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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
SUN BELT|JON SUMRALL|—RECORD12-2|CONF—
TROY#19 AP 63 FPISBC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
35FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
16%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1300 BC / 9
BC RATIO
5%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+8.6
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE35
PERFORMANCE35
TALENT39
CONTINUITY16
DEFENSE79
PERFORMANCE79
TALENT45
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
48MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3AOLE MISS—L 10-28849090-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HALABAMA A&M—W 38-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 17AAPP STATE—L 28-32335050+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HMARSHALL—W 16-7315555+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1AWESTERN KENTUCKY—W 34-27425050+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HSOUTHERN MISS—W 27-10393939+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15HTEXAS STATE—W 17-14362323+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20ASOUTH ALABAMA—W 10-6377575-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5ALOUISIANA—W 23-17345252+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HARMY—W 10-914444+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HUL MONROE—W 34-16141111+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26AARKANSAS STATE—W 48-19371919+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 3HCOASTAL CAROLINA—W 45-26304848+19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 16HUTSA—W 18-12466464+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB30TAL40PERF30RET83ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
GUNNAR WATSONQB SERET
★3—8483%+21—
9
JARRET DOEGEQB SENO SNAPS
UNR★35317%+22EMERGED
8
PETER COSTELLIQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
12
QUAYDE HAWKINSQB SERET
★3—00%——
19
WILL CARNQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
10
TUCKER KILCREASEQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
17
JAMESON HOLCOMBQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB55TAL42PERF55RET98ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
KIMANI VIDALRB JURET
★3—9862%-8—
20
DK BILLINGSLEYRB SERET
★2—8431%+17—
1
JAMONTEZ WOODSRB SORET
★3★3445%+10HELD
12
DAMIEN TAYLORRB SERET
★3★3252%—HELD
4
JARRIS WILLIAMSRB SERET
★3—50%——
26
DEWHITT BETTERSON JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
25
CHARLES STRONGRB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
22
TAE MEADOWSRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE49TAL48PERF51RET59ONE OWNERn=9 · 7 METRICS · 51 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
89
CLAYTON OLLENDIECKTE SERET
UNR—9247%+19—
11
DESHON STOUDEMIREWR SERET
★3—8327%+14—
15
TEZ JOHNSONWR SERET
★3★38125%+37HELD
2
DEYUNKREA LEWISTE JURET
★3★37122%+48HELD
7
DEVONTE ROSSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—6715%-38—
4
MARCUS ROGERSWR SERET
★2—6413%+4—
88
MICHAEL VICETE JUNO SNAPS
★2—6215%-25—
1
JABRE BARBERWR SERET
★2★36211%+38ROSE
84
AJ LEWISTE JURET
UNR—6115%-13—
2
PEYTON HIGGINSWR SERET
★3—505%——
8
DEMONTREZ BROWNWR JURET
★3—443%+29—
87
JADEN WARRENWR SORET
★3—131%——
82
MARKUS FERRELLWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—100%——
49
JACKSON BLALOCKTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
RAJAE' JOHNSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%+33—
43
RUSSELL WEEKSTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
29
JAIDYN WILSONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
KADEN CUPPWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
81
ROBERT BRUCEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
18
DJ EPPSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
85
FABIAN ROGOSCHTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
JACKSON THOMASWR SONO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▸OL42TAL35PERF42RET0n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL65TAL42PERF66RET96n=10 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
▸LB48TAL36PERF49RET91n=5 · 10 METRICS · 28 OBS
▸DB73TAL52PERF73RET96n=9 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS9 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TAE MEADOWSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
NASIR POGUEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TUCKER KILCREASEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
BLAKE MATTHEWSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MATTHEW JOHNSONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
KYLER GIBSONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
LUKE HODGEHS RECRUITLB★2UNR
FABIAN ROGOSCHHS RECRUITEDGEUNRUNR
DJ EPPSHS RECRUITWRUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT15 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TAYLOR POWELLEASTERN MICHIGANQB★3★3
B.J. SMITHELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
CAMERON KAYEELIGIBILITY UPLSUNR—
REGGIE TODDELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
KYLE NIXONELIGIBILITY UPS★2—
JOHN HINES JR.ELIGIBILITY UPDEUNR—
ELGIN GRIFFINELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
DEVAN BARRETTELIGIBILITY UPDB★4—
CHEROKEE GLASGOWELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
KYRAN GRIFFIN-ISOMNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#130NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 9 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8189COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST64% BACK64th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG64% BACK64th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR83%83th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST96%96th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE