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HOME›TEAMS›TULANE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|WILLIE FRITZ|—RECORD11-3|CONF—
TULANE51 FPIAAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
41FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
75%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#710 BC / 20
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+7.9
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE36
PERFORMANCE36
TALENT63
CONTINUITY79
DEFENSE65
PERFORMANCE65
TALENT54
CONTINUITY75
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
44MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 37-17426464-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HOLE MISS—L 20-37849292-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16ASOUTHERN MISS—W 21-3231313+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HNICHOLLS—W 36-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 30HUAB—W 35-23291212+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13AMEMPHIS—W 31-21545959-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HNORTH TEXAS—W 35-28303636+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28ARICE—W 30-28282323+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AEAST CAROLINA—W 13-10451717+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HTULSA—W 24-22401515+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 24-8492525+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24HUTSA—W 29-16476464-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2HSMU#22L 14-26768383-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27HVIRGINIA TECH—L 20-41586666-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB60TAL47PERF60RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
MICHAEL PRATTQB JURET
★3—8278%+20—
15
KAI HORTONQB SERET
★3★35922%-17HELD
13
JUSTIN IBIETAQB SORET
★3—40%+35—
9
CARSON HAGGARDQB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
10
DARIAN MENSAHQB JUNO SNAPS
★2★400%—ROSE
14
JACK RISNERQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
22
ALEX WIGGINTONQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB68TAL81PERF68RET2ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
MAKHI HUGHESRB SERET
★3★39862%+11HELD
SHEDRO LOUISRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—6112%-3—
3
ARNOLD BARNES IIIRB SENO SNAPS
★3★3465%+26—
23
IVERSON CELESTINERB SERET
★3★3141%-33HELD
40
GEORGE ARATARB SORET
UNR—60%——
44
CHARLES SCHIBLERRB SORET
UNR—00%——
46
TATE JERNIGANRB SERET
UNR—00%——
2
SHAADIE CLAYTON-JOHNSONRB SERET
★4—00%-17—
6
TREY CORNISTRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE48TAL66PERF52RET81ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
87
ALEX BAUMANTE SERET
★3★39851%-18HELD
17
CHRIS BRAZZELL IIWR JURET
★3★48934%+30ROSE
11
CHRIS CARTERTE JUPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
★3★38428%-21HELD
6
LAWRENCE KEYS IIIWR SERET
★4—7723%+30—
9
REGGIE BROWNTE SERET
★3—7320%-43—
4
JHA'QUAN JACKSONWR SERET
★3—7320%+29—
83
BRYCE BOHANONWR SERET
★3—6313%+10—
1
DONTAE FLEMINGWR SEPORTAL · LOUISIANA
★3★3568%-29HELD
82
LUKE BESHWR SERET
UNR—241%——
88
BLAKE GUNTERTE SORET
★3—191%——
1
JALEN ROGERSWR JURET
★3★3151%—HELD
39
TREVOR EVANSWR JURET
UNR—130%——
86
ANDREW WILKSTE SORET
UNR—50%——
16
GARRETT MMAHATWR SERET
UNR—00%——
5
YULKEITH BROWNWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★4★400%-56HELD
3
PHAT WATTSWR SERET
UNR—00%-42—
82
REED RUTKOWSKIWR SORET
UNR—00%——
12
LUCAS DESJARDINSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
41
MICHAEL LAVERGNEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
48
JONATHAN KAHNTE SERET
UNR—00%——
18
JOSHUA GOINESTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
3
HUNTER SUMMERSWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
38
YASH GUPTAWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL58PERF55RET80n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL64TAL63PERF64RET94n=9 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸LB51TAL31PERF51RET41n=4 · 11 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸DB56TAL54PERF56RET69n=7 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MATTHEW FOBBS-WHITEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JAI EUGENE JR.HS RECRUITS★3UNR
AJ THOMASHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ARNOLD BARNES IIIHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MAKAI WILLIAMSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAHIEM JOHNSONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TREY CORNISTHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JEAN CLAUDE JOSEPHHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
KEVIN ADAMSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DARION REEDHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KAMERON PEDESCLEAUXLOUISIANACBUNR★3
A.J. HAMPTONNORTHWESTERNCBUNR★3
YULKEITH BROWNTEXAS A&MWR★4★4
CAMERON WIRELSUOT★3★3
DONTAE FLEMINGLOUISIANAWR★3★3
TYLER GRUBBSLOUISIANA TECHLB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JADON CANADYOLE MISSDB★3★3
CARLOS HATCHERCOASTAL CAROLINALB★3★3
HUTSON LILLIBRIDGEMISSOURI STATEOL★3★3
KEANON MCNALLYOLD DOMINIONOL★3★3
MACON CLARKELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
LARRY BROOKSELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
JOEY CLAYBROOKELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
DORIAN WILLIAMSELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
NICK ANDERSONELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
LUMMIE YOUNG IVELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES57%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS62%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#71NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8420COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
711 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
32TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
8
9
5
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-6 TO +5 W
IMPROVED11 OF 32
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST62% BACK62th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG62% BACK62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR80%80th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST69%69th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE