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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|JEFF TRAYLOR|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
UTSA57 FPIAAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
47FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
84%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#590 BC / 14
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+7.0
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE41
PERFORMANCE41
TALENT33
CONTINUITY78
DEFENSE59
PERFORMANCE59
TALENT52
CONTINUITY84
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
34MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2AHOUSTON—L 14-17652929+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HTEXAS STATE—W 20-13324747+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15HARMY—L 29-3714141+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ATENNESSEE#17L 14-45899090-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7ATEMPLE—W 49-344255+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HUAB—W 41-20291212+52BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 36-10492525+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HEAST CAROLINA—W 41-27451717+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ANORTH TEXAS—W 37-29303636+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HRICE—W 34-14282323+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17HSOUTH FLORIDA—W 49-21533636+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24ATULANE—L 16-29415656+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 19AMARSHALL—W 35-17312626+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB69TAL42PERF69RET86ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
FRANK HARRISQB SERET
★3—8776%+32—
2
OWEN MCCOWNQB SEPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★35414%+17HELD
9
EDDIE LEE MARBURGERQB JURET
★3★34710%-22HELD
2
JACKSON GILKEYQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
17
BRANDON TENNISONQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB54TAL30PERF54RET42ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
KEVORIAN BARNESRB SERET
★3★38939%+15HELD
20
ROBERT HENRY JR.RB SENO SNAPS
UNR—8433%-6—
24
ROCKO GRIFFINRB JUPORTAL · VANDERBILT
★3★37424%-20HELD
17
KAEDRIC COBBSRB JURET
★3★3282%-13HELD
10
BRANDON HIGH JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3191%—HELD
21
JUSTIN RODRIGUEZRB SERET
UNR—00%-46—
42
MASON CULTONRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE56TAL35PERF61RET79ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 44 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
JOSHUA CEPHUSWR SERET
★2—9935%+27—
84
OSCAR CARDENASTE SERET
★3—9452%+24—
11
TYKEE OGLE-KELLOGGWR SERET
★3—9126%+20—
87
HOUSTON THOMASTE SERET
★3★38537%-33HELD
3
DEVIN MCCUINWR SENO SNAPS
★3★37918%+28HELD
19
WILLIE MCCOY IIIWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—629%-12—
0
DAVID AMADOR IIWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—587%-27—
5
DAN DISHMANTE SERET
★3—549%+4—
5
CHRIS CARPENTERWR SERET
★3—473%-31—
9
PATRICK OVERMYERTE SENO SNAPS
★3★3262%—HELD
10
JACE WILSONWR SERET
★3★3240%—HELD
11
JAREN RANDLEWR SERET
UNR—221%——
81
DEVIN SCURATE SONO SNAPS
★3★200%—FELL
1
DE'CORIAN CLARKWR SERET
★3—00%+31—
29
KYLE EAVESWR JURET
UNR—00%——
13
JAMEL HARDY JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
23
GRAYSON MEDFORDWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
83
EZEKIEL SALDANAWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
CHU-CHU DOEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
JUSTICE HURTWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL46TAL26PERF46RET86n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL66TAL54PERF66RET96n=9 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB73TAL52PERF73RET92n=12 · 11 METRICS · 71 OBS
▸DB49TAL51PERF49RET70n=8 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRANDON HIGH JR.HS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DEVIN MCCUINHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
COREY LUCIUSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAMEIAN BUXTONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAMEL HARDY JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAKEVIAN RODGERSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
VIC SHAWHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAMES WALLEY JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JACKSON GILKEYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DAVIN MARTINHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACKSON ANDERSONCOLORADOIOL★3★3
SYRUS DUMASNEW MEXICO STATECBUNR★3
BRYCE GRAYSWASHINGTON STATES★3★3
OWEN MCCOWNCOLORADOQB★3★3
ROCKO GRIFFINVANDERBILTRB★3★3
DARON ALLMANANGELO STATELBUNR★2
ELLIOTT DAVISONINCARNATE WORDSUNR★2
KAMERYN ALEXANDERSAM HOUSTONCBUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZAKHARI FRANKLINOLE MISSWR★2★3
XAVIER PLAYERTEXAS SOUTHERNCB★3★3
CHACE DAVISBOWLING GREENDLUNR★3
TYE EDWARDSNORTHERN IOWARB★3★3
JACOREY HYDERLAMARTE★3★3
AHOFITU MAKAELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
KEVIN DAVISELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
COREY MAYFIELD JR.ELIGIBILITY UPCB★3—
CLIFFORD CHATTMANELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
TREVOR HARMANSONELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES43%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS35%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#59NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8466COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
813 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST73% BACK73th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG73% BACK73th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR86%86th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR86%86th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST70%70th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE