSDE★3UNR
RIKO JEFFERSHS RECRUITILB★3UNR
JOHN DAVISHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CASEY VERHULSTHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
ADRIAN FRYEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PATRICK MAHOMESNFL DRAFT R1QBUNR—
TONY BROWNELIGIBILITY UPWR★2—
COREY DAUPHINEELIGIBILITY UPRBUNR—
BREIDEN FEHOKOELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
THIERRY NGUEMANOT LISTEDDBUNR—
ONDRE PIPKINSNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
REGINALD DAVIS IIINOT LISTEDWRUNR—
KEENON WARDNOT LISTEDDBUNR—
QUINTON WHITE JR.NOT LISTEDWRUNR—
KRIS WILLIAMSNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#49NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 11 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8636COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST40% BACK40th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG40% BACK40th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR9%9th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE