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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG 12|JOEY MCGUIRE|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
TEXAS TECH39 FPIB12 · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
72FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
75%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
64%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-11IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#285 BC / 29
BC RATIO
14%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
6-6ACTUALvs6.0-6.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-0.2
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE44
PERFORMANCE44
TALENT72
CONTINUITY75
DEFENSE77
PERFORMANCE77
TALENT48
CONTINUITY64
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
63MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2AWYOMING—L 33-35114242+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HOREGON#6L 30-38939898-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HTARLETON STATE—W 41-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23AWEST VIRGINIA—L 13-20647272-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HHOUSTON—W 49-28652929+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7ABAYLOR—W 39-14672727+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HKANSAS STATE#18L 21-38519090-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21ABYU—L 14-27474343+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HTCU—W 35-28877474-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AKANSAS#23W 16-13558282-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HUCF—W 24-23625858+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24ATEXAS#3L 7-57969696-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 16HCALIFORNIA—W 34-14685050+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB45TAL87PERF45RET88ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BEHREN MORTONQB SERET
★4—8062%-8—
9
TYLER SHOUGHQB SERET
★4★36526%+25FELL
4
JAKE STRONGQB SONO SNAPS
★3★35212%-34HELD
4
WILL BURNSQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB62TAL75PERF62RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
TAHJ BROOKSRB SERET
★3—10086%+29—
CAM'RON VALDEZRB JURET
★3★36213%+31HELD
22
BRYSON DONNELLRB SERET
★3★3171%-31HELD
24
ANQUAN WILLISRB FRTRUE FR
★3★400%—ROSE
23
JMAURY DAVISRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
32
JADEN MORRISRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE51TAL63PERF51RET79ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 54 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
JERAND BRADLEYWR SERET
★3★38921%+6HELD
88
BAYLOR CUPPTE SERET
★4—8548%-29—
14
XAVIER WHITEWR SERET
UNR—8216%+22—
3
COY EAKINWR SERET
★3—8216%-1—
4
MYLES PRICEWR SERET
★3★37814%+1HELD
80
MASON THARPTE SERET
★3—7737%-20—
10
DRAE MCCRAYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—7513%-23—
1
JORDAN BROWNWR SERET
★3★37011%-12HELD
13
JAYDEN YORKTE SERET
UNR★35010%—EMERGED
11
LOIC FOUONJIWR SERET
★4★3453%+16FELL
84
JJ SPARKMANWR SERET
★3★3432%-26HELD
BRADY BOYDWR SERET
★3★3432%-39HELD
43
HENRY TEETERTE SERET
★2—415%-18—
20
NEHEMIAH MARTINEZ IWR JURET
UNR—311%+12—
0
NATHANEAL FLOYDWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
19
HAYDON WIGINTONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
1
TK KINGWR SERET
★3—00%——
5
MARQUEZ STEVENSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%+16—
47
CHARLIE ROBINSONTE JURET
UNR—00%——
33
MATTHEW YOUNGTE SERET
★2★200%—HELD
14
DREW HOCUTTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
4
T.J. WESTWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
6
KELBY VALSINWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
84
D.J. CRESTWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
83
JACK ESPARZATE SERET
UNR—00%——
18
AIDEN MEEKSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL66TAL76PERF66RET71n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL57TAL51PERF57RET75n=5 · 7 METRICS · 28 OBS
▸LB38TAL52PERF38RET69n=11 · 11 METRICS · 68 OBS
▸DB69TAL43PERF69RET55n=10 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS21 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN SANFORDHS RECRUITS★4UNR
ISAIAH CRAWFORDHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
BRENDEN JORDANHS RECRUITS★4UNR
DYLAN SPENCERHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
NICK FATTIGHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
JUSTIN HORNEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
TJ WESTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ANQUAN WILLISHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ANSEL NEDOREHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
KELBY VALSINHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN4 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
STEVE LINTONSYRACUSEEDGE★3★4
CJ BASKERVILLESAN DIEGO STATESUNR★3
DEANDRAE MCCRAYAUSTIN PEAYWRUNR★3
RUSTY STAATSWESTERN KENTUCKYOT★2★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
REGGIE PEARSONOKLAHOMADB★3UNR
DONOVAN SMITHHOUSTONQB★3★3
TREY CLEVELANDNORTH TEXASWR★3★3
PHILIP BLIDIINDIANADL★3★3
KOBEE MINORINDIANADB★3★3
CADE BRIGGSARIZONA STATEOL★3★3
MICHAEL SHANAHANWESTERN MICHIGANOLUNR★2
ETHAN CARDEBOISE STATEOTUNR★3
WESTON WRIGHTELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
MARQUIS WATERSELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES42%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS14%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#28NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
5OF 29 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8755COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
718 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
16TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
1
2
2
6
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-0.3 TO +3.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +9 W
IMPROVED11 OF 16
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST65% BACK65th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG65% BACK65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR71%71th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR88%88th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST55%55th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE