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HOME›TEAMS›ARKANSAS STATE›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
SUN BELT|BUTCH JONES|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
ARKANSAS STATE112 FPISBC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
37FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
11%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#670 BC / 18
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.4-7.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-6.4
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE30
PERFORMANCE30
TALENT62
CONTINUITY11
DEFENSE17
PERFORMANCE17
TALENT47
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
46MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HGRAMBLING—W 58-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 10AOHIO STATE#4L 12-45999898-79BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17AMEMPHIS—L 32-44476363-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24AOLD DOMINION—L 26-292819190BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1HUL MONROE—W 45-28141111+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HJAMES MADISON—L 20-4256262-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15ASOUTHERN MISS—L 19-20393939-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22ALOUISIANA—L 18-38345252-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29HSOUTH ALABAMA—L 3-31377575-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HMASSACHUSETTS—W 35-331200+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19ATEXAS STATE—L 13-16362323-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26HTROY#19L 19-48356767-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB40TAL76PERF40RET89ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JAMES BLACKMANQB SERET
★3★38689%+6HELD
17
AJ MAYERQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—429%-15—
15
JAXON DAILEYQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3212%—HELD
22
CHASE CAMPBELLQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB42TAL39PERF42RET60ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
JOHNNIE LANGRB SERET
★3★38646%+21HELD
4
BRIAN SNEADRB SENO SNAPS
★4—7024%-31—
34
MARCEL MURRAYRB JURET
★2—5914%0—
11
JA'QUEZ CROSSRB SENO SNAPS
★3★35311%-50HELD
20
MIKE SHARPE IIRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3395%-53HELD
35
TORRANCE FARMERRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
AY'JON GREENRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
24
BOBBY MCMILLIANRB FRRET
★3—00%——
41
CARL LEWISRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
37
TYLER WILLIAMSRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
44
CASEY JOHNSON IIIRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE64TAL65PERF51RET81ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
SEYDOU TRAORETE SERET
UNR★49562%+37EMERGED
14
JEFF FOREMANWR SERET
★3—8725%+11—
7
CHAMP FLEMINGSWR SENO SNAPS
★3—8222%+13—
10
TE'VAILANCE HUNTWR SERET
★4—7316%+4—
12
MANNY STEVENSON JR.TE SERET
UNR—7127%-11—
11
ADAM JONESWR SERET
UNR—7115%+32—
15
REAGAN EALYWR SERET
UNR—6310%-57—
DAVERRICK JENKINSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—525%+31—
8
KHYHEEM WALEEDWR SORET
★3★3515%-53HELD
87
REED TYLERTE SERET
★2—447%-40—
2
MILLER MCCRUMBYTE SENO SNAPS
★3★3354%—HELD
89
CJ CAGEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—231%——
11
OMARI WALKERWR SERET
★3★3231%—HELD
80
JADEN MILLINERWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—201%——
88
VERSHAUD RICHARDSONTE SORET
★3★370%—HELD
CAMERON HARRISWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
MARQUIS HARRISWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
82
JOSEPH ADAMSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
6
WYATT BEGEALWR SORET
★3—00%——
85
THOMAS VAUGHANTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
86
WALKER CATSAVISWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
17
TRACE CORUMWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
84
BRONTE GALLOTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
29
BRODY MCKINNONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
30
WILL WHALEYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
89
BLAKE WILEYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL36TAL61PERF36RET0n=5 · 3 METRICS · 14 OBS
▸DL49TAL51PERF49RET52n=11 · 7 METRICS · 59 OBS
▸LB45TAL45PERF45RET74n=7 · 10 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸DB50TAL46PERF50RET77n=8 · 6 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MILLER MCCRUMBYHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
ELIJAH ZOLLICOFFERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAXON DAILEYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
AHMAD ROBINSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KEYRON CRAWFORDHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
BENSON PROSPERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
WEBSLEY ETIENNEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DAVERRICK JENKINSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAMES REED IIIHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JAVANTE MACKEYHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
VIDAL SCOTTTEXAS TECHDLUNRUNR
COREY RUCKERSOUTH CAROLINAWR★3★3
TERRY HAMPTONARKANSASDL★3UNR
LAYNE HATCHERTEXAS STATEQB★3★3
JARIUS REIMONENQJAMES MADISONS★3UNR
LINCOLN PARETEXAS STATERB★2UNR
TORREN COPPAGE-ELELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
CALEB BONNERELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
BOOKER FICKLINELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
ELERY ALEXANDERELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#67NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8437COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST25% BACK25th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG25% BACK25th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR89%89th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST77%77th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE