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● LIVE|2018 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|MIKE NEU|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
BALL STATE114 FPIMAC · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
21FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1190 BC / 17
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
4-8ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-8.3
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
36MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HCENTRAL CONNECTICUT—W 42-6————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 8ANOTRE DAME#5L 16-24939191-82BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15AINDIANA—L 10-38594747-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22HWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 20-28191414-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29HKENT STATE—W 52-241844+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—L 16-24373232-23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13ACENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 24-233466+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20HEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 20-42143434-25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AOHIO—L 14-52155959-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10OCT 31ATOLEDO—L 13-45424949-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 13HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 42-41392020-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 20AMIAMI (OH)—L 21-42353939-30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET45NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
DREW PLITTQB SERET
★3—00%——
6
RILEY NEALQB SERET
UNR—00%——
4
JOHN PADDOCKQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
17
HANK HUGHESQB JURET
★2—00%——
10
ELLIOT CHARLEBOISQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
MARKICE HURT JR.RB SORET
★2—00%——
34
JAMES GILBERTRB SERET
UNR—00%——
8
CODY RUDYFB SERET
UNR—00%——
2
CALEB HUNTLEYRB SERET
★3—00%——
24
WILL JONESRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
30
TYE EVANSRB SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
20
WALTER FLETCHERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
39
RASHAAD POINDEXTERRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
22
MARKICE HURT JR.RB —RET
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
HASSAN LITTLESWR SERET
★2—00%——
13
JORDAN WILLIAMSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
KYLE SCHRANKTE SERET
UNR—00%——
86
RILEY MILLERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
11
JUSTIN HALLWR SERET
★3—00%——
1
ANTWAN DAVISWR SERET
UNR—00%——
21
KEYAN WILLIAMSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
11
COREY LACANARIAWR SERET
UNR—00%——
19
DEVIN REECEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
4
MALIK DUNNERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
NOLAN GIVANTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
83
LUKE ENDSLEYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
4
TREVOR HOHLTWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
6
YO'HEINZ TYLERWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
88
DYLAN KOCHTE SERET
★2—00%——
82
KEIDREN DAVISTE SORET
★2—00%——
15
KHALIL NEWTONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
13
BRENNAN GILLISWR SERET
UNR—00%——
80
CHRIS CROTHERSTE JURET
UNR—00%——
10
DEAN TATEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
48
ISAIAH DUNNUCKTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
47
JORDAN MCCOYWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
18
TY KIRTZWR —RET
★2—00%——
41
BRYSON HAFTTE —RET
UNR—00%——
80
JUSTIN GIBBSWR —RET
★3—00%——
37
RJ BENKELMANWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LUKE MARTINHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
KYRON MIMSHS RECRUITDT★3UNR
YO'HEINZ TYLERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAYLEN TURNERHS RECRUITOC★3UNR
JOHN PADDOCKHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
WES OBERMEIERHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
TYE EVANSHS RECRUITRB★2UNR
JACK SAPEHS RECRUITWDE★2UNR
CALEB MURRAYHS RECRUITOT★2UNR
TYLER POTTSHS RECRUITCB★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT15 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
VERENZO HOLMESELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
JACK MILASNOT LISTEDQBUNR—
DAVID MOORENOT LISTEDCB★3—
VINNIE PALAZETINOT LISTEDOLUNR—
ANTHONY WINBUSHNOT LISTEDDEUNR—
JORDAN HOGUENOT LISTEDWRUNR—
DAMON SINGLETONNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
KEVIN WILLISNOT LISTEDDTUNR—
AKEEM HUTCHINSONNOT LISTEDDEUNR—
ARMANI MCNULTYNOT LISTEDSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#119NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.7838COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
26TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
5
9
7
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +9 W
IMPROVED12 OF 26
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST78% BACK78th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG78% BACK78th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR45%45th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE