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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 6›BUF @ TOL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
USM @ TROY0
JXST @ KENN0
NMSU @ FIU0
MOST @ WKU0
SHSU @ LIB0
USA @ ARST0
USF @ UTSA0
FSU @ LOU0
IOWA @ WASH0
WYO @ SJSU0
WSU @ USU0
ISU @ BYU0
HAW @ ASU0
MINN @ PUR0
JMU @ GASO0
ILL @ MSU0
MISS @ VAN0
SYR @ UVA0
CLT @ UNT0
MD @ OSU0
HOU @ KSU0
USC @ PSU0
ODU @ APP0
TENN @ ARK0
UCF @ OKST0
LSU @ UK0
CMU @ OHIO0
CONN @ TEM0
WAKE @ NCSU0
RICE @ ECU0
ARIZ @ WVU0
UNC @ PITT0
CCU @ MRSH0
BALL @ NU0
KENT @ WMU0
UCLA @ ORE0
SAC @ BGSU0
KU @ UTAH0
M-OH @ MASS0
TA&M @ MIZ0
IU @ NEB0
UL @ LT0
NEV @ UTEP0
SC @ FLA0
VT @ CAL0
DUKE @ GT0
UAB @ MEM0
UGA @ ALA0
BUF @ TOL0
TULN @ ARMY0
STAN @ ND0
TEX @ OU0
EMU @ AKR0
TLSA @ NAVY0
SDSU @ ORST0
NDSU @ UNLV0
AF @ NIU0
BOIS @ FRES0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
BUFFALO
TOLEDO
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|GLASS BOWLCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP3|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
122FPI
BUFMACBUFFALO
1-1
13
6
32
-1%
87
1
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
76FPI
TOLMACTOLEDO
1-1
16
34
87
66%
21
3
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
BUF79CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
79
PROE
72
TEMPO
87
EXPLOSIVE79p
79
PROE72p
72
TEMPO87p
87
TOL64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
100
PROE
71
TEMPO
21
EXPLOSIVE100p
100
PROE71p
71
TEMPO21p
21
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BUFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
BUFFALO won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TOLRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs10.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.4
TOLEDO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBUFFALOTOLEDO2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Ta'Quan RobersonQB · 88% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGunnar GrayQB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL96%Henry TabansiOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor BrockOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler DotyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL87%Malin WhiteDE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKobe StewartDE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeorge WoloDT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB73%Red MurdockDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion CrawfordPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMitchell GonserLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE69%Victor SnowPORTAL · NC STATE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNik McMillanPORTAL · KANSAS · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus VelezTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB68%Al-Jay HendersonRB · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLamar SperlingPORTAL · UTEP · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB49%Solomon BrownCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen McNairPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquis CooperPORTAL · TOWSON · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBElijah Holmes · PORTAL ★3 · WINGATEQur'an McNeill · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLJoe Crocker · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORNathan Natoli · PORTAL ★3 · BUCKNELLNino Francavilla · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLLogan Goodwin · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANA-PENNSYLVANIAStantavious Smith · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA A&MLogan Goodwin · PORTAL ★3 · IU PENNSYLVANIA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJoey Cheshire · PORTAL ★3 · CORNELLStevie Bracey · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAZach Bergmann · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI SOUTHERN STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEAaron Clark · SIGNEE ★3Aiden Howard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBChase Enlow · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBSayre Smothers · PORTAL ★3 · THE CITADELBryce Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BUFFALO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.214 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
14.811 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.123 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB232317051 OF 5 GRADED
RB34344210063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE36364147229 OF 22 GRADED
OL5858440196 OF 19 GRADED
DL49493067219 OF 21 GRADED
LB47473250157 OF 15 GRADED
DB50503696227 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE13th13
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#101 · 0/19 BC25
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 16 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TOLMIKE JACOBSFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BUFPETE LEMBO3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
PACE
7171
PASS RATE
4949
EXPLOSIVENESS
3939
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HAVOC
7777
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBUF OFFENSETOL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBUFFALO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
137OF 138
TAL
17
PERF
23
RET
0
NATIONAL
25OF 136
RET
6
FULL DEFENSETOLEDO DEFENSE
BUF QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JASON WRIGHTQBRET
522ND YR—47★3—
ELIJAH HOLMESQBPORTAL · WINGATE
434TH YR—17★3-40
QUR'AN MCNEILLQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—72★3—
MASON CUMBIEQBRET
324TH YR—10★2—
JAKE FORBURGERQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS81% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6341%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
5745%0%
SECONDARYDB
500%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBUFFALO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
48OF 138
TAL
44
PERF
58
RET
0
DL
26OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
35OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE
BUF OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THOMAS BARROLRET
522ND YR—50★3—
JACKSON BELLAMYOLRET
523RD YR—21★3—
AHMAAN THOMASOLRET
523RD YR—8★2—
NINO FRANCAVILLAOLPORTAL · MIAMI
524TH YR—28★3—
GABRIEL ARENAOLRET
494TH YR—28★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS58% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH JOHNSONDEPORTAL · UAB
582ND YR4617★3—
JULIAN FOXLBTRUE FR
523RD YR20—UNR—
ANDREW ZOCKDEPORTAL · MERCER
523RD YR1645★3—
ISAAC ZAYLBRET
512ND YR37—UNR—
WAYNE PEART IIDLRET
492ND YR651★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBUFFALO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
127OF 138
TAL
42
PERF
34
RET
100
DL
26OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
35OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE
BUF RUNNING BACKSn=60% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMES MCNEIL JR.RBRET
523RD YR28—UNR+37
MESSIAH BURCHRBRET
524TH YR4619★3+12
TERRANCE SHELTON JR.RBRET
453RD YR5848★3-38
NINO HILLRBRET
352ND YR—35★3—
CHASE ENLOWRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—74★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS57% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556341%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455745%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBUFFALO OFFENSE
NATIONAL
127OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
36
RET
47
DB
76OF 138
DB RET
0
SECONDARYTOLEDO DEFENSE
BUF PASS CATCHERSn=2253% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CLINT WALKERTETRUE FR
504TH YR——UNR—
TREVOR WILSONTEPORTAL · CAMPBELL
504TH YR—9★3—
DWAYNE EARLY JR.WRRET
492ND YR—49★3—
JAYLEN ANDREWSWRTRUE FR
483RD YR——UNR—
CHANCE MORROWWRRET
464TH YR6067★3+33
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM100% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM JONESCBPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
523RD YR1717★3—
ISRAEL PETITECBTRUE FR
522ND YR17—★2—
MO CONTEHSTRUE FR
524TH YR1617★3—
TYRELL RUSSELLCBRET
491ST YR1457★3—
HYAJAH MILLERCBRET
492ND YR—53★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
55.0
45.0
— OFFENSE
54.2
45.5
— DEFENSE
55.9
44.4
SP+ OVERALL
-13.9
-4.9
FPI
-14.5
-1.6
ELO
1341
1576
TALENT
549
556
PRODUCTION
19
27
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−8
+9
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.02
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
OFF EFFICIENCY
22
69
DEF EFFICIENCY
72
97
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
17
36
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
56
92
FINISHING DRIVES
33
33
FIELD POSITION
41
17
TURNOVER MARGIN
16
62
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BUF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
PASS RATE
62.1%
45.7%
PACE
24.8s
31.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
46.1%
56.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
75.9%
48.8%
PLAYS / GAME
72.5
58.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
5.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BUF, ORANGE = TOL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE