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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|JASON CANDLE|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
TOLEDO52 FPIMAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
46FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
60%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
74%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#730 BC / 21
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs10.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-2.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+19.4
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE51
PERFORMANCE51
TALENT43
CONTINUITY60
DEFENSE82
PERFORMANCE82
TALENT50
CONTINUITY74
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30AKENTUCKY—L 16-24815151+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HWESTERN KENTUCKY—W 45-21285050+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HMORGAN STATE—W 60-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20AWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 13-14244343+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HAKRON—W 45-3251414+51BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11ABOWLING GREEN—L 23-28231717+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HKENT STATE—W 45-10744+61BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AWASHINGTON STATE—L 7-28315656+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 5HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 42-3966+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 12AMIAMI (OH)—W 24-3374040+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HBALL STATE—W 38-91733+62BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ACENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 21-3122626+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23ALOUISVILLE—L 22-27648282-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB74TAL13PERF74RET83ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
TUCKER GLEASONQB SERET
★3★38377%+10HELD
7
KALIEB OSBORNEQB FRRET
★3★36117%+27HELD
6
JOHN ALAN RICHTERQB JURET
★3—446%+28—
13
JAKE DEHAANQB JURET
UNR—00%——
11
WALTER MOSESQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
17
TREY WHIRLEYQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB43TAL41PERF43RET17ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
CHIP TRAYANUMRB SEPORTAL · KENTUCKY
★4★39652%+7FELL
3
KENJI CHRISTIANRB JUPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA A&T
★3★38028%+36HELD
8
CONNOR WALENDZAKRB SERET
★3—6212%-50—
32
WILLIE SHAW IIIRB SERET
★3—363%+9—
25
MIKE DRENNEN IIRB JURET
UNR—292%+36—
27
DANE NAUMANRB SORET
UNR—262%-52—
22
LUCAS LAROCHERB SERET
UNR—161%——
29
TANNER RUBINSTEINFB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
20
SHAWN SIMEONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
23
NOAH SANDERSRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
28
KADALE WILLIAMSRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE41TAL41PERF46RET44ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
89
JACOB PETERSENTE SEPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
UNR★39868%-3EMERGED
2
JUNIOR VANDEROSS IIIWR SERET
★3—9732%+30—
9
TRAYVON RUDOLPHWR SEPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
★3★38421%+13HELD
11
RYDER TREADWAYWR FRTRUE FR
★3★37112%+33HELD
81
ERIC HOLLEY IIIWR SERET
★3—7012%-47—
5
TERRELL CROSBY JR.WR SERET
★3★36710%-13HELD
34
CONNOR JONESTE SERET
★3—6416%——
43
SAM LEETE SERET
UNR—559%——
19
JAVON BROWNWR FRRET
★3★3544%+34HELD
13
COOPER RUSKWR SERET
UNR—504%-9—
14
CC EZIRIMTE SERET
UNR★3455%+14EMERGED
12
BRYSON HAMMERWR JURET
UNR—453%——
9
JULIAN ALLENWR SORET
★3★3362%—HELD
87
SEAN PERSSONTE SONO SNAPS
UNR★3241%—EMERGED
14
TASHI BRACEFULWR SORET
★3—201%——
86
DONIVON THOMASTE SORET
UNR—141%——
19
DARYL BARNETT JR.WR SORET
★3—110%——
84
THOMAS ZSIROSWR SERET
★3—00%+24—
8
ZY'MARION LANGWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
15
JEDIYAH WILLOUGHBYWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
80
KAMREN FLOWERSWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
83
OMAR MIMS JR.WR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
90
MAXIMUS HOWARDTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
28
DESHAUN WILLIAMSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL49TAL49PERF49RET71n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL67TAL51PERF67RET72n=9 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸LB61TAL53PERF62RET73n=6 · 11 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸DB51TAL47PERF51RET75n=10 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
OMAR MIMS JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KAMREN FLOWERSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
NOAH SANDERSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
SHAWN SIMEONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
RYDER TREADWAYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JOHN BAKER IVHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
TYRELL RUSSELLHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DJ KELLYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CADE WILHELMIHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JORDIN FARROWHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TRAYVON RUDOLPHNORTHERN ILLINOISWR★3★3
JACOB PETERSENHOLY CROSSTEUNR★3
BRAEDYN MOOREWISCONSINS★4★3
KENJI CHRISTIANNORTH CAROLINA A&TRB★3★3
CHIP TRAYANUMKENTUCKYRB★4★3
LANGSTON LONGSOUTH FLORIDALB★3★3
ANDREW WILSON-LAMPEAST CAROLINACB★3★3
RICKEY WILLIAMSWEST VIRGINIALB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT25 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JADARRIUS PERKINSDELAWARE STATECB★3★3
DON MUNNERLYNUTSALB★3★3
LARRY STEPHENS IIIINDIANA STATEWR★3UNR
ROD ORR JR.UABOL★4★4
JAVION BOSTICTHOMAS MOREWRUNRUNR
DARIUS ALEXANDERNFL DRAFT R3DT★3—
MAXEN HOOKELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
JACKSON BARROWELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
DANIEL BOLDENELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
DESHAWN HOLTELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES31%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS47%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#73NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8474COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2017 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST76% BACK76th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG76% BACK76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR71%71th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR83%83th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST75%75th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE