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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
ACC|BRENT PRY|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
VIRGINIA TECH71 FPIACC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
72FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
45%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
40%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#394 BC / 20
BC RATIO
21%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-8.8
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE76
PERFORMANCE76
TALENT71
CONTINUITY45
DEFENSE40
PERFORMANCE40
TALENT60
CONTINUITY40
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
71MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31ASOUTH CAROLINA—L 11-24886464-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HVANDERBILT#15L 20-44619393-70BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HOLD DOMINION—L 26-45126464-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HWOFFORD—W 38-6————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 27ANC STATE—W 23-21686060-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HWAKE FOREST—L 23-30476262-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AGEORGIA TECH—L 20-35727575-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 24HCALIFORNIA—W 42-34744141-18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HLOUISVILLE—L 16-28648282-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AFLORIDA STATE—L 14-34877070-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HMIAMI#2L 17-34909494-71BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AVIRGINIA#16L 7-27557878-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB53TAL85PERF53RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
KYRON DRONESQB SERET
★4★38798%-17FELL
5
WILLIAM WATSON IIIQB SERET
★3★3202%+36HELD
19
GARRET RANGELQB JUPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
★4★300%-45FELL
12
KELDEN RYANQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
18
A.J. BRANDQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB86TAL58PERF86RET16ONE OWNERn=3 · 5 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
27
MARCELLOUS HAWKINSRB SEPORTAL · CENTRAL MISSOURI STATE
UNR★38445%+28EMERGED
8
TERION STEWARTRB SEPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
★3★37125%+23HELD
20
P.J. PRIOLEAURB SERET
UNR—5510%-34—
16
JEFFREY OVERTON JR.RB FRTRUE FR
★4—5410%+38—
4
JEREMIAH CONEYRB SORET
★3★3394%-5HELD
28
BRAYDON BENNETTRB SEPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
★3★3384%+29HELD
23
TYLER MASONRB SORET
★3—212%-27—
46
DARIUS TAYLORRB JURET
★4—00%——
35
JOHN BUETOWRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE39TAL70PERF44RET66ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
AYDEN GREENEWR SERET
★3—9028%+17—
82
BENJI GOSNELLTE SERET
★4—8655%-19—
3
DONAVON GREENEWR SEPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
★4★37819%+21FELL
13
JA'RICOUS HAIRSTONTE JURET
UNR—7535%+50—
85
ISAIAH SPENCERWR SENO SNAPS
★3★37516%+1HELD
2
TAKYE HEATHWR JURET
★3—7315%-25—
0
CAMERON SELDONWR SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE
★4★36611%-26FELL
15
SHAMARIUS PETERKINWR SONO SNAPS
★4—555%-38—
11
DEVIN ALVESWR SERET
★3★3474%—HELD
88
ZEKE WIMBUSHTE JURET
★3★3426%—HELD
87
HARRISON SAINT GERMAINTE SERET
★3—374%-24—
3
TUCKER HOLLOWAYWR SERET
★3★3362%+20HELD
99
COLE REEMSNYDERTE SERET
UNR—00%——
36
BRODY JONESTE JURET
UNR—00%——
89
CHARLIE O'CONNORWR FRRET
★2—00%——
6
KEYLEN ADAMSWR SORET
★4—00%——
7
CHANZ WIGGINSWR SORET
★4—00%——
21
CAMERON SPARKSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
22
MICAH MATTHEWSWR FRTRUE FR
★4★300%—FELL
83
LUKE STUEWEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
80
L.J. BOOKERWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
85
ISRAEL HAIRSTONWR SORET
UNR—00%——
86
JOSEPH HOBBSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
28
DREW HUBEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL48TAL72PERF48RET37n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL52TAL55PERF52RET46n=10 · 7 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸LB46TAL65PERF46RET72n=7 · 11 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸DB72TAL62PERF72RET20n=8 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SHAMARIUS PETERKINHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JEFFREY OVERTON JR.HS RECRUITRB★4UNR
MICAH MATTHEWSHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
JAHMARI DELOATCHHS RECRUITS★4UNR
CHRISTIAN EVANSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CAM SPARKSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
SHELDON ROBINSONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
BRETT CLATTERBAUGHHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
A.J. BRANDHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JAYDEN ANDERSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CAMERON SELDONTENNESSEERB★4★3
KYLE ALTUNERWEST VIRGINIAIOL★3★3
ISAIAH SPENCERJACKSON STATEWRUNR★3
KODY HUISMANNORTH DAKOTA STATEDLUNR★3
TYSON FLOWERSRICES★3★3
TERION STEWARTBOWLING GREENRB★3★3
ARIAS NASHMERCERDLUNR★3
MICHAEL SHORTNORTH CAROLINALB★3★3
GAVIN CRAWFORDWEST VIRGINIAIOL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRAELIN MOORELSUOL★3★4
MANSOOR DELANELSUCB★3★4
MOSE PHILLIPS IIIMISSOURIS★3★3
XAVIER CHAPLINAUBURNOL★3★4
BOB SCHICKOKLAHOMA STATEOLUNR★3
SAM BRUMFIELDMEMPHISLBUNR★3
KELI LAWSONUCFLB★3★3
MALACHI THOMASPURDUERB★3★3
CJ MCCRAYCINCINNATIDLUNR★3
CALEB NITTAWESTERN KENTUCKYOLUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES59%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS70%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#39NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
4OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8741COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3031 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
28TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
4
12
4
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +3.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +5 W
IMPROVED12 OF 28
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST58% BACK58th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG58% BACK58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR37%37th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST20%20th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE