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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|MIKE NEU|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
BALL STATE115 FPIMAC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
13FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
16%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#970 BC / 17
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
5-7ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-3.7
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE8
PERFORMANCE8
TALENT44
CONTINUITY16
DEFENSE37
PERFORMANCE37
TALENT36
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
29MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1ATENNESSEE#6L 10-59879797-84BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 30-373188+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17HMURRAY STATE—W 31-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 24AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 23-34223333-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 44-382166+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8ACENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 17-16181515-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15HUCONN—W 25-2191515-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22HEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 16-20203131-18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AKENT STATE—W 27-20191818-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8ATOLEDO—L 21-28433838-25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HOHIO—L 18-32153535-22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AMIAMI (OH)—L 17-18202121-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB60TAL78PERF60RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 7 METRICS · 7 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
JOHN PADDOCKQB SERET
★3★396100%-2HELD
1
KIAEL KELLYQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
13
MARK NONDORFQB JURET
★3—00%——
4
COLIN BLAZEKQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
AIDAN LEFFLERQB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▾RB65TAL95PERF65RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
33
CARSON STEELERB JURET
UNR★49973%+6EMERGED
24
WILL JONESRB SERET
UNR—6013%-23—
5
RICO BARFIELDRB SORET
★3★3323%-23HELD
20
DONNY MARCUSRB JURET
★3—171%-48—
34
BRAYDEN EVANSRB JURET
★3—00%——
22
KYRIN PERRYRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
37
SHOKA GRIFFIN IIRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
38
KYONDRE WINFORDRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE42TAL55PERF42RET47ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
87
BRADY HUNTTE SENO SNAPS
★2★310050%+8ROSE
12
JAYSHON JACKSONWR SERET
★3★39840%+10HELD
6
YO'HEINZ TYLERWR SERET
★3—9534%-5—
9
TANNER KOZIOLTE SENO SNAPS
★2★48726%+21ROSE
81
RYAN LEZONTE SORET
★2—7015%——
11
AMIR ABDUR-RAHMANWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—7015%-16—
19
NICK PRESLEYWR SENO SNAPS
★2—577%-54—
87
CASEY COLLTE SERET
UNR—569%——
10
DEAN TATEWR SORET
UNR—342%——
8
NICK MUNSONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—130%——
10
DERIN MCCULLEYWR SERET
★3—100%——
82
DAHYA PATELWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—70%——
5
QIAN MAGWOODWR SERET
★3—00%——
25
AUSTIN HILLWR SERET
★2★200%—HELD
83
CAM GILLENTINEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
17
JUSTIN CAMPBELLWR JURET
★3—00%——
86
JUSTIN MORRISTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
11
KADEN COBBWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
7
CAM PICKETTWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
45
MAX SULLIVANTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
44
MAXIMUS WEBSTERTE SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
17
DWAYNE MOOREHEADWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
87
JACKSON CONSTANTINETE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
42
GAVIN SMITHSON-BURCIAGATE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
35
BRODY GLENNWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL60TAL28PERF60RET14n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL23TAL25PERF23RET82n=9 · 7 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸LB39TAL50PERF39RET69n=5 · 11 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸DB45TAL39PERF45RET75n=8 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KADEN COBBHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DAKARI FRAZIERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CAM PICKETTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TARAN TYOHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JORDAN COLEMANHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
CADEN JOHNSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CHRISTOPHER HOODHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
MAX SULLIVANHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
AJ VINATIERIHS RECRUITK★3UNR
ASHTON CARROLLHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT24 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JALEN MCGAUGHYCENTRAL MICHIGANWR★3★3
KARATE BRENSONTENNESSEE STATEWR★3★3
BRYCE COSBYELIGIBILITY UPS★2—
HASSAN LITTLESELIGIBILITY UPWR★2—
JACOB LEWISELIGIBILITY UPPKUNR—
DYLAN KOCHELIGIBILITY UPTE★2—
CHRISTIAN ALBRIGHTELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
BRETT ANDERSON IIELIGIBILITY UPS★2—
JUSTIN HALLELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
DREW PLITTELIGIBILITY UPQB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#97NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8095COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST46% BACK46th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG46% BACK46th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR14%14th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST75%75th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE