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HOME›TEAMS›ALABAMA›2018TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
SEC|NICK SABAN|—RECORD13-0|CONF—
ALABAMA#2 AP 2 FPISEC · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
99FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#514 BC / 21
BC RATIO
72%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs12.2-0.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+33.1
13 wins against a scoring profile describing 12.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
72MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1HLOUISVILLE—W 51-14722525+75BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 8HARKANSAS STATE—W 57-7384545+55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15AOLE MISS—W 62-7857575+25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22HTEXAS A&M#16W 45-23899292+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29HLOUISIANA—W 56-14262828+72BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6AARKANSAS—W 65-31816060+40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13HMISSOURI—W 39-10679191+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20ATENNESSEE—W 58-21906464+36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 3ALSU#6W 29-0969797+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10HMISSISSIPPI STATE—W 24-0849595+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17HTHE CITADEL—W 50-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
13NOV 24HAUBURN—W 52-21919595+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 1AGEORGIA#7W 35-28999999+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JALEN HURTSQB SERET
★4—00%——
13
TUA TAGOVAILOAQB JURET
★5—00%——
10
MAC JONESQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
3
LAYNE HATCHERQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
16
KYLE EDWARDSQB —RET
UNR★300%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET70NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
RONNIE CLARKRB SERET
UNR—00%——
34
DAMIEN HARRISRB SERET
UNR—00%——
8
JOSH JACOBSRB JURET
★3—00%——
22
NAJEE HARRISRB SERET
★5—00%——
4
BRIAN ROBINSON JR.RB SERET
★4—00%——
24
JEROME FORDRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
35
DE'MARQUISE LOCKRIDGERB SERET
UNR—00%——
39
JAHI BROWNRB JURET
UNR—00%——
33
KENDALL NORRISRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
JERRY JEUDYWR JURET
★5—00%——
11
HENRY RUGGS IIIWR JURET
★4—00%——
81
DEREK KIEFWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
HALE HENTGESTE SERET
UNR—00%——
82
IRV SMITH JR.TE JURET
★3—00%——
6
DEVONTA SMITHWR SERET
★4—00%——
17
JAYLEN WADDLEWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
81
CAMERON LATUTE SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
19
XAVIAN MARKSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
DREW KOBAYASHIWR SERET
★3—00%——
87
MILLER FORRISTALLTE SERET
★3—00%——
43
DANIEL POWELLTE SERET
UNR—00%——
84
JOSHUA LANIERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
GILES AMOSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
16
MAC HEREFORDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
14
TYRELL SHAVERSWR SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
88
MAJOR TENNISONTE SERET
★4—00%——
5
CHADARIUS TOWNSENDWR SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
83
JOHN PARKERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
86
CONNOR ADAMSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
32
JALEN JACKSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
16
DALTON ADKISONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
86
QUINDARIUS WATKINSTE JURET
UNR—00%——
46
MELVIN BILLINGSLEYTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
31
BRYCE MUSSOWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
44
KEDRICK JAMESTE —RET
★4—00%——
30
CHRIS HERRINGWR —RET
UNR—00%——
85
CHRIS GOLDENWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS21 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EYABI OKIE-ANOMAHS RECRUITWDE★5UNR
PATRICK SURTAIN IIHS RECRUITCB★5UNR
JAYLEN WADDLEHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
STEPHON WYNNHS RECRUITSDE★4UNR
JALYN ARMOUR-DAVISHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
JORDAN DAVISHS RECRUITWDE★4UNR
JOSH JOBEHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
EMIL EKIYORHS RECRUITOC★4UNR
CAMERON LATUHS RECRUITWDE★4UNR
TOMMY BROWNHS RECRUITOG★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT22 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MEKHI BROWNTENNESSEE STATELBUNRUNR
MINKAH FITZPATRICKNFL DRAFT R1DBUNR—
DA'RON PAYNENFL DRAFT R1DLUNR—
CALVIN RIDLEYNFL DRAFT R1WRUNR—
ANTHONY AVERETTNFL DRAFT R4DBUNR—
SHAUN DION HAMILTONNFL DRAFT R6LBUNR—
RASHAAN EVANSNFL DRAFT R1LBUNR—
JOSHUA FRAZIERNFL DRAFT R7DLUNR—
DA'SHAWN HANDNFL DRAFT R4DLUNR—
BO SCARBROUGHNFL DRAFT R7RBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#5NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
14OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9142COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST76% BACK76th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG76% BACK76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE