SAT 14:30 ET|WARREN MCGUIRK ALUMNI STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
28
5-7
19
6
32
66%
69
18
32.0
-800
-16.5
HOME
21
0-12
15
0
1
76%
45
4
15.5
+550
+16.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALBUF28—MASS21
CLOSED BUF -16.5TOTAL 47.5MASS COVERED · 49 POINTS · OVER
BUF
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MASS
BUF
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MASS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=59
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADBUF -16.5
IMPLIED — BUF32.0
IMPLIED — MASS15.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
44FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
BUFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
BUFFALO won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MASSRECORD MATCHES
0-12ACTUALvs0.6-11.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-27.5
MASSACHUSETTS won 0 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 0.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBUFFALOMASSACHUSETTS2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%CJ OgbonnaQB · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE63%Jake OrlandoTE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJJ JenkinsWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaji JohnsonWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL40%Dom PolizziOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaelan ShepardOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB33%Shaun DolacLB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL31%Antonio ColcloughDE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaishon FolsomDT · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONC.J. BazileDE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB17%Jacqez BarksdaleRB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB17%Marcus FuquaS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTa'Quan Roberson · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEJason Wright · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEJasaiah Gathings · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNPhillip Folmar · SIGNEE ★3Alvin Jones III · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLJacob Merritt · PORTAL ★2 · MICHIGAN STATEThomas Barr · SIGNEE ★3Jackson Davenport · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBMitchell Gonser · PORTAL · HARVARDConnor Henderson · PORTAL · NORTH TEXASBradley Ilunga-Bisselele · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLChristopher Climes · SIGNEE ★3Rex Stinchcomb · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBNino Hill · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBKeontez Bradley · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEMiles Greer · PORTAL · SHEPHERDJackson Small · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BUFFALO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
67.798 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
54.581 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
74.599 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB1919171252 OF 5 GRADED
RB31313910085 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE292949602312 OF 23 GRADED
OL505035741812 OF 18 GRADED
DL494932981713 OF 17 GRADED
LB43433782138 OF 13 GRADED
DB505033692318 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE19th19
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%7
RECRUITING CLASS#92 · 0/18 BC32
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 8 IN / 10 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MASSJOE HARASYMIAKFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7171
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BUFPETE LEMBO2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBUF OFFENSEMASS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBUFFALO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE BUF QUARTERBACKSn=588% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 43 PLAYERS56% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBUFFALO OFFENSEFRONT-7MASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE BUF OFFENSIVE LINEn=1826% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBUFFALO OFFENSEFRONT-7MASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE BUF RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.551641%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBUFFALO OFFENSESECONDARYMASSACHUSETTS DEFENSE BUF PASS CATCHERSn=2340% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MASS SECONDARYn=14 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MASS
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−12
+13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MASS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MASS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.1%
53.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.7%
74.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.0%
2.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BUF, ORANGE = MASS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE