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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|SCOT LOEFFLER|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
BOWLING GREEN78 FPIMAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
17FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-2IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1000 BC / 21
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.5
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE45
PERFORMANCE45
TALENT55
CONTINUITY80
DEFENSE50
PERFORMANCE50
TALENT38
CONTINUITY71
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
35MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HFORDHAM—W 41-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7APENN STATE#5L 27-34939797-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ATEXAS A&M—L 20-26969191-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HOLD DOMINION—L 27-3072929+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AAKRON—W 27-202688+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—L 7-17103838+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HKENT STATE—W 27-6900+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26ATOLEDO—W 41-26374141+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 5ACENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 23-13151111+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 12HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 31-13312222+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ABALL STATE—W 38-131466+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HMIAMI (OH)—L 12-28204949-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26HARKANSAS STATE—L 31-38382323+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB23TAL83PERF24RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
CONNOR BAZELAKQB SERET
★4★49296%+11HELD
15
LUCIAN ANDERSON IIIQB JURET
UNR★3284%—EMERGED
8
BARON MAYQB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
11
CAMDEN ORTHQB SERET
UNR—00%-13—
14
JONNY SORENSENQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB41TAL39PERF41RET99ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
JAISON PATTERSONRB SERET
★3—8531%-38—
6
JAMAL JOHNSONRB SERET
★2—8431%+22—
8
TERION STEWARTRB SERET
★3★38128%+24HELD
7
MAR'KEL PORTERRB SONO SNAPS
★3★3121%—HELD
23
CHRIS EDMONDSRB SORET
UNR—50%——
30
PASEAN WIMBERLYRB SERET
UNR—00%-17—
24
BRYCE DEFALCORB SORET
UNR—00%——
23
JADEN COPENINGRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
26
CAMERON PETTAWAYRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
22
NAKAI AMACHREERB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE56TAL40PERF56RET53ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 35 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
HAROLD FANNIN JR.TE JURET
UNR—9854%+56—
1
MALCOLM JOHNSON JR.WR SEPORTAL · AUBURN
★4★39542%-25FELL
10
LEVI GAZAREKTE SERET
★3—7724%-37—
3
RAHKEEM SMITHWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★37724%+5EMERGED
11
FINN HOGANWR SERET
UNR★27522%-15EMERGED
81
ELIJAH BOYDTE JUPORTAL · UTEP
★2★36212%—ROSE
0
JUSTIN PEGUESWR SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH
UNR—599%-63—
89
BLANE CLEAVERTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—506%——
5
JAYLON TILLMANWR SERET
★2★2505%—HELD
18
WINN SHARPWR SONO SNAPS
★3—444%——
3
TREY JOHNSONWR SERET
★3—383%——
89
JACOB HARRISTE JURET
UNR★3373%—EMERGED
87
JARED MERKWR SORET
UNR—211%——
86
IAN DRUMMONDTE SERET
UNR—110%——
9
ISAAC HILLTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
2
RJ GARCIA IIWR SEPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
★3★300%-14HELD
84
DOM GRGURICWR JURET
UNR—00%——
19
SHAWN THIGPENWR FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
13
CYNCEIR MCNEALWR SORET
UNR—00%——
15
CALEB GOODLOEWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
82
ELI JACON-DUFFYTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
73
CADEN CAMPBELLTE SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
80
OCEAN BRABBSTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
PIERCE ST GEMEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL38TAL53PERF38RET95n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL49TAL43PERF49RET99n=9 · 7 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸LB45TAL32PERF45RET91n=8 · 11 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸DB52TAL39PERF52RET42n=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MARTREECE DILLARDHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
NAKAI AMACHREEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CALEB GOODLOEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ELIAS OWENSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MAR'KEL PORTERHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DORIAN PRINGLEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
D'KYAH BANKSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DILLON ROBINSONHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
WINN SHARPHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TJ NELSONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DARIUS MCCLENDONFLORIDA ATLANTICSUNR★3
MALCOLM JOHNSON JR.AUBURNWR★4★3
EDWARD RHAMBONORTHERN ARIZONACBUNR★3
JACOREY BENJAMINTEXAS SOUTHERNCB★3★3
DONOVAN STEPHENSOKLAHOMA STATELBUNR★3
NICK REIMERMERRIMACKOTUNR★3
JUSTIN EKLUNDSAN JOSÉ STATELB★3★3
RJ GARCIA IIKANSAS STATEWR★3★3
ELIJAH BOYDUTEPTE★2★3
CJ BROWNNORTHERN ILLINOISSUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JALEN HUSKEYMARYLANDDB★3★3
CASHIUS HOWELLTEXAS A&MDE★3★4
ABDUL-FATAI IBRAHIMLOUISIANA TECHWRUNRUNR
DESHAWN JONES JR.STONY BROOKCB★3UNR
TA'RON KEITHSOUTH FLORIDARB★3★3
ANDREW BENCHSOUTH ALABAMATE★2★3
SHAMOUN DUNCAN-NIUSULUSTONY BROOKSUNRUNR
DAVIAN MAYOCENTRAL ARKANSASLB★3★3
KITIONE TAUNEVADADLUNRUNR
DIEGO NERIWESTERN ILLINOISLB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES21%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS67%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#100NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8195COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1315 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST72% BACK72th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG72% BACK72th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST42%42th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE