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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SEC|HUGH FREEZE|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
AUBURN24 FPISEC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
91FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
56%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#818 BC / 26
BC RATIO
57%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-2.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.1
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE71
PERFORMANCE71
TALENT88
CONTINUITY56
DEFENSE96
PERFORMANCE96
TALENT82
CONTINUITY57
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
66MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29ABAYLOR—W 38-24754848+31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HBALL STATE—W 42-31733+76BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 31-15261616+63BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AOKLAHOMA#13L 17-24919090-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ATEXAS A&M#8L 10-16959494-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HGEORGIA#6L 10-201009696-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HMISSOURI—L 17-23858585-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AARKANSAS—W 33-24846161+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HKENTUCKY—L 3-10815151+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AVANDERBILT#15L 38-45619393-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HMERCER—W 62-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
14NOV 29HALABAMA#9L 20-27998686-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB57TAL67PERF57RET0ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
JACKSON ARNOLDQB SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★5★37859%-4FELL
14
ASHTON DANIELSQB SEPORTAL · STANFORD
★3★37033%-10HELD
2
DEUCE KNIGHTQB FRTRUE FR
★5★4477%+27FELL
14
WILL MYERSQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
16
JOHN COLVINQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB55TAL85PERF55RET90ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
23
JEREMIAH COBBRB SERET
★4—9775%+11—
6
DAMARI ALSTONRB SERET
★4★35711%-6FELL
29
OMAR MABSON IIRB SONO SNAPS
★3—529%+30—
35
JUSTIN JONESRB SERET
★2—404%+31—
11
DURELL ROBINSONRB SEPORTAL · UCONN
★3★3181%+34HELD
25
COLE GAMBLERB SORET
★3—00%——
22
ALVIN HENDERSONRB SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
26
CHRISTIAN BURNETTERB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE41TAL89PERF47RET60ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
CAM COLEMANWR JURET
★5★59730%-3HELD
2
ERIC SINGLETON JR.WR SEPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
★3★49327%+25ROSE
8
PRESTON HOWARDTE SEPORTAL · MARYLAND
★3★38646%-22HELD
87
BRANDON FRAZIERTE SERET
★4—8544%-21—
11
MALCOLM SIMMONSWR JURET
★4★48017%+22HELD
3
PERRY THOMPSONWR JURET
★4★47716%-22HELD
11
HORATIO FIELDSWR SEPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
★3★4585%-12ROSE
42
TATE JOHNSONTE SERET
★3—456%——
6
BRYCE CAINWR SORET
★4—453%——
84
RYAN GHEATE SONO SNAPS
★3—333%——
18
SAM TURNERWR SONO SNAPS
★4★3281%—FELL
28
CAMDEN ETHEREDGETE JURET
UNR—121%——
12
CAM KINGWR JURET
UNR★3110%—EMERGED
40
HUNTER OUSLEYTE SORET
UNR—70%——
10
DUKE SMITHWR FRTRUE FR
★4—00%——
48
ELI MORTONTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
81
ERICK SMITHWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
82
N'NONYE MARCUSWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
WILL UPTONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
13
HOLLIS DAVIDSON IIITE FRTRUE FR
★4★300%—FELL
▸OL55TAL89PERF55RET56n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL65TAL76PERF65RET55n=12 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸LB77TAL82PERF77RET43n=6 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB61TAL89PERF61RET69n=12 · 8 METRICS · 65 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEUCE KNIGHTHS RECRUITQB★5UNR
JARED SMITHHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
MALIK AUTRYHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
ANQUON FEGANSHS RECRUITS★4UNR
ERIC WINTERSHS RECRUITS★4UNR
DUKE SMITHHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
BLAKE WOODBYHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
J.J. FAULKHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
JOURDIN CRAWFORDHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
ELIJAH MELENDEZHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ERIC SINGLETON JR.GEORGIA TECHWR★3★4
HORATIO FIELDSWAKE FORESTWR★3★4
XAVIER CHAPLINVIRGINIA TECHOT★3★4
MASON MURPHYUSCOT★4★4
JACKSON ARNOLDOKLAHOMAQB★5★4
RAION STRADERMIAMI (OH)CBUNR★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT44 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CALEB WOODENARKANSASDB★3★3
KEIONTE SCOTTMIAMIDBUNR★3
ANTONIO KITEOLE MISSCB★4★3
CAMDEN BROWNGEORGIA SOUTHERNWR★3★3
MICAH RILEYTEXAS A&MTE★4★3
JC HARTUTAHCB★3★3
HANK BROWNIOWAQB★3★3
SAM JACKSON VOKLAHOMA STATEWR★4★3
EJ HARRISMIDDLE TENNESSEEOL★4UNR
GAGE KEYSKANSASDL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES78%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS58%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#8NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
18OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9157COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2127 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST19% BACK19th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG19% BACK19th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR56%56th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST69%69th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE