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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|BIFF POGGI|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
CHARLOTTE124 FPIAAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
43FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
31%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
22%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1290 BC / 15
BC RATIO
15%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-11.1
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE8
PERFORMANCE8
TALENT43
CONTINUITY31
DEFENSE53
PERFORMANCE53
TALENT53
CONTINUITY22
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
42MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HSOUTH CAROLINA STATE—W 24-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9AMARYLAND—L 20-38698585-82BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HGEORGIA STATE—L 25-41373434-31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23AFLORIDA—L 7-22907070-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30ASMU#22L 16-34768383-80BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HNAVY—L 0-1411515-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AEAST CAROLINA—W 10-7451717-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 27HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—L 16-38492525-22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ATULSA—W 33-26401515-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HMEMPHIS—L 38-44545959-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HRICE—L 7-28282323-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25ASOUTH FLORIDA—L 14-48533636-33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB46TAL88PERF46RET59ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
TREXLER IVEYQB JURET
UNR—7359%-31—
4
JALON JONESQB SENO SNAPS
★4—6636%+4—
6
DOM SHOFFNERQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—213%——
7
STEVEN JOHNSONQB FRRET
UNR—172%——
8
MICAH BOWENSQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
16
CARSON BLACKQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB36TAL42PERF36RET49ROTATIONn=5 · 5 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
SHADRICK BYRDRB JURET
★3★37227%-20HELD
11
TERRON KELLMANRB SENO SNAPS
★3★37126%-31HELD
14
HAHSAUN WILSONRB SERET
★2★36015%+26ROSE
11
DURELL ROBINSONRB SENO SNAPS
★3★35713%-22HELD
28
JOACHIM BANGDARB SENO SNAPS
★3—5612%+14—
21
HENRY RUTLEDGERB SERET
UNR—457%+38—
30
JAYLEN DONALDSONRB SORET
UNR—00%——
33
WATSON CUSICKRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE60TAL53PERF57RET55ROTATIONn=8 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
COLIN WEBERTE SERET
★3★39035%+36HELD
86
BRYCE KENNONTE SERET
UNR—8428%-1—
81
JAKE CLEMONSTE SERET
★3—8327%+45—
5
JAIRUS MACKWR SERET
★3—7725%+27—
81
JACK HESTERAWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★37624%+1EMERGED
7
DUANE THOMAS JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3★37423%-25HELD
0
JOEY BEARNS IIITE SENO SNAPS
★3★3548%—HELD
84
MALIK BAKER IIWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—506%-58—
8
SEAN BROWNWR SERET
UNR—506%-51—
2
RANDY FIELDS JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—485%——
22
JACK REYNOLDSWR JURET
★2★2434%-59HELD
5
ANDREW JACOBSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—383%——
6
JADEN BRADLEYWR SEPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
★3★3362%+15HELD
17
GUS MCGEETE SEPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
★3★3332%—HELD
15
ROGER WALTERSWR FRRET
★3★3271%—HELD
89
QUINTON PATTENWR JURET
★2—00%-25—
87
CHARLIE FISHWR SORET
★2★200%—HELD
37
IKE WHITEWR SOPORTAL · MINNESOTA
★3★300%—HELD
27
XANDER LAMBWR SORET
UNR—00%——
82
ELISHA EDWARDSWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
15
LACOTA DIPPRETE SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
80
TYREESE SCHIEFFERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
JASON JEFFARESTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
14
MANNING LASSOWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
19
LORENZO BOWERSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL31TAL39PERF31RET20n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL41TAL33PERF41RET42n=10 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸LB48TAL60PERF48RET21n=5 · 11 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸DB46TAL55PERF46RET13n=10 · 6 METRICS · 51 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS9 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DURELL ROBINSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CARSON BLACKHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
KEONI DENNYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DUANE THOMAS JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
LACOTA DIPPREHS RECRUITTEUNRUNR
KAMERON HOWARDHS RECRUITSUNRUNR
BRIAN BATESHS RECRUITLBUNRUNR
TYMERE BURTONHS RECRUITLBUNRUNR
EZEKIEL ZEFFHS RECRUITDLUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN16 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AUSTIN JOHNSONCOLORADOIOL★4★3
GUS MCGEESAN DIEGO STATETE★3★3
AL-MA'HI ALISAINT FRANCIS (PA)S★3★3
DONTAE BALFOURNORTH CAROLINACB★3★3
IKE WHITEMINNESOTAWR★3★3
ANDREW ADAIRJAMES MADISONIOL★3★3
GREG HUDGINSPURDUEEDGEUNR★3
JULIUS WELSCHOFMICHIGANDL★3★3
JADEN BRADLEYPITTSBURGHWR★3★3
NIKHAI HILL-GREENMICHIGANLB★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT52 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAXON HUGHESSOUTH CAROLINAOL★3★3
SOLOMON ROGERSJACKSON STATEDB★2★2
B.J. TURNERNORTH CAROLINA A&TLB★2UNR
ELIJAH SPENCERMINNESOTAWR★3★4
DARION SMITHMISSOURI STATEDL★3UNR
JOHNNY MARTINSTONY BROOKRB★3★3
TREVOR TIMMONSGEORGIA STATEOL★3★3
MICAH BELLMERCERRB★3★3
AIDAN LAROSUT MARTINPUNRUNR
ASHTON GISTELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES54%10 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS80%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#129NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8461COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1620 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST22% BACK22th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG22% BACK22th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR20%20th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR59%59th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST13%13th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE