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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG TEN|JEDD FISCH|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
WASHINGTON21 FPIB1G · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
74FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
56%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
54%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-14IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#238 BC / 30
BC RATIO
20%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+14.3
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE89
PERFORMANCE89
TALENT79
CONTINUITY56
DEFENSE86
PERFORMANCE86
TALENT74
CONTINUITY54
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
56MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HCOLORADO STATE—W 38-213499+82BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HUC DAVIS—W 70-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20AWASHINGTON STATE—W 59-24315656+35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HOHIO STATE#5L 6-24999999-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AMARYLAND—W 24-20634545+46BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 10HRUTGERS—W 38-19624747+44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AMICHIGAN#21L 7-24938282+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HILLINOIS—W 42-25548383+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AWISCONSIN—L 10-13803838+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HPURDUE—W 49-13613434+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AUCLA—W 48-14822828+63BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HOREGON#4L 14-26979898-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 13HBOISE STATE—W 38-10425353+38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB75TAL98PERF75RET96ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
DEMOND WILLIAMS JR.QB JURET
★4★49496%+38HELD
15
KAI HORTONQB SEPORTAL · TULANE
★3★3344%-11HELD
14
SHEA KUYKENDALLQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
9
DASH BEIERLYQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
10
TRESTON MCMILLANQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB77TAL92PERF77RET98ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JONAH COLEMANRB SERET
★3★39555%+22HELD
24
ADAM MOHAMMEDRB JURET
★3★48537%+2ROSE
4
JORDAN WASHINGTONRB SORET
UNR★4476%+36EMERGED
32
RYKEN MOONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—181%——
21
QUAID CARRRB FRTRUE FR
★3—161%——
20
D'ARYHIAN CLEMONSRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
29
JULIAN MCMAHANRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
25
BECK WALKERRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE56TAL68PERF57RET57ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
86
DECKER DEGRAAFTE JURET
★3—9868%+47—
12
DENZEL BOSTONWR JURET
★3—9329%+25—
2
DEZMEN ROEBUCKWR SONO SNAPS
★3—9227%+8—
7
RAIDEN VINES-BRIGHTWR SONO SNAPS
★3★38321%-15HELD
88
QUENTIN MOORETE SERET
★3—7123%+1—
5
OMARI EVANSWR SEPORTAL · PENN STATE
★3★37012%+18HELD
2
AUDRIC HARRISWR JURET
★3★3524%-19HELD
8
CHRIS LAWSONWR SONO SNAPS
★4—494%——
44
KADE ELDRIDGETE JUPORTAL · USC
★3★3445%-43HELD
3
RASHID WILLIAMSWR JURET
★4—382%+12—
85
BARON NAONETE SONO SNAPS
★3—363%——
0
KEVIN GREEN JR.WR JURET
★3★4331%—ROSE
16
JUSTICE WILLIAMSWR SORET
★4—150%——
45
AUSTIN SIMMONSTE FRTRUE FR
★3—141%——
11
MARCUS HARRISWR FRTRUE FR
★4★300%——
87
RYAN OTTONTE JURET
★4—00%——
89
CHARLIE CROWELLTE SORET
★3—00%——
31
LUKE LUCHINIWR SORET
★2—00%——
35
JACE BURTONWR SORET
★2—00%——
83
LUKE GAYTONWR SORET
UNR—00%——
82
DEJI AJOSEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL54TAL77PERF54RET44n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL47TAL64PERF47RET67n=8 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸LB47TAL71PERF47RET32n=9 · 11 METRICS · 58 OBS
▸DB69TAL83PERF69RET43n=9 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZAYDRIUS RAINEY-SALEHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
DYLAN ROBINSONHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
RYLON DILLARD-ALLENHS RECRUITS★4UNR
CHAMP TAULEALEAHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
MARCUS HARRISHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
CHRIS LAWSONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
JONATHAN EPPERSON JR.HS RECRUITLB★4UNR
JOHN MILLSHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
RAIDEN VINES-BRIGHTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DASH BEIERLYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN3 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TACARIO DAVISARIZONACB★3★4
CARVER WILLISKANSAS STATEOT★3★3
ALEX MCLAUGHLINNORTHERN ARIZONAS★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT35 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
THADDEUS DIXONNORTH CAROLINADBUNR★4
GAARD MEMMELAARUCFOL★3★3
JORDAN SHAWTEXAS A&MCB★3★3
KHMORI HOUSENORTH CAROLINADB★3★4
KAHLEE TAFAIMINNESOTAOL★3★3
ELIJAH JACKSONTCUCB★3★3
JAYDEN WAYNECALIFORNIALB★4★3
LANCE HOLTZCLAWUTAHDE★3★3
CAM DAVISMINNESOTARB★4UNR
BRYUN PARHAMUCONNLB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES23%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS60%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#23NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
8OF 30 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8794COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1832 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST49% BACK49th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG49% BACK49th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR44%44th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR96%96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST43%43th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE