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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›IOWA @ ILL›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
IOWA
ILLINOIS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#21AP
32FPI
IOWAB1GIOWA
2-0
69
48
93
34%
68
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
49FPI
ILLB1GILLINOIS
1-1
64
71
60
21%
13
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IOWA35CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
21
PROE
16
TEMPO
68
EXPLOSIVE21p
21
PROE16p
16
TEMPO68p
68
ILL39CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
45
PROE
59
TEMPO
13
EXPLOSIVE45p
45
PROE59p
59
TEMPO13p
13
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
IOWARECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
IOWA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ILLRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
ILLINOIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERIOWAILLINOIS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB93%Mark GronowskiQB · 93% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL78%Aaron GravesDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEthan HurkettDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax LlewellynDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB71%Karson ShararDRAFTED · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden HarrellLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaxon RexrothLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB56%Xavier NwankpaDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKoen EntringerPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ HallDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL55%Logan JonesDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGennings DunkerDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBeau StephensDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE45%Hayden LargeTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob GillWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam PhillipsWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB24%Jaziun PattersonPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ Washington Jr.PORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTradon Bessinger · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLLance Ingold · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ILLINOISEmmanuel Olagbaju · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTAKahmari Brown · PORTAL ★3 · ELON1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBJulian Manson · SIGNEE ★4Kasen Thomas · SIGNEE ★4Billy Weivoda · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBAnthony Hawkins · PORTAL ★3 · VILLANOVACody Haddad · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATETyler Brown · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLCarson Nielsen · SIGNEE ★4Hudson Parliament · SIGNEE ★4Gene Riordan · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TETony Diaz · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS-RIO GRANDE VALLEYLuke Brewer · SIGNEE ★3Brody Schaffer · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · IOWA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.542 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.267 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.728 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6262549053 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454639076 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE616155612316 OF 23 GRADED
OL727267881913 OF 19 GRADED
DL545471741916 OF 19 GRADED
LB515167731310 OF 13 GRADED
DB505063521912 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE69th69
BLUE-CHIP RATIO20%70
RECRUITING CLASS#26 · 8/19 BC81
CLASS RANK TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES62
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 15 IN / 8 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ILLBRET BIELEMA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
PACE
4343
PASS RATE
4949
EXPLOSIVENESS
1313
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HAVOC
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
IOWAKIRK FERENTZ11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
PACE
44
PASS RATE
1111
EXPLOSIVENESS
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
22
HAVOC
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESIOWA OFFENSEILL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBIOWA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
39OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
62
RET
90
NATIONAL
60OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSEILLINOIS DEFENSE
IOWA QUARTERBACKSn=510% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
HANK BROWNQBRET
504TH YR4445★3+17
JEREMY HECKLINSKIQBRET
483RD YR2264★3—
JIMMY SULLIVANQBRET
432ND YR863★3—
TRADON BESSINGERQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—94★4—
RYAN FITZGERALDQBRET
352ND YR—57★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4948%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4973%7%
SECONDARYDB
6164%10%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLIOWA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
10OF 138
TAL
67
PERF
72
RET
88
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
48
LB
63OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE
IOWA OFFENSIVE LINEn=1912% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREVOR LAUCKOLRET
744TH YR—84★4+10 2025
KADE PIEPEROLRET
734TH YR—39★3+26 2025
TRENT WILSONOLPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
552ND YR—45★3+12 2025
LEIGHTON JONESOLRET
524TH YR—78★3—
WILL NOLANOLRET
513RD YR—91★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS42% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EAN RHEADLPORTAL · EMORY & HENRY
524TH YR3128★3—
CARTER JANKIDLPORTAL · PENNSYLVANIA
524TH YR2817★3—
ISMAEL KANTELBRET
524TH YR45—UNR—
DEMETRIUS JOHNDLRET
512ND YR3174★3—
GRANT BEERMANLBRET
492ND YR3185★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBIOWA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
55OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
54
RET
90
DL
70OF 138
DL RET
48
LB
63OF 138
LB RET
73
FRONT-7ILLINOIS DEFENSE
IOWA RUNNING BACKSn=710% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KAMARI MOULTONRBRET
584TH YR9551★3+11
NATHAN MCNEILRBRET
482ND YR4770★3-45
XAVIER WILLIAMSRBRET
473RD YR5069★3+2
BRAEDEN JACKSONRBRET
442ND YR979★3—
O'LONTAE DEANRBRET
412ND YR165★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS41% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554948%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454973%7%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEIOWA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
34OF 138
TAL
55
PERF
61
RET
61
DB
25OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYILLINOIS DEFENSE
IOWA PASS CATCHERSn=2339% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DJ VONNAHMETERET
723RD YR5413★2+45 2025
TONY DIAZWRPORTAL · TEXAS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
493RD YR—45★3—
EVAN JAMESWRPORTAL · FURMAN
482ND YR—45★3—
THOMAS MEYERTERET
482ND YR—90★4—
ZACH ORTWERTHTERET
464TH YR6273★3+8
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ILL SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TANNER HECKELDBRET
763RD YR—53★3-8 2025
MATTHEW BAILEYDBRET
714TH YR10035★3+23
XAVIER SCOTTDBRET
604TH YR10048★3-16
JUICE CLARKEDBRET
584TH YR9054★3-15
MAC RESETICHDBRET
544TH YR7464★3+60
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
IOWA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
54.5
42.3
— OFFENSE
59.6
48.8
— DEFENSE
49.4
35.9
SP+ OVERALL
13.8
7.2
FPI
9.9
4.5
ELO
1845
1589
TALENT
723
704
PRODUCTION
85
80
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−11
−28
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.20
0.11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
IOWA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
OFF EFFICIENCY
67
89
DEF EFFICIENCY
75
11
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
2
14
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
98
81
FINISHING DRIVES
80
89
FIELD POSITION
4
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
75
41
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
IOWA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ILL
PASS RATE
51.1%
47.3%
PACE
26.3s
32.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
56.3%
59.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
68.3%
70.8%
PLAYS / GAME
68.5
55.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = IOWA, ORANGE = ILL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE