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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|MIKE NEU|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
BALL STATE111 FPIMAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
20FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
58%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
75%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1080 BC / 19
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
4-8ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-6.2
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE11
PERFORMANCE11
TALENT44
CONTINUITY58
DEFENSE39
PERFORMANCE39
TALENT25
CONTINUITY75
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
39MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2AKENTUCKY—L 14-44788484-73BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9AGEORGIA#4L 3-45999999-88BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HINDIANA STATE—W 45-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 3-40233939-28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 24-421999+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7AEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 10-24161818-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HTOLEDO—L 6-13376161-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 24-17955+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ABOWLING GREEN—L 21-24182929-18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 20-17133030-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HKENT STATE—W 34-31500+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HMIAMI (OH)—L 15-17215656-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB56TAL44PERF56RET43ROTATIONn=3 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
KIAEL KELLYQB SERET
★3★36843%-41HELD
3
LAYNE HATCHERQB SEPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
★3★36131%+13HELD
3
KADIN SEMONZAQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★35926%0HELD
4
COLIN BLAZEKQB SORET
UNR—00%——
15
AIDAN LEFFLERQB JURET
★2—00%——
▾RB50TAL70PERF50RET17ONE OWNERn=3 · 5 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
MARQUEZ COOPERRB SEPORTAL · KENT STATE
★3★39565%+9HELD
5
RICO BARFIELDRB SORET
★3★36014%-37HELD
32
CHARLIE SPEGALRB SEPORTAL · INDIANA
★2★2426%+8HELD
34
BRAYDEN EVANSRB JURET
★3—00%——
24
CHRISTIAN DAVISRB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
4
TJ HORTONRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
22
NATHANIEL ZACHERYRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE28TAL49PERF28RET36ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
TANNER KOZIOLTE SERET
★2★49655%-4ROSE
14
AHMAD EDWARDSWR SENO SNAPS
★3—8633%-7—
5
QIAN MAGWOODWR SERET
★3—7825%-1—
44
MAXIMUS WEBSTERTE SORET
★2—7326%-44—
2
MALCOLM GILLIEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★37019%-58EMERGED
86
CHRISTIAN ABNEYTE SENO SNAPS
★3★36416%—HELD
19
NICK PRESLEYWR SERET
★2—6213%-62—
10
TY ROBINSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3516%+17HELD
8
NICK MUNSONWR JURET
UNR—403%——
86
JUSTIN MORRISTE SORET
★3—221%——
45
MAX SULLIVANTE SORET
★3—211%——
82
DAHYA PATELWR JURET
UNR—00%——
48
LUKE JONESWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
87
BRADY HUNTTE SERET
★2★300%+8ROSE
39
ZAVIER SIMPSONWR SENO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
36
JEFFREY SIMMONSTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
7
CAM PICKETTWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
17
DWAYNE MOOREHEADWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
11
ISAIAH THACKERWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
10
RJ MUKESWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
35
BRODY GLENNWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
86
PRESTON ROSSTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
81
LEO COLLINSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
ELI HOHLTWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
42
COLE MUNCHELTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL41TAL40PERF41RET81n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL31TAL22PERF31RET64n=8 · 7 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸LB53TAL17PERF53RET99n=5 · 11 METRICS · 29 OBS
▸DB55TAL32PERF55RET52n=8 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHRISTIAN DAVISHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
PRESTON ROSSHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
KADIN SEMONZAHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
R.J. MUKES IIIHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TJ HORTONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ELIJAH DAVISHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TRISTAN COOKHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ISAIAH THACKERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DARIN CONLEYHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DEREK FIELDSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TY ROBINSONCOLORADOWRUNR★3
DD SNYDERILLINOISS★3★3
LUKE WIGINTONINDIANAOT★3★3
MARQUEZ COOPERKENT STATERB★3★3
LAYNE HATCHERTEXAS STATEQB★3★3
CHARLIE SPEGALINDIANARB★2★2
TUCKER DUNNCOLGATELSUNR★2
ALJAREEK MALRYVMISUNRUNR
JONATHAN MUCCIOLOSACRED HEARTIOLUNRUNR
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT25 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOHN PADDOCKILLINOISQB★3★3
CARSON STEELEUCLARBUNR★4
RYAN LEZONBUTLERTE★2UNR
JUSTEN RAMSEYINDIANA STATEDL★2★3
JAQUAN AMOSELIGIBILITY UPS★2—
AMECHI UZODINMA IIELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
MALCOLM LEEELIGIBILITY UPS★2—
JAYSHON JACKSONELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
YO'HEINZ TYLERELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
CASEY COLLELIGIBILITY UPTEUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES86%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS67%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#108NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8206COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1010 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST14% BACK14th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG14% BACK14th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR81%81th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR43%43th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST52%52th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE