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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|SCOT LOEFFLER|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
BOWLING GREEN123 FPIMAC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
20FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-9IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1030 BC / 23
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
4-8ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-9.3
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
39MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2ATENNESSEE—L 6-38879393-78BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HSOUTH ALABAMA—L 19-22272525-10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 18HMURRAY STATE—W 27-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 25AMINNESOTA—W 14-10698787-72BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2AKENT STATE—L 20-27182929-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9HAKRON—L 20-351422+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 16ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—L 26-34182626-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23HEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 24-55172323-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30ABUFFALO—W 56-44102121-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10HTOLEDO—L 17-49385757-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AMIAMI (OH)—L 7-34204444-29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26HOHIO—W 21-10151717-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET98NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
TUCKER MELTONQB FRRET
★3—00%——
3
MATT MCDONALDQB SERET
★3—00%——
6
DREW GUNTHERQB JUPORTAL · SYRACUSE
UNR—00%——
7
RILEY KELLERQB FRRET
★3—00%——
11
KODY SPARKSQB FRRET
★2—00%——
16
LABRONZ DAVISQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET26NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
TA'RON KEITHRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
28
JAISON PATTERSONRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
5
NICK MOSLEYRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
6
JAMAL JOHNSONRB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
8
TERION STEWARTRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
TREVON RAYMORERB JURET
★2—00%——
30
PASEAN WIMBERLYRB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
JHAYLIN EMBRYWR JURET
★2—00%——
10
LEVI GAZAREKTE SERET
★3—00%——
9
GRIFFIN LITTLETE JURET
★3—00%——
89
ANDREW BENCHTE SERET
★2★300%—ROSE
88
CHRISTIAN SIMSTE SERET
★2—00%——
81
BRYCE BOYERTE SORET
★2—00%——
5
TYRONE BRODENWR SERET
★3★400%—ROSE
85
CAVON CROOMWR SERET
UNR—00%——
87
JAEDYN MCKINSTRYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
18
AUSTIN OSBORNEWR SENO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
84
TOMMY GUAJARDOTE FRPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★3—00%——
2
JAVONTE KINSEYTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
14
JAKE ROGERSWR JURET
★2—00%——
13
NICK NIEHOFFWR JURET
UNR—00%——
11
JAYLEN SMITHWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
7
TAE'SHAUN JOHNSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
23
TY COOKWR SORET
UNR—00%——
27
NIC KILBRIDETE JURET
UNR—00%——
80
COLE LAKATOSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
ZACH RUSSELLTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
45
ROCCO HICKSTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
87
PRINCETON HOSKINSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TAE'SHAUN JOHNSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAYLEN SMITHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
WILLIE JONESHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ALEX PADGETTHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
DIEGO NERIHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CHASE WHATTONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAISON PATTERSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CASHIUS HOWELLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
NICK MOSLEYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ROCCO HICKSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRYCE BRANDWEST VIRGINIAEDGE★3★3
DAVON FERGUSONKANSASSUNR★3
ALI SAADMINNESOTADL★3★3
TOMMY GUAJARDOMICHIGAN STATETE★3UNR
DREW GUNTHERSYRACUSEPROUNRUNR
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT13 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JERRY ROBERTS JR.ARIZONALB★2UNR
JULIAN ORTEGA-JONESTEXAS STATEWR★2★2
CALEB BIGGERSBOISE STATECB★2★2
ANDREW CLAIRNORTHWESTERNRB★3★3
ROLAND WALDEREASTERN KENTUCKYDL★3★3
KHOLBE COLEMANSOUTHERN ILLINOISLB★2★2
RODELL RAHMAANTENNESSEE STATELBUNRUNR
NOAH MASSEYELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
ISAIAH JOHNSON-MACKELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
BRYSON DENLEYELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#103NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8119COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
514 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGANY — MERGEDQUARTERBACKANY — MERGED
25TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
1
4
8
7
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-4 TO +6 W
IMPROVED12 OF 25
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THIS PROFILE WAS TOO RARE TO STAND ALONE AND A BROADER CELL IS SHOWN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST58% BACK58th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG58% BACK58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE