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HOME›TEAMS›AUBURN›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
SEC|BRYAN HARSIN|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
AUBURN42 FPISEC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
88FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
9%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#219 BC / 15
BC RATIO
44%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
5-7ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-4.8
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE78
PERFORMANCE78
TALENT59
CONTINUITY9
DEFENSE78
PERFORMANCE78
TALENT75
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
78MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HMERCER—W 42-16————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 10HSAN JOSÉ STATE—W 24-16253737+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17HPENN STATE#7L 12-41909595-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HMISSOURI—W 17-14786767-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1HLSU#16L 17-21959090-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8AGEORGIA#1L 10-4299100100-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15AOLE MISS—L 34-48849090-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29HARKANSAS—L 27-41827878-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5AMISSISSIPPI STATE#20L 33-39808686-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HTEXAS A&M—W 13-10987272-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HWESTERN KENTUCKY—W 41-17425050+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26AALABAMA#5L 27-491009898-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB67TAL44PERF67RET18ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
ROBBY ASHFORDQB SENO SNAPS
★4★38081%-32FELL
2
TJ FINLEYQB JURET
★3★35118%-21HELD
11
HOLDEN GERINERQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★391%—FELL
5
ZACH CALZADAQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
13
TREY LINDSEYQB SERET
UNR—00%——
17
SAWYER PATEQB SORET
★3—00%——
▾RB76TAL87PERF76RET96ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
TANK BIGSBYRB JURET
★4—9560%+5—
27
JARQUEZ HUNTERRB SERET
★3—8436%+33—
6
DAMARI ALSTONRB SENO SNAPS
★4★3394%+18FELL
44
SEAN JACKSONRB JURET
UNR—00%+41—
15
JORDON INGRAMRB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
35
JUSTIN JONESRB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
36
LUKE REEBALSRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE46TAL59PERF47RET67ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
JOHN SAMUEL SHENKERTE SERET
★3—9452%-18—
86
LUKE DEALTE SERET
★3—7930%-31—
5
KOY MOOREWR SENO SNAPS
★4★37824%+8FELL
11
SHEDRICK JACKSONWR SERET
★3—7824%-16—
9
JA'VARRIUS JOHNSONWR SERET
★4★37723%+23FELL
4
CAMDEN BROWNWR SENO SNAPS
★3★36312%-31HELD
7
TYLER FROMMTE SERET
★4★35210%+29FELL
42
TATE JOHNSONTE SERET
★3—515%——
1
MALCOLM JOHNSON JR.WR SERET
★4★3495%—FELL
1
OMARI KELLYWR SENO SNAPS
★4★3464%—FELL
9
JAY FAIRWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3413%—HELD
87
BRANDON FRAZIERTE SERET
★4—363%——
9
DAZALIN WORSHAMWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3362%—HELD
0
LANDEN KINGTE SERET
★3★3333%—HELD
80
ZE'VIAN CAPERSWR SORET
★4★4322%—HELD
2
TAR'VARISH DAWSONWR SENO SNAPS
★4★4312%—HELD
88
MICAH RILEYTE JUNO SNAPS
★4★3242%—FELL
30
TOMMY NESMITHWR SERET
UNR—00%——
6
JJ EVANSWR SERET
★4—00%——
28
JACKSON BILLINGSWR SORET
★2—00%——
28
GRANT HIDALGOTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
32
TRENT MASONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
28
CAMDEN ETHEREDGETE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
WHIT JOHNSONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
82
JAKE KRUSEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
COLBY STAFFORDWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
GREG MCCONICO JR.WR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL58PERF50RET0n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL53TAL58PERF53RET61n=10 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸LB38TAL86PERF38RET99n=4 · 10 METRICS · 27 OBS
▸DB62TAL77PERF62RET53n=8 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ROBERT WOODYARD JR.HS RECRUITLB★4UNR
JD RHYMHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
AUSTIN AUSBERRYHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
HOLDEN GERINERHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
TRE DONALDSONHS RECRUITS★4UNR
E.J. HARRISHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
DAMARI ALSTONHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
OMARI KELLYHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
MICAH RILEYHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
CAMDEN BROWNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ROMELLO HEIGHTUSCLB★4★4
SHAUN SHIVERSINDIANARB★4UNR
KOBE HUDSONUCFWR★4UNR
JJ PEGUESOLE MISSDT★4UNR
LADARIUS TENNISONOLE MISSDB★4★3
DRE BUTLERLIBERTYDLUNR★4
RO TORRENCEARIZONA STATEDB★3UNR
MALCOLM ASKEWELIGIBILITY UPDB★4—
CAYLIN NEWTONELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
DEVIN GUICEELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#21NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
9OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8939COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST56% BACK56th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG56% BACK56th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR18%18th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST53%53th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE