SAT 12:00 ET|UB STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP28|O/U44.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
15
8-5
37
20
60
46%
46
17
27.5
-395
-10.5
HOME
30
9-4
9
5
23
14%
70
1
17.0
+310
+10.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTOL15—BUF30
CLOSED TOL -10.5TOTAL 44.5BUF COVERED · 45 POINTS · OVER
TOL
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BUF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 7 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADTOL -10.5
IMPLIED — TOL27.5
IMPLIED — BUF17.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
42FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
TOLRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
TOLEDO won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BUFRECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.1
BUFFALO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTOLEDOBUFFALO2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL95%Devan RogersOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick RosiOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler LongOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB86%Dequan FinnPORTAL · BAYLOR · 86% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB68%Zachary FordS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris McDonaldCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuinyon MitchellDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Dallas GantLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrance TaylorLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdrian WoliverLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB51%Peny BoonePORTAL · UCF · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL22%Judge CulpepperDT · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE15%Dalton AndrewsTE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin MaddoxWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLJakob James · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEAllen Jones Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · PRAIRIE VIEW A&MJake Grimm · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBKalieb Osborne · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJadarrius Perkins · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAZeke Blake · PORTAL ★3 · YOUNGSTOWN STATEJay'Quan Bostic · SIGNEE ★35 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBLance Dixon · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIATrae Gaston · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLAnthony Dunn Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA A&MCarlos Hazelwood · SIGNEE ★3Cameron Gwinn · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TETerrell Crosby Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEZy'marion Lang · SIGNEE ★3Tashi Braceful · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TOLEDO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.229 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
38.023 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.036 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5353510062 OF 6 GRADED
RB1414367785 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE595948962417 OF 24 GRADED
OL484830462011 OF 20 GRADED
DL474749931712 OF 17 GRADED
LB404038841511 OF 15 GRADED
DB404043892015 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE37th37
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%31
RECRUITING CLASS#66 · 0/22 BC51
CLASS RANK TREND+26 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 7 IN / 11 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BUFPETE LEMBOFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TOLJASON CANDLE9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTOL OFFENSEBUF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTOLEDO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBUFFALO DEFENSE TOL QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS25% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTOLEDO OFFENSEFRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE TOL OFFENSIVE LINEn=2054% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS41% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTOLEDO OFFENSEFRONT-7BUFFALO DEFENSE TOL RUNNING BACKSn=823% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS38% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553637%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETOLEDO OFFENSESECONDARYBUFFALO DEFENSE TOL PASS CATCHERSn=244% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BUF SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−6
−29
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TOL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BUF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.8%
62.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS72.3%
57.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
2.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TOL, ORANGE = BUF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE