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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
ACC|JUSTIN WILCOX|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
CALIFORNIA81 FPIACC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
74FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
39%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
39%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+2IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#692 BC / 15
BC RATIO
19%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-1.7
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE42
PERFORMANCE42
TALENT66
CONTINUITY39
DEFENSE49
PERFORMANCE49
TALENT73
CONTINUITY39
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
49MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30AOREGON STATE—W 34-155777+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HTEXAS SOUTHERN—W 35-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13HMINNESOTA—W 27-14714949-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20ASAN DIEGO STATE—L 0-34386969-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ABOSTON COLLEGE—W 28-24502929+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HDUKE—L 21-45586868-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 17HNORTH CAROLINA—W 21-18783333+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 24AVIRGINIA TECH—L 34-42722323+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HVIRGINIA#16L 21-31557878-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8ALOUISVILLE—W 29-26648282-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ASTANFORD—L 10-31671818+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HSMU—W 38-35828484-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 24AHAWAI'I—L 31-35135050-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB63TAL98PERF63RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
JARON-KEAWE SAGAPOLUTELEQB SOPORTAL · OREGON
★4★49998%+17HELD
13
DEVIN BROWNQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★4232%-16HELD
2
EJ CAMINONGQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
20
BELAY BRUMMELQB SORET
UNR—00%——
17
ALONZO ESPARZAQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
14
DOMINIC INGRASSIAQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB51TAL88PERF51RET0ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
KENDRICK RAPHAELRB SEPORTAL · NC STATE
★3★410078%-26ROSE
11
LJ JOHNSON JR.RB SEPORTAL · SMU
★4★36212%+19FELL
10
BRANDON HIGH JR.RB JUPORTAL · UTSA
★3★3527%+24HELD
25
ANTHONY LEAGUERB FRTRUE FR
★3—343%-56—
23
JAYDEN PARKERRB SORET
UNR—00%——
33
DEAN-TAYLOR CHAPMANRB JURET
UNR—00%——
21
CARSON PERRY-SMITHRB SORET
UNR—00%——
28
JAMAAL WILEYRB FRRET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE59TAL52PERF58RET39ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
JACOB DE JESUSWR SEPORTAL · UNLV
UNR★39930%+27EMERGED
7
TROND GRIZZELLWR SERET
UNR—9930%+12—
85
MASON MINITE JUPORTAL · IDAHO
★2★39357%+12ROSE
4
JORDAN KINGWR SERET
UNR—7311%-4—
15
MARK HAMPERWR JUPORTAL · WISCONSIN
★3★3699%-9HELD
86
JEFFREY JOHNSONTE SERET
★3—6722%-38—
5
QUARON ADAMSWR SEPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA
★2★3647%+30ROSE
81
LANDON MORRISTE SEPORTAL · TEMPLE
★3★36216%+41HELD
10
JAYDEN DIXON-VEALWR SEPORTAL · PURDUE
★3★3554%-42HELD
16
JAIVEN PLUMMERWR SERET
★3★3513%—HELD
82
COLE BOSCIAWR SERET
★2—513%——
6
KYION GRAYESWR JURET
★4★3503%-62FELL
44
JOHN TOFI JR.TE FRTRUE FR
★3—221%——
19
TREVOR ROGERSWR SORET
★4—180%——
26
ISAAC TORRESWR SERET
UNR—140%——
90
JACK OLYPHANTTE SORET
★2—91%——
89
BEN MARSHALLTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
8
DAZMIN JAMESWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%——
83
MYLES REBERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
88
MEYER SWINNEYWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
80
JAKE HOUSEWORTHTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL46TAL64PERF46RET50n=8 · 3 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸DL30TAL76PERF30RET63n=10 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸LB38TAL76PERF38RET36n=6 · 11 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸DB52TAL70PERF52RET27n=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAE'ON YOUNGHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
JUSTIN HASENHUETLHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
ANTHONY LEAGUEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MEYER SWINNEYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
AIDEN MANUTAIHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TRE' HARRISONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JACOB HOUSEWORTHHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
BEN HOWARDHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
IKE OKAFORHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MICHAEL KLISIEWICZHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JARON-KEAWE SAGAPOLUTELEOREGONQB★4★4
MARK HAMPERWISCONSINWR★3★3
HEZEKIAH MASSESFLORIDA INTERNATIONALCB★2★3
TJ BUSH JR.LIBERTYEDGE★3★3
KENDRICK RAPHAELNC STATERB★3★3
HARRISON TAGGARTBYULB★4★3
BRENT AUSTINSOUTH FLORIDACBUNR★3
LEON BELLMISSISSIPPI STATEOTUNR★3
JORDAN SPASOJEVIC-MOKOCHARLOTTEIOLUNR★3
CHRIS VICTORCHATTANOOGAEDGEUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT41 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
FERNANDO MENDOZAINDIANAQB★2★4
DAVID REESESYRACUSEDLUNR★3
JACK ENDRIESTEXASTE★3★4
MATTHEW WYKOFFHOUSTONOL★3★3
NYZIAH HUNTERNEBRASKAWR★4★4
JONATHAN BRADYINDIANAWR★2★3
MIKEY MATTHEWSUCLAWR★4★3
HUNTER BARTHSTANFORDLB★3★3
JAYDN OTTOKLAHOMARB★4★4
RYAN YAITESTCUS★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES96%11 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS88%14 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#69NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8650COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3634 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST24% BACK24th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG24% BACK24th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR50%50th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST27%27th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE