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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
ACC|BRENT PRY|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
VIRGINIA TECH47 FPIACC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
58FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
65%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-12IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#392 BC / 29
BC RATIO
12%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+4.3
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE67
PERFORMANCE67
TALENT70
CONTINUITY65
DEFENSE51
PERFORMANCE51
TALENT65
CONTINUITY73
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
46MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HOLD DOMINION—W 36-17122323+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HPURDUE—L 17-24663232+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16ARUTGERS—L 16-35565959+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23AMARSHALL—L 17-24312626+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HPITTSBURGH—W 38-21723232+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7AFLORIDA STATE#6L 17-39869494-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HWAKE FOREST—W 30-13502828+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HSYRACUSE—W 38-10504040+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ALOUISVILLE#19L 3-34807575-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ABOSTON COLLEGE—W 48-22613838+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HNC STATE#21L 28-35737171-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AVIRGINIA—W 55-17532121+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27ATULANE—W 41-20415656+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB69TAL75PERF69RET18ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
KYRON DRONESQB SEPORTAL · BAYLOR
★4★38282%+2FELL
6
GRANT WELLSQB SERET
★3—5518%+7—
5
WILLIAM WATSON IIIQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
14
DYLAN WITTKEQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
19
BEN LOCKLEARQB JURET
UNR★200%—EMERGED
15
JACKSON SIGLERQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB72TAL73PERF72RET37ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
33
BHAYSHUL TUTENRB SEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA A&T
UNR★39661%-5EMERGED
24
MALACHI THOMASRB SERET
★3★38133%-22HELD
25
BRYCE DUKERB SERET
★3—303%+17—
4
JEREMIAH CONEYRB SONO SNAPS
★3★3252%-57HELD
28
CHANCE BLACKRB SORET
★3★3171%-54HELD
16
TRALON MITCHELLRB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
20
P.J. PRIOLEAURB SERET
UNR—00%——
41
KHIARI MILLERFB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE67TAL77PERF66RET39ROTATIONn=7 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
DA'QUAN FELTONWR SEPORTAL · NORFOLK STATE
UNR★38728%+25EMERGED
12
STEPHEN GOSNELLWR SERET
★3—8526%+31—
8
DAE'QUAN WRIGHTTE SERET
★3★48443%+38ROSE
82
BENJI GOSNELLTE SERET
★4—8341%-33—
83
JAYLIN LANEWR SEPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
★3★38325%+27HELD
0
AYDEN GREENEWR SENO SNAPS
★3—588%-55—
87
HARRISON SAINT GERMAINTE SERET
★3—5713%——
5
DA'WAIN LOFTONWR SERET
★3★3567%-6HELD
3
TUCKER HOLLOWAYWR SERET
★3★3433%-21HELD
0
ALI JENNINGSWR SEPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
★3★4301%+35ROSE
40
COLE PICKETTTE JURET
UNR—242%——
11
DEVIN ALVESWR SERET
★3★3200%—HELD
13
JA'RICOUS HAIRSTONTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—111%——
5
XAYVION TURNER-BRADSHAWWR SERET
★3★3100%—HELD
99
COLE REEMSNYDERTE SERET
UNR—80%——
2
TAKYE HEATHWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—60%——
17
CHANCE FITZGERALDWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
86
NICK GALLOTE SERET
★3—00%-19—
13
MARCELL BAYLORWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
88
ZEKE WIMBUSHTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
89
LATRELL SUTTONWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
17
LUKE SHIELDSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
81
JORDAN TAPSCOTTWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL57TAL64PERF57RET87n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL80TAL63PERF80RET73n=10 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
▸LB67TAL64PERF67RET88n=7 · 10 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸DB59TAL67PERF59RET73n=8 · 6 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LAYTH GHANNAMHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
CHANCE FITZGERALDHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
AYDEN GREENEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
AYCEN STEVENSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ANTONIO COTMAN JR.HS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JASON ABBEYHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
WILLIAM WATSON IIIHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
KRYSTIAN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DANTE LOVETTHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TRALON MITCHELLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALI JENNINGSOLD DOMINIONWR★3★4
DERRICK CANTEENGEORGIA SOUTHERNCB★2★4
DA'QUAN FELTONNORFOLK STATEWRUNR★3
BHAYSHUL TUTENNORTH CAROLINA A&TRBUNR★3
JAYLIN LANEMIDDLE TENNESSEEWR★3★3
KYRON DRONESBAYLORQB★4★3
STONE SNYDERVMILBUNR★3
CLAYTON FRADYGARDNER-WEBBOTUNR★3
ANTWAUN POWELLFLORIDAEDGEUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ARMANI CHATMANNORTH CAROLINADB★3★3
KESHAWN KINGWESTERN MICHIGANRB★4★4
DJ HARVEYSAN JOSÉ STATECB★4★3
JASON BROWNJACKSON STATEQBUNR★2
WILLIAM KAKAVITSASCHARLESTON SOUTHERNWRUNRUNR
JALEN HOYLESTONY BROOKDB★3★3
ELIJAH HOWARDCENTRAL CONNECTICUTRB★3★3
JOHNNY JORDANELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
SILAS DZANSIELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
CHAMARRI CONNERELIGIBILITY UPDB★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES59%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS56%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#39NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 29 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8639COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
921 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST69% BACK69th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG69% BACK69th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR87%87th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR18%18th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST73%73th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE