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● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|TRENT DILFER|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
UAB118 FPIAAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
40FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
52%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
52%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-2IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#981 BC / 19
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.1-7.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-8.1
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE39
PERFORMANCE39
TALENT37
CONTINUITY52
DEFENSE28
PERFORMANCE28
TALENT53
CONTINUITY52
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
45MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HALCORN STATE—W 41-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AUL MONROE—L 6-32699+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AARKANSAS—L 27-37828383-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HNAVY—L 18-4115858-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HTULANE—L 20-71556868-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AARMY#21L 10-4417373-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ASOUTH FLORIDA—L 25-35504141-21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HTULSA—W 59-213355+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HUCONN—L 23-31275050-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AMEMPHIS#24L 18-53487777-57BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HRICE—W 40-14281919+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30ACHARLOTTE—L 27-29531212+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB41TAL60PERF41RET31ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
JALEN KITNAQB SENO SNAPS
★3—8369%+11—
9
JACOB ZENOQB SERET
★4★36829%+35FELL
18
LANDRY LYDDYQB SERET
★3★3141%+17HELD
12
HARRISON BARKERQB JURET
UNR—91%——
9
TRACE CAMPBELLQB JURET
★3—00%——
16
NATE ROGERSQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
11
ADRIAN POSSEQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
15
CARTER PUTTQB SERET
UNR—00%——
10
CAM JENNINGSQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB65TAL45PERF65RET91ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
29
LEE BEEBE JR.RB SERET
UNR★39663%+16EMERGED
5
LEE WITHERSPOONRB SERET
★3★36515%-21HELD
3
ISAIAH JACOBSRB SERET
★3—6213%-26—
28
SOLOMON BEEBERB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★3435%-56EMERGED
7
ARMONI GOODWINRB SEPORTAL · LSU
★4★4354%+14HELD
20
DYLAN PETERSONRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
30
AMARI BRUNDIDGERB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE57TAL47PERF57RET79ROTATIONn=8 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
AMARE THOMASWR SERET
★3★39327%+19HELD
5
KAM SHANKSWR JURET
UNR★38925%+24EMERGED
48
BRYCE DAMOUSTE SERET
UNR—8436%+1—
13
MALACHI HOLT-BENNETTWR SERET
★3★37616%+27HELD
0
DALLAS PAYNETE SERET
UNR★37526%+21EMERGED
10
TERRELL MCDONALDTE SERET
★2—7424%+42—
2
IVERSON HOOKSWR SERET
★3★37113%-11HELD
0
CORRI MILLINERWR SERET
UNR★37012%+35EMERGED
84
JACK NICKELTE SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★3★3539%—HELD
6
BRANDON HAWKINS JR.WR SERET
UNR—443%——
88
J.C. SIVLEYTE SORET
★3★3435%—HELD
18
XAVIER DAISYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3412%—HELD
5
BRANDON BUCKHAULTERWR SERET
★3★3311%—HELD
22
RYAN PEPPINSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—70%——
80
DYLAN WROBLEWSKIWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
2
YUSUF TERRYWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%+22HELD
87
CONNOR HARBYWR SERET
UNR—00%——
81
ARON MARSCHWR JURET
UNR—00%——
44
JOSHUA RUBINTE SORET
UNR—00%——
84
LAMAR WHITEWR SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
85
SKYLAR TOWNSENDWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
40
BRAYDEN JOHNSONTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
5
JOSH JACKSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▸OL62TAL23PERF62RET39n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL26TAL52PERF26RET70n=9 · 7 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸LB44TAL50PERF44RET71n=6 · 11 METRICS · 33 OBS
▸DB51TAL56PERF51RET29n=11 · 6 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
OMAR WHITEHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
JOSH JACKSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BARRY WALKERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ADRIAN POSSEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
J'QUAN MASONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
TYDERICK BROWNHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KADE MARTINHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
KELVIN HILLHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JADEN LIGONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
XAVIER DAISYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TROY JAKUBECYOUNGSTOWN STATECBUNR★3
SIRAD BRYANTGEORGIA TECHS★3★3
ADRIAN MADDOXALABAMA STATECBUNR★3
ARMONI GOODWINLSURB★4★3
LEDARRIUS COXINDIANADLUNR★3
DJ JONESMURRAY STATEOTUNR★3
OCTAVIUS BROTHERSPURDUELBUNR★3
TARIQ WATSONMINNESOTACB★3★3
JONDARIUS MORGANSOUTH CAROLINAOT★3★3
BARON FRANKS IINORFOLK STATEIOLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MAC MCWILLIAMSUCFDB★3★3
BJ MAYESTEXAS A&MDB★3★3
JACKSON BRATTONNORTH ALABAMALB★4★4
IKE ROWELLNORTH ALABAMASUNRUNR
FRED FARRIER IIKENTUCKYWR★3★3
SAMARIO RUDOLPHJACKSONVILLE STATEWR★2UNR
TYLER THOMASSOUTH ALABAMADE★3★3
REISE COLLIEROHIOLB★3★3
TAVEN CURRYUL MONROERB★3★3
TEJHAUN PALMERNFL DRAFT R6WRUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES41%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS48%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#98NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8402COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1921 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST71% BACK71th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG71% BACK71th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR39%39th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR31%31th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST29%29th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE