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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SUN BELT|SHAWN CLARK|—RECORD5-6|CONF—
APP STATE95 FPISBC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
39FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
72%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#940 BC / 19
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-6ACTUALvs4.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN-6.3
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE41
PERFORMANCE41
TALENT50
CONTINUITY73
DEFENSE11
PERFORMANCE11
TALENT45
CONTINUITY72
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE11 PLAYED · 1 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
48MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
47MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
-1REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HEAST TENNESSEE STATE—W 38-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7ACLEMSON#14L 20-66978484-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AEAST CAROLINA—W 21-19474545-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 19HSOUTH ALABAMA—L 14-48325555-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HLIBERTY—UPCOMING374747-21STILL TO COME
6OCT 5AMARSHALL—L 37-52425757-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ALOUISIANA—L 24-34316161-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HGEORGIA STATE—W 33-263488+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HOLD DOMINION—W 28-2072929-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7ACOASTAL CAROLINA—L 24-38342727-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HJAMES MADISON—W 34-20137070-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 20-29244444-18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB69TAL45PERF69RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
JOEY AGUILARQB SERET
UNR★390100%+21EMERGED
9
BILLY WILESQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%-27HELD
16
DAVID HERNANDEZQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
19
CAMERON ESTEPQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB40TAL40PERF40RET100ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
AHMANI MARSHALLRB SERET
★3—8641%-5—
2
KANYE ROBERTSRB SERET
★2★27628%0HELD
4
ANDERSON CASTLERB SERET
★3★36718%+7HELD
28
MAQUEL HAYWOODRB SERET
UNR★26013%+26EMERGED
20
JAYLON CALHOUNRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
26
KHAMANI ALEXANDERRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
27
MICHAEL DIPASQUALERB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE62TAL51PERF58RET97ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
MAKAI JACKSONWR SERET
UNR★39430%+25EMERGED
2
KAEDIN ROBINSONWR SERET
UNR★39128%+31EMERGED
87
ELI WILSONTE SERET
★3—8650%+5—
8
DALTON STROMANWR SERET
★3—7617%+31—
13
CHRISTAN HORNWR SERET
★3—7215%+28—
85
DAVID LARKINSTE SERET
★3—6119%-18—
6
KANEN HAMLETTTE SERET
★3★35816%-39HELD
80
MAX DRAGTE JURET
★3★35614%—HELD
12
MICHAEL HETZELWR JURET
UNR—555%-12—
12
WILLIAM FOWLESWR SOPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
★3★3443%—HELD
15
ZAVIER SHORTWR JUPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
★3★3271%—HELD
44
JARED GIBBLETE SENO SNAPS
★3—212%——
82
CHRIS LAWSON JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3★3181%—HELD
83
JACK KELLYTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
21
REECE LARSONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
AYDEN BURKEYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
81
JOSE LEONWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
88
BRYCE GEEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
25
ZAHN COAKLEYWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
88
LUKE HALEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
FRANKLIN BARET JR.WR SONO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
25
BLAKE HOBANWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL58TAL48PERF58RET50n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL51TAL59PERF51RET82n=10 · 8 METRICS · 57 OBS
▸LB37TAL36PERF37RET96n=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DB44TAL39PERF44RET53n=11 · 6 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KHAMANI ALEXANDERHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JACKSON BUSSEYHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DENIGEL COOPERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JOSE LEONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ANTHONY ROSIERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
NICK TAYLORHS RECRUITS★3UNR
BUCCI FARMERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
FELIX DOEGEHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
BRYCE GEEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TREY LENHARDTHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LUKE BURGESSLOUISVILLEOT★3★3
AVARION COLENORTH CAROLINA A&TSUNR★3
MYLES FARMERSYRACUSES★3★3
JASON CHAMBERSNORTH CAROLINA CENTRALCBUNR★3
WILLIAM FOWLESLOUISVILLEWR★3★3
MICHAEL MAROTTAVALDOSTA STATEIOLUNR★3
NICK CAMPBELLNC STATEDL★3★3
JOSHUA DONALDTROYDLUNR★3
GARNER LANGLOAUBURNOT★3★3
ANDRES DEWERKUSCIOL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT22 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEANDRE DINGLE-PRINCENORTH CAROLINA A&TDE★3★3
NATE NOELMISSOURIRB★3★3
KEVON HAIGLERMURRAY STATEDE★3★3
DONOVAN SPELLMANCHARLOTTELB★3★3
MILAN TUCKERFLORIDA ATLANTICWR★3★3
OMARI PHILYAWTENNESSEE TECHDB★3★3
RYAN BURGERLIBERTYQB★3★3
TREVOR MOFFITTGARDNER-WEBBLB★3★3
ISAIAH HELMSELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
DAMION DALEYELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES35%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS24%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#94NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8317COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1521 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST79% BACK79th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG79% BACK79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR50%50th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST53%53th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE