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● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|BARRY ODOM|—RECORD11-3|CONF—
UNLV#23 AP 42 FPIMWC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
39FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
67%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#760 BC / 23
BC RATIO
5%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
10-3ACTUALvs10.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+14.3
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE50
PERFORMANCE50
TALENT48
CONTINUITY79
DEFENSE62
PERFORMANCE62
TALENT43
CONTINUITY67
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
41MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31AHOUSTON—W 27-7532424+50BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HUTAH TECH—W 72-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13AKANSAS—W 23-20656262+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HFRESNO STATE—W 59-14363737+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HSYRACUSE#20L 41-44666666+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AUTAH STATE—W 50-34292121+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AOREGON STATE—W 33-25472828+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HBOISE STATE#8L 24-29457979-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9AHAWAI'I—W 29-27222020+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HSAN DIEGO STATE—W 41-20451111+63BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ASAN JOSÉ STATE—W 27-16163232+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HNEVADA—W 38-14231313+61BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 6ABOISE STATE#8L 7-21457979-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 18HCALIFORNIA—W 24-13665959+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB66TAL78PERF66RET2ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
HAJJ-MALIK WILLIAMSQB SEPORTAL · CAMPBELL
★3★38184%+16HELD
9
MATTHEW SLUKAQB SEPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
UNR★35214%-29EMERGED
7
CAMERON FRIELQB SERET
★3—162%+19—
14
GAEL OCHOAQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
18
LUCAS LENHOFFQB FRRET
★2★200%—HELD
▾RB71TAL59PERF71RET50ONE OWNERn=4 · 5 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
JAI'DEN THOMASRB SERET
UNR—9050%+15—
20
KYLIN JAMESRB SEPORTAL · CENTRAL ARKANSAS
UNR★37122%+33EMERGED
9
GREG BURRELLRB SONO SNAPS
★3★36617%+16HELD
23
DEVIN GREENRB SONO SNAPS
★3★3487%-37HELD
21
MICHAEL ALLENRB SENO SNAPS
★4★4364%-6HELD
38
SAMMY NORRISFB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
24
DARRIEN JONESRB JURET
★3—00%——
25
ROGERICK RAYRB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE37TAL48PERF49RET69ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
19
KALEO BALLUNGAYTE SERET
★3—9761%+50—
11
RICKY WHITE IIIWR SERET
★3—9334%+34—
21
JACOB DE JESUSWR SERET
UNR★38023%+27EMERGED
44
CHRISTIAN MOORETE SEPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
★3★37830%+22HELD
6
JADEN BRADLEYWR SEPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
★3★36713%+19HELD
3
COREY THOMPSON JR.WR JURET
UNR★36612%-58EMERGED
2
CASEY CAINWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS
★3★36511%+36HELD
4
DEANGELO IRVIN JR.WR SERET
UNR—556%-36—
43
JAE BEASLEY IITE JUNO SNAPS
★3—487%——
87
CHRISTIAN EARLSTE SERET
UNR★3242%—EMERGED
9
DAMIEN MCDANIELWR FRTRUE FR
★3★3201%—HELD
8
TIM CONERLYWR SERET
UNR—130%——
6
KAYDEN MCGEEWR SONO SNAPS
★3—110%——
83
COOPER HASWELLTE JURET
UNR—40%——
82
RASHAWN JACKSONWR SORET
UNR—00%——
15
LANDON ROGERSWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
89
MALIK BRADFORDWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
86
DAVIS AMBUEHLTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
TRAIVON DYSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
86
DAVID TITONE-PEREZWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
52
JACOB BEZATE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
ISAIAH HARRISWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL50TAL39PERF50RET94n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL57TAL48PERF57RET76n=9 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB74TAL34PERF74RET69n=5 · 10 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸DB67TAL44PERF67RET58n=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MELVIN LASTERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DEVIN GREENHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KOI PA'AO'AOHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DAMIEN MCDANIELHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KAYDEN MCGEEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
NIJRELL EASON IIHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TRE FULTONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TOBY MOOREHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
GAEL OCHOAHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
MAX MOGELSONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MATTHEW SLUKAHOLY CROSSQBUNR★3
JALEN CATALONTEXASSUNR★3
HAJJ-MALIK WILLIAMSCAMPBELLQB★3★3
CASEY CAINTEXASWR★3★3
KYLIN JAMESCENTRAL ARKANSASRBUNR★3
TONY GRIMESTEXAS A&MCB★5★3
ANTONIO DOYLE JR.JACKSON STATEEDGE★4★3
JADEN NAVARRETTEOREGONEDGE★4★3
MANI POWELLARKANSASLB★3★3
LADARRIUS BISHOPARKANSASCB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALANI MAKIHELEUCLAOL★3★3
JAYDEN MAIAVAUSCQB★3★4
SENIKA MCKIECOASTAL CAROLINAWRUNR★3
THOMAS ANDERSONMISSOURI STATECBUNRUNR
COURTNEY REESEBETHUNE-COOKMANRB★2★2
NAKI FAHINANEW MEXICO STATEDT★3★3
ZYELL GRIFFINEASTERN MICHIGANWR★3★3
MARCUS MILLERMIDDLE TENNESSEEOL★3★3
DAVONE WALDEN JR.CENTRAL CONNECTICUTDB★2UNR
AMANI TRIGG-WRIGHTELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES77%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS24%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#76NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8351COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1919 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS
+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST30% BACK30th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG30% BACK30th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR94%94th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR2%2th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST58%58th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE