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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
BIG 12|JOEY MCGUIRE|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
TEXAS TECH28 FPIB12 · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
69FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
13%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#431 BC / 18
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+4.1
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE82
PERFORMANCE82
TALENT61
CONTINUITY13
DEFENSE85
PERFORMANCE85
TALENT46
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
75MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HMURRAY STATE—W 63-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 10HHOUSTON—W 33-30585757+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17ANC STATE—L 14-27756363+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HTEXAS#25W 37-34969595-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1AKANSAS STATE#14L 28-37539494-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8AOKLAHOMA STATE—L 31-41727777-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22HWEST VIRGINIA—W 48-10695252+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29HBAYLOR—L 17-45717878-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5ATCU#2L 24-34779696-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HKANSAS—W 43-28505454+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19AIOWA STATE—W 14-10546060+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26HOKLAHOMA—W 51-48948686-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28AOLE MISS—W 42-25849090-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB54TAL83PERF54RET100ROTATIONn=3 · 8 METRICS · 24 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
DONOVAN SMITHQB SERET
★3★37338%+20HELD
9
TYLER SHOUGHQB SERET
★4★37032%+31FELL
2
BEHREN MORTONQB SERET
★4—6830%-27—
▾RB54TAL54PERF54RET96ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
TAHJ BROOKSRB SERET
★3—9451%+26—
4
SARODORICK THOMPSONRB SERET
★3—9142%+17—
CAM'RON VALDEZRB JURET
★3★3384%+40HELD
22
BRYSON DONNELLRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3363%-23HELD
25
BLAKE BEDWELLRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—90%——
32
JADEN MORRISRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE43TAL60PERF49RET81ROTATIONn=11 · 8 METRICS · 71 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
JERAND BRADLEYWR SERET
★3★39418%+18HELD
4
MYLES PRICEWR SERET
★3★39117%-8HELD
80
MASON THARPTE SERET
★3—8341%-17—
14
XAVIER WHITEWR SERET
UNR—8313%+23—
7
TREY CLEVELANDWR JURET
★3★38012%-13HELD
88
BAYLOR CUPPTE SENO SNAPS
★4—7937%-27—
11
LOIC FOUONJIWR SERET
★4★37711%+15FELL
20
NEHEMIAH MARTINEZ IWR JURET
UNR—7511%+10—
BRADY BOYDWR SENO SNAPS
★3★37510%-12HELD
84
JJ SPARKMANWR SERET
★3★3636%-10HELD
43
HENRY TEETERTE SERET
★2—6120%-18—
1
JORDAN BROWNWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3361%—HELD
13
JAYDEN YORKTE SERET
UNR★3201%—EMERGED
3
COY EAKINWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—170%——
14
DREW HOCUTTWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—130%——
19
HAYDON WIGINTONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—130%——
47
CHARLIE ROBINSONTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—91%——
1
TK KINGWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
0
NATHANEAL FLOYDWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
26
JASON LLOYDTE JURET
★2—00%——
5
CHADARIUS TOWNSENDWR SERET
★4—00%——
33
MATTHEW YOUNGTE SERET
★2★200%—HELD
15
CAMERON CANTRELLWR JURET
★3—00%——
2
HUT GRAHAMWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
83
JACK ESPARZATE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
ZACK MCCOWNTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL41TAL59PERF41RET0n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL79TAL48PERF79RET66n=6 · 7 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸LB60TAL62PERF60RET78n=8 · 11 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸DB54TAL38PERF54RET94n=8 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MO HORNHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
JOSEPH ADEDIREHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
LANDON HULLABYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JALON PEOPLESHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BRYSON DONNELLHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
TRE'VON MCALPINEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TY KANAHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
TAVARES ELSTONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ERIK GRAYHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
SYNCERE MASSEYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT19 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEVIN DREWNEBRASKADL★3UNR
NELSON MBANASORTEXAS STATEDL★3UNR
HENRY COLOMBIMARSHALLQB★3UNR
BRANDON BOUYER-RANDLEUCONNLB★3UNR
COLIN SCHOOLERELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
DAMARCUS FIELDSELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
RIKO JEFFERSELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
TRAVIS KOONTZELIGIBILITY UPTE★3—
KAYLON GEIGERELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
MCLANE MANNIXELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#43NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8684COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST66% BACK66th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG66% BACK66th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST94%94th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE