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● LIVE|2022 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›UCF›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
BIG 12|GUS MALZAHN|—RECORD9-5|CONF—
UCF37 FPIB12 · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
62FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
7%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#531 BC / 17
BC RATIO
17%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
9-4ACTUALvs9.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+11.2
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE78
PERFORMANCE78
TALENT70
CONTINUITY7
DEFENSE57
PERFORMANCE57
TALENT55
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
50MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1HSOUTH CAROLINA STATE—W 56-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9HLOUISVILLE—L 14-20577171+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17AFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 40-14493131+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HGEORGIA TECH—W 27-10792222+51BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HSMU—W 41-19555858+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13HTEMPLE—W 70-13452020+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22AEAST CAROLINA—L 13-34424848+25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29HCINCINNATI—W 25-21658282-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5AMEMPHIS—W 35-28476363+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12ATULANE#9W 38-31477979-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HNAVY—L 14-1702929+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26ASOUTH FLORIDA—W 46-395199+64BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 3ATULANE#9L 28-45477979-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28ADUKE—L 13-30555858+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB58TAL78PERF58RET18ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
JOHN RHYS PLUMLEEQB SENO SNAPS
★4—8679%-4—
12
MIKEY KEENEQB SERET
★3★35618%+28HELD
4
TOMMY CASTELLANOSQB SENO SNAPS
★3★3294%——
17
BROCK HANSELQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
11
WILL BOHNQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB52TAL55PERF52RET69ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
ISAIAH BOWSERRB SERET
★3★39451%-2HELD
7
RJ HARVEYRB SERET
★3—8129%+39—
0
JOHNNY RICHARDSONRB SERET
★3—6817%+37—
5
JORDAN MCDONALDRB SENO SNAPS
★3★3252%+35HELD
33
TRILION COLESRB SERET
★3—131%+14—
6
MARK-ANTONY RICHARDSRB SERET
★4★490%+25HELD
23
DEMARKCUS BOWMANRB JUNO SNAPS
★5★500%—HELD
8
ANTHONY WILLIAMS JR.RB SERET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE63TAL89PERF63RET45ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
82
ALEC HOLLERTE SERET
UNR—9756%+6—
1
JAVON BAKERWR SENO SNAPS
★4—9631%+14—
4
RYAN O'KEEFEWR SERET
★3★39127%+23HELD
2
KOBE HUDSONWR SENO SNAPS
★4—8623%+25—
85
ZACH MARSH WOJANTE SERET
UNR—8130%——
3
XAVIER TOWNSENDWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3629%-26HELD
12
JAYLON GRIFFINWR SERET
UNR★3556%-53EMERGED
8
KEMORE GAMBLETE SENO SNAPS
★4—5411%-6—
16
STEPHEN MARTINWR JURET
UNR—525%-33—
49
MAX HOLLERTE JURET
UNR—292%——
83
GARRETT FRENCHTE JURET
UNR—141%——
86
JORDAN DAVISTE SERET
★3—70%——
15
JORDAN JOHNSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3★570%—ROSE
87
DWARTNEY WORTHAMWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—70%——
17
AMARI JOHNSONWR SERET
★3★300%-57HELD
84
THOMAS WADSWORTHTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
19
JARRAD BAKERWR SERET
★3—00%——
84
JOEY GATEWOODTE SERET
★4★300%—FELL
38
DIONTE MARKSWR SERET
★3—00%——
31
JAJUAN FORTE'WR SERET
UNR—00%——
21
QUAN LEEWR JUNO SNAPS
★2★400%—ROSE
88
GRANT STEVENSTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
0
TYLER GRIFFINWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
24
ANDREW DICKSONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
CULLEN SMITHWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL68TAL60PERF68RET0n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL49TAL53PERF49RET81n=9 · 8 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸LB50TAL65PERF50RET41n=7 · 11 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸DB55TAL54PERF55RET74n=11 · 8 METRICS · 62 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NIKAI MARTINEZHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
QUAN LEEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JA'CARI HENDERSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KEAHNIST THOMPSONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TOMMY CASTELLANOSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
XAVIER TOWNSENDHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JORDAN MCDONALDHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DEMARI HENDERSONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TYLER GRIFFINHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JAMAAL JOHNSONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT27 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TATUM BETHUNEFLORIDA STATELB★3UNR
DILLON GABRIELOKLAHOMAQB★3★4
PARKER NAVARROOHIOQB★3★3
KAEDIN ROBINSONAPP STATEWRUNR★3
JAYLON ROBINSONOLE MISSWR★4★3
CAM GOODEMICHIGANDL★3UNR
JERMAINE MCMILLIANMASSACHUSETTSDB★3UNR
DAMARIUS GOODTEXAS STATERB★3UNR
ERIQ GILYARDKANSASLB★3★3
TITUS MOKIAO-ATIMALALAUCLAWR★4UNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#53NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8676COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST80% BACK80th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG80% BACK80th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR18%18th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST74%74th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE