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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 11›MASS @ TOL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
OHIO @ M-OH0
KENT @ BGSU0
WMU @ AKR0
BUF @ BALL0
SAC @ CMU0
MASS @ TOL0
MEM @ USF0
UL @ ULM0
FSU @ PITT0
ILL @ UCLA0
HOU @ COLO0
MICH @ ORE0
TULN @ RICE0
MINN @ PSU0
SC @ ARK0
CIN @ ISU0
AUB @ MSST0
WIS @ MD0
KU @ WVU0
USC @ IU0
UTAH @ ARIZ0
UAB @ TEM0
ASU @ UCF0
CAL @ UVA0
APP @ MRSH0
ECU @ CLT0
USM @ LT0
GASO @ GAST0
WASH @ MSU0
DUKE @ MIA0
MIZ @ UGA0
NEB @ RUTG0
KSU @ TCU0
UNT @ UTSA0
FAU @ TLSA0
GT @ CLEM0
TTU @ OKST0
WYO @ UTEP0
NU @ OSU0
MISS @ OU0
STAN @ VT0
ARST @ CCU0
FLA @ UK0
TENN @ TA&M0
TROY @ USA0
PUR @ IOWA0
ALA @ VAN0
WAKE @ SMU0
NEV @ NIU0
TEX @ LSU0
SYR @ NCSU0
LOU @ UNC0
BAY @ BYU0
JMU @ CONN0
KENN @ SHSU0
FIU @ DEL0
NMSU @ MOST0
JXST @ WKU0
MTSU @ LIB0
BC @ ND0
FRES @ TXST0
ORST @ BOIS0
SJSU @ AF0
UNLV @ UNM0
USU @ SDSU0
CSU @ WSU0
NDSU @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MASSACHUSETTS
TOLEDO
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
WED 00:00 ET|GLASS BOWLCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
117FPI
MASSMACMASSACHUSETTS
2-0
7
0
1
-57%
2
1
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
76FPI
TOLMACTOLEDO
1-1
16
34
87
66%
21
7
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MASS34CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
38
PROE
61
TEMPO
2
EXPLOSIVE38p
38
PROE61p
61
TEMPO2p
2
TOL64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
100
PROE
71
TEMPO
21
EXPLOSIVE100p
100
PROE71p
71
TEMPO21p
21
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MASSRECORD MATCHES
0-12ACTUALvs0.6-11.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-27.5
MASSACHUSETTS won 0 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 0.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TOLRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs10.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.4
TOLEDO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMASSACHUSETTSTOLEDO2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%AJ HairstonPORTAL · MERRIMACK · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrant JordanQB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon RosePORTAL · UTAH · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL94%Malcolm GreeneDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerrieon CraigDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTim Grant-RandallDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION11 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL78%Ryan MosessoOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBenjamin Roy Jr.OL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSullivan WeidmanOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB77%Brandon HoodRB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRocko GriffinRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJuwaun PriceRB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE49%Donnie GrayWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacquon GibsonPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenyon MasseyPORTAL · MERRIMACK · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB42%Brennen BaileyPORTAL · LAMAR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah McGillPORTAL · MAINE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamren Watkins-HunterPORTAL · CENTRAL WASHINGTON · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB41%Rashad HenryPORTAL · UCF · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonovan DysonPORTAL · MONMOUTH · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDean ShafferLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBLogan Inagawa · PORTAL ★3 · DRAKEAedan McCarthy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLZachary Betts · PORTAL ★3 · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)Aubrey Melvin · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNWilliam DePaepe · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLGreg Knox · PORTAL ★3 · MCNEESEAitor Urionabarrenechea · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATEWill McNamara · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJustin Williams-Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALLJordan Washington · PORTAL ★3 · MURRAY STATEJustin Lewis · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEJoseph Griffin Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINDevin Matthews · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TEXAS A&MKai Owens · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJahmad Harmon · PORTAL ★3 · BALL STATETerron Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Corey Warner · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBKendric Council · PORTAL ★3 · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MASSACHUSETTS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
31.726 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
32.741 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.224 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB373772051 OF 5 GRADED
RB2323305984 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE262622851910 OF 19 GRADED
OL26262449185 OF 18 GRADED
DL18182961812 OF 18 GRADED
LB1818186984 OF 8 GRADED
DB31311161208 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE7th7
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%37
RECRUITING CLASS#116 · 0/19 BC14
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TOLMIKE JACOBSFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MASSJOE HARASYMIAK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7171
PACE
4444
PASS RATE
9191
EXPLOSIVENESS
1414
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5050
HAVOC
00
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMASS OFFENSETOL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMASSACHUSETTS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
118OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
37
RET
0
NATIONAL
25OF 136
RET
6
FULL DEFENSETOLEDO DEFENSE
MASS QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WILLIAM WATSON IIIQBPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
464TH YR4772★3+31
LOGAN INAGAWAQBPORTAL · DRAKE
372ND YR—28★3—
AEDAN MCCARTHYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—62★3—
WILL PERRYQBRET
503RD YR——UNR—
TY MCCUTCHEONQBTRUE FR
353RD YR—37★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS81% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6341%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
5745%0%
SECONDARYDB
500%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMASSACHUSETTS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
136OF 138
TAL
24
PERF
26
RET
49
DL
26OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
35OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE
MASS OFFENSIVE LINEn=1851% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACHARY FRANKSOLRET
534TH YR589★3—
GREG KNOX IIIOLTRUE FR
494TH YR4145★3—
MAGNUS VON SALDERNOLRET
484TH YR——UNR—
JAXON KINGOLRET
474TH YR——UNR-40 2025
TANNER BURLINGAMEOLRET
473RD YR—25★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS58% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZACH JOHNSONDEPORTAL · UAB
582ND YR4617★3—
JULIAN FOXLBTRUE FR
523RD YR20—UNR—
ANDREW ZOCKDEPORTAL · MERCER
523RD YR1645★3—
ISAAC ZAYLBRET
512ND YR37—UNR—
WAYNE PEART IIDLRET
492ND YR651★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMASSACHUSETTS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
137OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
23
RET
59
DL
26OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
35OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7TOLEDO DEFENSE
MASS RUNNING BACKSn=841% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CURTIS KIMMONS IVRBTRUE FR
524TH YR24—UNR+31
JUSTIN WILLIAMS-THOMASRBPORTAL · MARSHALL
494TH YR—28★3-13 2025
ELIJAH FAULKNERRBRET
422ND YR51—UNR-57
TK DAVISRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—50★3—
DA'MARION ALBERICRBRET
483RD YR2132★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS57% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556341%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455745%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMASSACHUSETTS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
137OF 138
TAL
22
PERF
26
RET
85
DB
76OF 138
DB RET
0
SECONDARYTOLEDO DEFENSE
MASS PASS CATCHERSn=1915% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
T.Y. HARDINGWRRET
534TH YR657★2+32
REECE ADKINSTERET
474TH YR5317★3-8
JOSEPH GRIFFIN JR.WRPORTAL · WISCONSIN
444TH YR9028★3+14
MAX DOWLINGTERET
444TH YR73—★2-29
KEZION DIA-JOHNSONWRRET
433RD YR4659★3-47
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TOL SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM100% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CAM JONESCBPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
523RD YR1717★3—
ISRAEL PETITECBTRUE FR
522ND YR17—★2—
MO CONTEHSTRUE FR
524TH YR1617★3—
TYRELL RUSSELLCBRET
491ST YR1457★3—
HYAJAH MILLERCBRET
492ND YR—53★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MASS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.5
45.0
— OFFENSE
57.1
45.5
— DEFENSE
35.9
44.4
SP+ OVERALL
-25.2
-4.9
FPI
-11.2
-1.6
ELO
1049
1576
TALENT
526
556
PRODUCTION
0
27
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+24
+9
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.08
0.02
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MASS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
OFF EFFICIENCY
2
69
DEF EFFICIENCY
4
97
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
21
36
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
92
92
FINISHING DRIVES
0
33
FIELD POSITION
96
17
TURNOVER MARGIN
29
62
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MASS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TOL
PASS RATE
36.3%
45.7%
PACE
35.3s
31.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
72.0%
56.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
59.3%
48.8%
PLAYS / GAME
51.0
58.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
5.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MASS, ORANGE = TOL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE