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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SEC|SAM PITTMAN|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
ARKANSAS36 FPISEC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
82FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
55%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
60%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-9IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#317 BC / 17
BC RATIO
38%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.3
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE97
PERFORMANCE97
TALENT84
CONTINUITY55
DEFENSE81
PERFORMANCE81
TALENT76
CONTINUITY60
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
67MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF—W 70-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AOKLAHOMA STATE—L 31-39624040+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HUAB—W 37-27402020+63BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21AAUBURN—W 24-14887676+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ATEXAS A&M—L 17-21969191-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HTENNESSEE#9W 19-14889494-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HLSU—L 10-34948989-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AMISSISSIPPI STATE—W 58-25763535+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HOLE MISS#11L 31-63869999-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HTEXAS#4L 10-20989595-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HLOUISIANA TECH—W 35-14261818+65BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AMISSOURI#22L 21-28878686-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27HTEXAS TECH—W 39-26736060+23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB69TAL76PERF69RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
TAYLEN GREENQB SEPORTAL · BOISE STATE
★3★39492%+25HELD
3
MALACHI SINGLETONQB SERET
★4★3417%+39FELL
7
KJ JACKSONQB JUNO SNAPS
★4—111%——
16
BLAKE BODAQB FRPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
★3★300%—HELD
19
AUSTIN LEDBETTERQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB60TAL92PERF60RET21ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
JA'QUINDEN JACKSONRB SEPORTAL · UTAH
★4★49245%+14HELD
7
RASHOD DUBINIONRB SERET
★4★37521%-11FELL
0
BRAYLEN RUSSELLRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★47117%+7HELD
1
RODNEY HILLRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★36614%+13FELL
29
TYRELL REED JR.RB SONO SNAPS
UNR★3333%—EMERGED
41
KYLE THOMPSONFB JURET
UNR—00%——
21
EMMANUEL CRAWFORDRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
28
JEZREEL BACHERTRB SORET
UNR—00%——
36
CADE FIELDSRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE58TAL83PERF56RET81ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
ANDREW ARMSTRONGWR SERET
UNR—9725%+33—
1
ISAIAH SATEGNA IIIWR SERET
★4—9624%-26—
9
LUKE HASZTE SERET
★4★49353%+22HELD
5
TYRONE BRODENWR SERET
★3★49020%+14ROSE
4
ISAAC TESLAAWR SERET
UNR★38416%-2EMERGED
81
ANDREAS PAASKETE SEPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
★3★36721%+34HELD
11
JORDAN ANTHONYWR SOPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★4★3647%-37FELL
7
TY WASHINGTONTE SERET
★3★35612%+49HELD
3
CJ BROWNWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—523%——
47
MADDOX LASSITERTE SERET
UNR—487%——
30
VAR'KEYES GUMMSTE JURET
★3★3477%+35HELD
6
KROSSE JOHNSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3341%—HELD
11
MONTE HARRISONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—311%——
83
DAZMIN JAMESWR SERET
★3★3261%——
5
DAVION DOZIERWR SERET
★4★3200%—FELL
89
KHAFRE BROWNWR SEPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
★4★3180%+22FELL
9
KAM BIBBYWR JURET
UNR—130%——
84
SHAMAR EASTERTE JURET
★4★3111%—FELL
11
JAEDON WILSONWR SERET
★3★3110%-12HELD
82
ZACH TAYLORWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
14
BRYCE STEPHENSWR JURET
★3★300%-8HELD
80
RYKAR ACEBOWR JURET
UNR—00%——
31
SPENCER HENSLEETE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
86
WALKER CATSAVISWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
49
LUKE JOHNSTONTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
85
JACE PETTYWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
LUKE BUCHANANWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL83PERF51RET45n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL57TAL85PERF57RET89n=9 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸LB59TAL86PERF59RET21n=5 · 10 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸DB50TAL64PERF50RET54n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHARLIE COLLINSHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
SELMAN BRIDGESHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
BRADLEY SHAWHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
KAVION HENDERSONHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
BRAYLEN RUSSELLHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
KJ JACKSONHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
JULIUS POPEHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
WYATT SIMMONSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JUSTIN LOGANHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CJ BROWNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JA'QUINDEN JACKSONUTAHRB★4★4
ANTON JUNCAJUALBANYDLUNR★4
XAVIAN SOREY JR.GEORGIALB★5★4
ADDISON NICHOLSTENNESSEEIOL★4★3
FERNANDO CARMONASAN JOSÉ STATEOT★3★3
KEYSHAWN BLACKSTOCKMICHIGAN STATEIOLUNR★3
DANNY SAILIBYUDLUNR★3
ANTHONY SWITZERUTAH STATES★2★3
MIGUEL MITCHELLFLORIDAS★3★3
DONEIKO SLAUGHTERTENNESSEECB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LORANDO JOHNSONBAYLORCB★4★3
JAHEIM THOMASWISCONSINLB★4★3
CHRIS PAUL JR.OLE MISSLB★3★4
ANDREW CHAMBLEESMUOL★4★3
DEVON MANUELFLORIDAOL★3★3
KJ JEFFERSONUCFQB★4★3
TAUREAN CARTER IICOLORADODT★3UNR
ANTHONY BOOKER JR.SMUDTUNR★3
JORDAN CROOKARIZONA STATELB★3★3
RAHEIM SANDERSSOUTH CAROLINARB★4★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES82%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS20%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#31NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
7OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8879COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2231 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST31% BACK31th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG31% BACK31th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR45%45th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST54%54th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE