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● LIVE|2021 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
SEC|CLARK LEA|—RECORD2-10|CONF—
VANDERBILT121 FPISEC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
59FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-16IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#491 BC / 23
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs1.5-10.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-20.1
2 wins against a scoring profile describing 1.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
61MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4HEAST TENNESSEE STATE—L 3-23————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 11ACOLORADO STATE—W 24-21333333-27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 18HSTANFORD—L 23-41831919-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25HGEORGIA#1L 0-6299100100-94BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2HUCONN—W 30-281511+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9AFLORIDA—L 0-42947878-72BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 16ASOUTH CAROLINA—L 20-21855050-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23HMISSISSIPPI STATE—L 6-45807474-68BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30HMISSOURI—L 28-37684747-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13HKENTUCKY#18L 17-34798383-77BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20AOLE MISS#11L 17-31818888-82BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27ATENNESSEE—L 21-45879393-87BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
KEN SEALSQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
11
MIKE WRIGHT JR.QB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
8
JEREMY MOUSSAQB SERET
★3—00%——
12
JACK BOWENQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET13NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
RAY DAVISRB SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
25
DYLAN BETTS-PAULEYRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
4
PATRICK SMITHRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
24
ROCKO GRIFFINRB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
3
JA'VEON MARLOWRB JURET
★3—00%——
25
MITCHELL PRYORRB JURET
UNR—00%——
PATRICK SMITHRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
86
BEN BRESNAHANTE SERET
★3—00%——
14
CAM JOHNSONWR SERET
★4★300%—FELL
14
WILL SHEPPARDWR SERET
★3★400%—ROSE
19
CHRIS PIERCEWR SERET
★3—00%——
11
AMIR ABDUR-RAHMANWR JURET
★3—00%——
18
LOGAN KYLETE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
10
GAVIN SCHOENWALDTE SERET
★3—00%——
11
TYRELL ALEXANDERWR SERET
★3—00%——
2
DEVIN BODDIE JR.WR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
84
JUSTIN BALLTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
18
JAMES BOSTICWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
JOEL DECOURSEYTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
89
DIEGO LAMONICATE FRRET
★3—00%——
3
QUINCY SKINNER JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
17
GAMARION CARTERWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
EZRA MCALLISTERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS23 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MARCUS BRADLEYHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
QUINCY SKINNER JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DEVIN LEEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JOHN HOWSE IVHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TERION SUGICKHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MICHAEL MINCEYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
XAVIER CASTILLOHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JACQUES HUNTERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CJ TAYLORHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JAMES ZIGLOR IIIHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN2 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RE'MAHN DAVISTEMPLERBUNR★3
JUNIOR UZEBUWEST VIRGINIAOT★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT16 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DK KAUFMANAUBURNS★3UNR
JAYDEN HARRISONMARSHALLWR★3★3
GRANT MILLERBAYLOROL★3★3
KEYON HENRY-BROOKSLOUISIANA TECHRB★3★3
DC WILLIAMSTEXAS STATEDBUNRUNR
FRANK COPPETMURRAY STATES★3★3
ELIJAH HAMILTONLOUISIANA TECHDB★3★3
KENNY HEBERTARIZONALB★2★2
DAYO ODEYINGBONFL DRAFT R2DL★3—
DIMITRI MOOREELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#49NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8512COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
521 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST93% BACK93th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG93% BACK93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE