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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|JAY SAWVEL|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
WYOMING112 FPIMWC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
12FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
95%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1020 BC / 29
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-9.0
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE4
PERFORMANCE4
TALENT31
CONTINUITY68
DEFENSE29
PERFORMANCE29
TALENT35
CONTINUITY95
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
41MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31AARIZONA STATE#7L 7-48797474-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HIDAHO—L 13-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14HBYU#13L 14-34448888-74BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ANORTH TEXAS—L 17-44433434-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HAIR FORCE—W 31-1911717-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HSAN DIEGO STATE—L 24-27451111+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ASAN JOSÉ STATE—L 14-24163232-18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HUTAH STATE—L 25-27292121-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ANEW MEXICO—W 49-451514140BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ACOLORADO STATE—L 10-24303030-16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HBOISE STATE#8L 13-17457979-65BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AWASHINGTON STATE—W 15-14464949-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL45PERF60RET0ONE OWNERNOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
KADEN ANDERSONQB SORET
★3★365100%+23HELD
7
JAYDEN CLEMONSQB SERET
★3—00%-53—
7
DEYON BATISTEQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
15
GAGE BROOKQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB27TAL23PERF27RET81ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
SAM SCOTTRB SERET
★3—8236%-24—
6
JAMARI FERRELLRB SERET
★2★37728%-48ROSE
26
DJ JONESRB SEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
★3★36819%-28HELD
21
HARRISON WAYLEERB SERET
★3★36416%+12HELD
36
CALEB DRISKILLFB SERET
★2—181%——
5
DAWAIIAN MCNEELYRB SERET
★3★350%+22HELD
35
KIMBALL MADSENFB JURET
UNR—00%——
25
MITCHELL ANDERSONRB JURET
UNR—00%——
41
COOPER MAILANDFB JURET
UNR—00%——
21
NICO HAMILTONRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
27
DONTAE BURCHRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE40TAL31PERF42RET65ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
86
NICK MILESTE SERET
★3—9456%-42—
8
JAYLEN SARGENTWR SERET
★3—7820%+33—
13
JUSTIN STEVENSONWR SERET
★3★37619%0HELD
84
JOHN MICHAEL GYLLENBORGTE SERET
★3—7325%+49—
83
WILL PELISSIERWR SERET
UNR—7317%+14—
13
CHRIS DURR JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★3★37014%+28HELD
1
TK KINGWR SENO SNAPS
★3—6913%+6—
9
ALEX BROWNWR SERET
★3—619%+16—
80
JUSTIN ERBTE SERET
UNR—6014%——
2
DEVIN BODDIE JR.WR SERET
★3★3494%-18HELD
85
CLAY NANKEWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3392%—HELD
87
ISAAC SCHOENFELDTE SERET
★2—373%——
6
JAYLAN BEANWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—322%——
86
EVAN SVOBODATE SERET
UNR—191%——
89
JAKE WILSONTE SONO SNAPS
★3—111%——
33
TREY OLSENWR FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
23
TYLER NYSTROMWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
19
CALEB COOLEYWR SERET
UNR—00%——
19
CHARLIE COENENWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
BRICEN BRANTLEYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
14
KAYDEN LAFRAMBOISEWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
42
HUNTER KALLSTROMTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
44
TYLER HAMPTONTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL44TAL29PERF44RET77n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL43TAL35PERF43RET92n=7 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB56TAL46PERF56RET99n=4 · 11 METRICS · 28 OBS
▸DB45TAL29PERF45RET84n=8 · 6 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BLEYNE BRYANTHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
MARKIE GRANTHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ELTOUM MURGUSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DASH BAUMANHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DEYON BATISTEHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JAKE WILSONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
DREW JACKSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CHARLES WILLIAMSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JACK HARVEYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
GARRETT COMBSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN3 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVAN ELLERVMILBUNR★3
DJ JONESNORTH CAROLINARB★3★3
TYLER KINGTEXAS TECHWRUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT19 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KOLBEY TAYLORVANDERBILTCB★3★3
GAVIN MEYERUSCDT★3★3
FRANK CRUMELIGIBILITY UPOTUNR—
JAKOREY HAWKINSELIGIBILITY UPCB★3—
COLE GODBOUTELIGIBILITY UPNTUNR—
TREYTON WELCHELIGIBILITY UPTE★2—
ANDREW PEASLEYELIGIBILITY UPQB★2—
WYATT WIELANDELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
COLIN O'BRIENELIGIBILITY UPTEUNR—
RYAN MARQUEZELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES35%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS61%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#102NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 29 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8237COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
313 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST45% BACK45th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG45% BACK45th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR77%77th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST84%84th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE