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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|TRE LAMB|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
TULSA120 FPIAAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
39FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
23%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
44%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1090 BC / 18
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-5.8
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE16
PERFORMANCE16
TALENT35
CONTINUITY23
DEFENSE33
PERFORMANCE33
TALENT41
CONTINUITY44
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
39MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HABILENE CHRISTIAN—W 35-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6ANEW MEXICO STATE—L 14-2161010+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HNAVY#23L 23-4216666-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 19AOKLAHOMA STATE—W 19-12651111+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HTULANE#18L 14-31516767-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AMEMPHIS—L 7-45587272-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 16AEAST CAROLINA—L 27-41447373-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HTEMPLE—L 37-38183636-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AFLORIDA ATLANTIC—L 21-40412828-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HOREGON STATE—W 31-145777+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AARMY—W 26-2514646-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HUAB—L 24-312688+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB34TAL11PERF34RET20ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
BAYLOR HAYESQB SOPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE
UNR★38580%-16EMERGED
18
KIRK FRANCISQB SERET
UNR★36320%-24EMERGED
9
STEPHEN KITTLEMANQB SERET
UNR—101%——
16
ANDREW ALFORDQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB42TAL37PERF42RET15ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
DOMINIC RICHARDSONRB SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
★3★39759%-11HELD
3
AJAY ALLENRB SEPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
★3★47825%+23ROSE
1
BRAYLIN PRESLEYRB SERET
★4★36615%+27FELL
22
KELVIN WASHINGTONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—181%——
28
SEVION MORRISONRB SEPORTAL · KANSAS
★4★300%+22FELL
20
JAYCE MORGANRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE50TAL59PERF39RET37ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
80
BRODY FOLEYTE SEPORTAL · INDIANA
★3★49359%+47ROSE
25
ZION STEPTOEWR SERET
★3★38823%+1HELD
4
ZION BOOKERWR SEPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA
UNR★38119%+11EMERGED
19
GRAYSON TEMPESTWR SERET
UNR—7515%-38—
3
MICAH TEASEWR JUPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★4★37213%+27FELL
23
LANDEN LUCASTE SEPORTAL · ROBERT MORRIS
UNR★37127%-23EMERGED
6
MEKHI MILLERWR SEPORTAL · MISSOURI
★3★3659%-3HELD
15
JOSH SMITHWR SORET
★3—638%+22—
0
DONNELL GEE JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3—617%-4—
84
JEWLYEN ROBERTSTE SORET
★3—5914%——
6
JACOB EMMERSWR SORET
★3★3504%+11HELD
5
CALVIN JOHNSON IIWR SEPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN
★3★3422%-30HELD
13
JEREMIAH BALLARDWR JURET
★3★360%+19HELD
82
CHRIS GACAYAN IITE JUPORTAL · MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR
UNR★300%—EMERGED
25
ELI POTTSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
86
LUKE TEVISTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
4
ALEX GREENWR FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
85
COLE GREENEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
24
DALLEN PONDERWR FRPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
★3★300%—HELD
87
JACKSON SHOCKLEYTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
12
SHANE WALKERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL48TAL26PERF48RET14n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL47TAL31PERF47RET26n=8 · 7 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸LB36TAL52PERF36RET37n=9 · 11 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸DB37TAL46PERF37RET64n=8 · 6 METRICS · 37 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS10 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAVION ANTAIHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ANDREW ALFORDHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
KELVIN WASHINGTONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
IAN MAYESHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
LUKE TEVISHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
EVAN ODOMHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
DECARI PRATERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HUDSON BALLHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
TRISTAN LAWYERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DONNELL GEE JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN15 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MICAH TEASETEXAS A&MWR★4★3
JOSH ANGLINNORTH ALABAMALB★3★3
BRODY FOLEYINDIANATE★3★3
MEKHI MILLERMISSOURIWR★3★3
AJAY ALLENFLORIDA INTERNATIONALRB★3★3
ZION BOOKERWESTERN CAROLINAWRUNR★3
JOAH CASHCOASTAL CAROLINAEDGE★3★3
SIMON WILSONMIDDLE TENNESSEEIOLUNR★3
CAM EASTOLE MISSOT★3★3
BYRON TURNER JR.FLORIDA STATEEDGE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT42 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
WALTER YOUNG BEARWEST VIRGINIAOLUNR★3
KASEN CARPENTEROKLAHOMA STATEOL★3★3
DAYNE HODGEYOUNGSTOWN STATEDBUNRUNR
RJ JACKSON JR.UCFDTUNRUNR
OWEN OSTROSKINORTHERN IOWADL★3★3
JACK TANNERKANSASOL★3★3
VONTROY MALONEIOWA STATEDLUNR★3
LUKE MCGARYHOUSTONTEUNR★3
JOSEPH WILLIAMSCOLORADOWR★3★3
BILL JACKSONNORTHERN IOWARB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES90%12 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS81%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#109NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8334COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3134 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST91% BACK91th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG91% BACK91th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR14%14th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR20%20th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST64%64th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE