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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|JEFF MONKEN|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
ARMY76 FPIAAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
1FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
83%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
88%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-11IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1300 BC / 50
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
6-6ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-5
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.3
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE34
PERFORMANCE34
TALENT16
CONTINUITY83
DEFENSE42
PERFORMANCE42
TALENT25
CONTINUITY88
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
49MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HTARLETON STATE—L 27-30————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6AKANSAS STATE—W 24-21667070-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HNORTH TEXAS#24L 38-45318484-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 25AEAST CAROLINA—L 6-28447373-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AUAB—W 31-132688+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HCHARLOTTE—W 24-72211+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ATULANE#18L 17-24516767-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AAIR FORCE—W 20-1704141+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HTEMPLE—W 14-13183636+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HTULSA—L 25-26392424+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AUTSA—W 27-24535555-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
16DEC 13ANAVY#23L 16-1716666-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27HUCONN—W 41-16306161-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB36TAL0PERF36RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 6 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
CALE HELLUMSQB SERET
UNR—6875%+24—
10
DEWAYNE COLEMANQB SERET
UNR—5025%-4—
1
ZACH MUNDELLQB SERET
★2—00%——
17
SETH SHIGGQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
9
ETHAN WASHINGTONQB SORET
UNR—00%——
6
BRYSON LUTERQB SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
13
BLAKE OWENQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB42TAL17PERF42RET81COMMITTEEn=7 · 9 METRICS · 28 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
HAYDEN REEDRB SERET
★3—6714%-20—
34
CARSON SMITHRB SERET
★2—5910%-33—
29
BRIGGS BARTOSHRB SORET
★3—567%+23—
33
JAKE RENDINARB SERET
★2—547%-40—
7
GODSPOWER NWAWUIHERB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%+37—
5
JAREL DICKSONRB SERET
★2—00%+14—
19
SABASTIAN SHANNONRB SERET
UNR—00%——
25
STRATTON FULLERRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
16
TREY TREMBARB SORET
UNR—00%——
20
TIM KLOSKARB JURET
★2—00%——
36
DEMANI STEWARTRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
37
IAN CLINERB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
39
HARRISON ORRRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
40
TUCKER JAMESRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
42
JADEN PYDYNRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
38
NOLAN JOHNSONRB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE44TAL16PERF44RET87ONE OWNERn=2 · 6 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
44
PARKER POLOSKEYTE SERET
UNR—10080%-40—
15
NOAH SHORTWR SERET
★2—9039%+30—
27
SAMARI HOWARDWR SERET
UNR—7118%+3—
84
BRADY ANDERSONWR JURET
★3—6571%+36—
80
BRIAN DYERTE SERET
UNR—559%——
86
TEX BRANNANTE JURET
UNR—549%——
11
TOBI OLAWOLEWR SERET
★3—4523%-3—
2
ADEN SELFWR JURET
UNR—312%——
85
NOAH PRIORTE JURET
UNR—241%——
23
LLOYD BENSON IIIWR SERET
UNR—181%——
4
LIAM FORTNERWR SERET
★2—184%-12—
18
BRADY MOTTWR SERET
UNR—161%——
89
KAVON POINTERWR SERET
UNR—112%——
87
JAMES ROTHSTEINTE JURET
★3—91%——
26
DAVID CLERKWR SERET
UNR—90%——
83
KURT THOMPSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
14
CHACE KNOXWR JURET
UNR—00%——
22
BJ ALLEYNEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
32
STROMAN BRIDGESWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
45
ADAM BUFFINGTONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
KOFI EDUFULWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
BRIAN RAY IIIWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
88
JAKIEL KENDRICKSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
90
JOSH GREERTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
91
CHARLIE DALYTE SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
92
ABRAM EDWARDSTE FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
▸OL55TAL13PERF55RET100n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL18TAL9PERF18RET69n=8 · 7 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸LB32TAL12PERF32RET99n=5 · 11 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸DB48TAL38PERF48RET99n=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SAM HAYWARDHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MAX PHENICIEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JADEN PYDYNHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MATTHEW PERKINSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ZACHARY GREENHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
SETH SHIGGHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JOE CALLERAMEHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TOMMY GHISLANDIHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ZAK STOILOVHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
BLAKE OWENHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ELO MODOZIEGEORGIADEUNR★4
DONAVON PLATTVIRGINIADBUNR★3
KANYE UDOHARIZONA STATERB★3★3
LUCAS SCOTTELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
CONNOR FINUCANEELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
BILL KATSIGIANNISELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
MAX DIDOMENICOELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
CHANCE KEITHELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
DAVID CROSSANELIGIBILITY UPTEUNR—
DRE MILLERELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES69%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS56%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#130NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 50 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8058COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
011 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST30% BACK30th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG30% BACK30th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST99%99th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE