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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2017 FINAL
SUN BELT|SCOTT SATTERFIELD|—RECORD8-4|CONF—
APP STATE63 FPISBC · 2017 SEASON
TALENT
21FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1070 BC / 19
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2017 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+11.5
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
30MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2AGEORGIA#2L 10-31989898-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HSAVANNAH STATE—W 54-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16ATEXAS STATE—W 20-13822+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HWAKE FOREST—L 19-20517676-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 45-3162222+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AIDAHO—W 23-20————NON-FBS OPPONENT
8OCT 21HCOASTAL CAROLINA—W 37-294———NON-FBS OPPONENT
9OCT 28AMASSACHUSETTS—L 27-30302121+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AUL MONROE—L 45-52141414+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 27-6281010+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AGEORGIA STATE—W 31-10271313+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2HLOUISIANA—W 63-14161010+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET98NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
TAYLOR LAMBQB —RET
UNR—00%——
17
CURTIS FITCHQB —RET
UNR—00%——
8
JACOB HUESMANQB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
12
ZAC THOMASQB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
2
ZEB SPEIRQB JURET
UNR—00%——
13
PEYTON DERRICKQB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET53NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
TERRENCE UPSHAWRB —RET
UNR—00%——
MARCUS WILLIAMS JR.RB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
16
DE'VONTA SMITHRB —NO SNAPS
★2—00%——
25
JALIN MOORERB SERET
UNR—00%——
27
DEMARCUS HARPERRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
4
DAETRICH HARRINGTONRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
3
DARRYNTON EVANSRB JURET
★2—00%——
22
D'ANDRE HICKSRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
27
NAKENDRICK CLARKRB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
86
LEVI DUFFIELDTE —RET
UNR—00%——
13
DANTE JONESWR —RET
UNR—00%——
88
T.J. WATKINSWR —RET
UNR—00%——
2
IKE LEWISWR —RET
UNR—00%——
82
ZY LETMANWR —RET
UNR—00%——
20
A'DARIUS PURIFOYWR SORET
★2—00%——
18
BRAD ABSHERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
87
COLLIN REEDTE SERET
UNR—00%——
11
JALEN VIRGILWR SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
5
THOMAS HENNIGANWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
14
MALIK WILLIAMSWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
6
SHAEDON MEADORSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
15
MOCK ADAMSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
89
DEVIN PAPENHEIMTE JURET
UNR—00%——
21
MICHAEL QUEENWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
18
MIKE EVANSTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
19
JOHN JENNINGSWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
CRISJOHN ROSCOEWR —RET
★2—00%——
22
BROCK GUSLERWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
DILLON GOODEWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
ZEKE BRANDLETE —NO SNAPS
★3—00%——
2
COREY SUTTONWR —NO SNAPS
★3—00%——
46
BILL CECILTE —RET
UNR—00%——
9
JAKE EASTERWR —RET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALIK WILLIAMSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
THOMAS HENNIGANHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
D'ANDRE HICKSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
RYAN HUFFHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ZEKE BRANDLEHS RECRUITSDE★3UNR
NOAH HANNONHS RECRUITOC★3UNR
JOE HARTUNGHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
DAETRICH HARRINGTONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JERMAINE MCDANIELHS RECRUITSDE★2UNR
MARKELL CLARKHS RECRUITDT★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT19 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAQUIL CAPELNORTH CAROLINA A&TWRUNRUNR
DARIAN SMALLNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
BARRETT BURNSNOT LISTEDTEUNR—
TYSON FERNANDEZNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
ALEX GRAYNOT LISTEDDBUNR—
JOHN LAWNOT LISTEDILBUNR—
MARCUS COXNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
BENTLEE CRITCHERNOT LISTEDPUNR—
KENNAN GILCHRISTNOT LISTEDOLBUNR—
NATE NORWOODNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#107NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.7919COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST73% BACK73th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG73% BACK73th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE