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HOME›TEAMS›APP STATE›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
SUN BELT|SHAWN CLARK|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
APP STATE33 FPISBC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
35FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#690 BC / 22
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
10-3ACTUALvs10.3-2.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+14.9
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
42MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HEAST CAROLINA—W 33-19454040+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11AMIAMI—L 23-25917676-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 18HELON—W 44-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23HMARSHALL—W 31-30366161+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2AGEORGIA STATE—W 45-16264545+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ALOUISIANA#16L 13-41316464+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20HCOASTAL CAROLINA—W 30-27288181-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30HUL MONROE—W 59-281255+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6AARKANSAS STATE—W 48-144099+64BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 31-7272525+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20ATROY—W 45-7342828+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 27-3211010+63BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 4ALOUISIANA#16L 16-24316464+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET1NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
CHASE BRICEQB SEPORTAL · DUKE
★3★300%—HELD
8
JACOB HUESMANQB SERET
★2—00%——
10
TANNER WILSONQB SERET
UNR—00%——
21
NAVY SHULERQB SERET
★3—00%——
7
DC TABSCOTTQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET84NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
34
JAHMIR SMITHRB JUPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
★3★300%—HELD
6
CAMERUN PEOPLESRB JURET
★2—00%——
4
ANDERSON CASTLERB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
8
NATE NOELRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
4
DAETRICH HARRINGTONRB SERET
★3—00%——
45
GABE MONTGOMERYRB SERET
UNR—00%——
MARCUS WILLIAMS JR.RB SERET
UNR—00%——
24
BEN WILLIAMSRB SORET
UNR—00%——
33
LOGAN CRUCERB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
CHRISTAN HORNWR SERET
★3—00%——
81
MILLER GIBBSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
18
MIKE EVANSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
6
DASHAUN DAVISWR JURET
★3★200%—FELL
2
COREY SUTTONWR SERET
★3—00%——
88
HENRY PEARSONTE SERET
★3—00%——
87
ELI WILSONTE SERET
★3—00%——
8
DALTON STROMANWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
11
JALEN VIRGILWR SERET
★2—00%——
5
THOMAS HENNIGANWR SERET
★3—00%——
14
MALIK WILLIAMSWR SERET
★3—00%——
MILAN TUCKERWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
9
CHRISTIAN WELLSWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
33
PETER HENNIGANTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
86
TREY ROSSTE JURET
★3—00%——
80
AJ HALLWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
JACOBY PINCKNEYWR JURET
★4—00%——
25
SEAN HORTONWR SORET
UNR—00%——
21
ELIJAH JOHNSONWR SORET
UNR—00%——
89
AUGUST DREWSTE SORET
★2—00%——
84
DA'SHAWN BROWNWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
11
COEN SUTTONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★200%—FELL
12
MICHAEL HETZELWR JURET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JADEN LINDSAYHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
COLSTON POWERSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
DC TABSCOTTHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DA'SHAWN BROWNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DALTON STROMANHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TROY EVERETTHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DESHAWN MCKNIGHTHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAQUAN LOWMANHS RECRUITS★3UNR
KARON WHITEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
TREVOR MOFFITTHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN3 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHASE BRICEDUKEPRO★3★3
STUART HEADSTANFORDS★3★3
MADISON CONEWISCONSINS★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT10 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SHEMAR JEAN-CHARLESNFL DRAFT R5DB★2—
RYKER CASEYELIGIBILITY UPPKUNR—
ZAC THOMASELIGIBILITY UPQB★2—
RYAN NEUZILELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
ELIJAH DIARRASSOUBAELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
ZAC CROSBYELIGIBILITY UPTE★2—
TRISTAN WALLISERELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
JAKE HENRYNOT LISTEDWR★2—
TANNER ELLENBERGERNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
TOMMY WRIGHTNOT LISTEDDB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#69NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8318COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
74 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
18TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
1
3
6
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.8 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +7 W
IMPROVED10 OF 18
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST58% BACK58th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG58% BACK58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR1%1th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE