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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|JEFF MONKEN|—RECORD6-6|CONF—
ARMY76 FPIAAC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
1FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
25%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1580 BC / 30
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.1
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE62
PERFORMANCE62
TALENT27
CONTINUITY25
DEFENSE33
PERFORMANCE33
TALENT21
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
40MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3ACOASTAL CAROLINA—L 28-38304848-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HUTSA—L 38-41466464-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17HVILLANOVA—W 49-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5OCT 1HGEORGIA STATE—L 14-31384040+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8AWAKE FOREST—L 10-45526868-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15HCOLGATE—W 42-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
8OCT 22HUL MONROE—W 48-24141111+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5HAIR FORCE—L 7-1305656-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12ATROY#19L 9-10356767-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HUCONN—W 34-1791515+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26AMASSACHUSETTS—W 44-71200+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 10HNAVY—W 20-1702929+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB66TAL10PERF66RET98ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
CADE BALLARDQB SERET
★2—4642%+35—
7
JEMEL JONESQB SERET
UNR—4334%+25—
2
TYHIER TYLERQB SERET
★2—3623%+37—
13
BRYSON DAILYQB SENO SNAPS
★2—42%——
4
AHLON MITCHELLQB SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
1
ZACH MUNDELLQB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
6
JACOB AZIZIQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
10
DEWAYNE COLEMANQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
17
ALEX MEREDITHQB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▾RB59TAL16PERF59RET80COMMITTEEn=6 · 5 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
BRAHEAM MURPHYRB SERET
UNR—6424%+40—
32
TYSON RILEYRB SERET
UNR—5214%-17—
33
JAKOBI BUCHANANRB SERET
UNR—6222%+30—
21
TYRELL ROBINSONRB SERET
UNR—6121%+42—
8
HAYDEN REEDRB SENO SNAPS
★3—469%+1—
27
MARKEL JOHNSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★2—459%+30—
9
MAURICE BELLANRB SERET
UNR—448%+40—
5
JAREL DICKSONRB SENO SNAPS
★2—273%+14—
22
MILES STEWARTRB SENO SNAPS
★3—253%——
42
AJ WILLIAMSRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—51%——
38
NOAH ALEXANDERRB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
44
DAKODA WAGNERRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
30
LUCKY BROOKSRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
48
BO KITERB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
15
KALEI AKAGIRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
19
SABASTIAN SHANNONRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
20
JOFRANSTAR GRAHAMRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
23
GREG DANIELRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
25
DONOVAN BAKERRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
26
DALLIS SMALLRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
37
ZACH OGBOGURB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
46
CASEY SHORTERRB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
43
HUNTER RODDYRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE67TAL32PERF67RET89ONE OWNERn=3 · 7 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
88
JOSHUA LINGENFELTERTE SERET
UNR—9578%——
8
ISAIAH ALSTONWR SERET
UNR★36238%+33EMERGED
3
AY'JAUN MARSHALLWR SERET
UNR—5830%+30—
5
COLE CATERBONEWR SERET
★2—5119%-59—
82
VESHE DANIYANWR SERET
UNR—4413%——
85
DAVID CROSSANTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—334%——
89
BLANE CLEAVERTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—314%——
87
CASEY REYNOLDSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—71%——
86
WILL MONTESITE SENO SNAPS
UNR—40%——
16
TAYLOR SAULSBERRYWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
NOAH SHORTWR SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
80
RYAN JACKOVICWR SERET
UNR—00%——
45
COOPER WILKINSONTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
44
PATRICK HESTERTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
LOGAN BURKSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
CAM SCHURRWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
ISAIAH LIGEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
37
BRYCE DAVISWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
ZION JACKSONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
4
LIAM FORTNERWR SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
31
MICHAEL DAVISWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL46TAL33PERF46RET0n=9 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL36TAL17PERF36RET85n=8 · 7 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸LB44TAL22PERF44RET85n=8 · 11 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸DB42TAL29PERF42RET88n=10 · 6 METRICS · 41 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LARRY ROBINSONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
NICK MOOREHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
TANO LETULIHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
CHRISTIAN YOUSEFZADEHHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
SAM DECHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CADEN HARMANHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KANYE UDOHHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HUNTER RODDYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
GARRETT MCGRIFFHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BRIDGER KNEEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DARYAN MCDONALDELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
ANTHONY ADKINSELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
JUSTIN LESCOUFLAIRELIGIBILITY UPRBUNR—
CHRISTIAN ANDERSONNOT LISTEDQB★3—
JULIAN MCDUFFIENOT LISTEDCB★2—
JABARI LAWSNOT LISTEDQB★2—
MICHAEL ROBERTSNOT LISTEDWR★2—
MALKELM MORRISONNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
CADE BARNARDNOT LISTEDRB★3—
BRANDON WALTERSNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#158NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 30 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8129COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
26TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
5
9
7
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +9 W
IMPROVED12 OF 26
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST52% BACK52th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG52% BACK52th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST88%88th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE