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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG 12|SCOTT SATTERFIELD|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
CINCINNATI70 FPIB12 · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
64FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
42%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
63%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#751 BC / 12
BC RATIO
13%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-5.9
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE65
PERFORMANCE65
TALENT62
CONTINUITY42
DEFENSE9
PERFORMANCE9
TALENT54
CONTINUITY63
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
57MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HEASTERN KENTUCKY—W 66-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9APITTSBURGH—W 27-21723232+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HMIAMI (OH)—L 24-31215656-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HOKLAHOMA#15L 6-20948888-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29ABYU—L 27-35474343-9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HIOWA STATE—L 10-30577272-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HBAYLOR—L 29-32672727+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AOKLAHOMA STATE#16L 13-45606969-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HUCF—L 26-28625858-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AHOUSTON—W 24-14652929+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AWEST VIRGINIA—L 21-42647272-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HKANSAS#23L 16-49558282-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB44TAL30PERF45RET10ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
EMORY JONESQB SEPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
★4★38890%+16FELL
16
BRADY LICHTENBERGQB SERET
★3—4310%-3—
10
JACK PERRYQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
13
JACOB HOYINGQB JURET
UNR—00%——
15
WILL KOCHERQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB62TAL83PERF62RET98ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
COREY KINERRB SERET
★4—9556%-11—
22
MYLES MONTGOMERYRB SERET
★3★36920%+36HELD
22
RYAN MONTGOMERYRB SERET
★3—6920%+12—
25
SHAUN THOMASRB SORET
UNR—302%——
2
ETHAN WRIGHTRB SERET
★3★3282%+11HELD
42
STEPHAN BYRDRB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
5
VICTOR DAWSONRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
MANNY COVEYRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE46TAL66PERF47RET36ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
XZAVIER HENDERSONWR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA
★4★49632%+11HELD
BRADEN SMITHWR SEPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
UNR★38724%-14EMERGED
7
CHAMON METAYERTE SERET
★4★38647%-21FELL
2
DEE WIGGINSWR SEPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
★3★38423%-4HELD
88
PAYTEN SINGLETARYTE SERET
★3★37028%-9HELD
6
DONOVAN OLLIEWR SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
★3★3577%-16HELD
1
AARON TURNERWR SEPORTAL · UCONN
★3★3577%+13HELD
34
CALEB SCHMITZTE SORET
★3★35613%—HELD
3
EVAN PRATERWR SERET
★4—556%-8—
82
MICHAEL MCCALMONTTE SERET
UNR—446%——
45
BARAK FAULKTE JURET
UNR—436%——
7
BARRY JACKSON JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3241%—HELD
80
CHRIS SCOTTWR JURET
★3★3130%-48HELD
89
JESSE MEYERTE FRRET
UNR—111%——
18
STERLING BERKHALTERWR SEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA A&T
UNR★460%—EMERGED
17
JOEY BELJANTE SEPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
UNR★300%+46EMERGED
85
JIAIR THOMASWR SERET
UNR—00%——
83
TY PERKINSWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
86
LESLEY ANDOHWR SORET
UNR—00%——
1
MICHAEL MUSSARIWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL51TAL60PERF51RET55n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL54TAL44PERF54RET86n=9 · 7 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸LB57TAL72PERF58RET47n=5 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB42TAL47PERF42RET55n=7 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRADY DROGOSHHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
TREVOR CARTERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAYDEN DAVISHS RECRUITS★3UNR
BARRY JACKSON JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KAMARI BURNSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MANNY COVEYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
EVAN TENGESDAHLHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
RAYQUAN ADKINSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BRIAN SIMMS IIIHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JOSHUA GREGORYHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
XZAVIER HENDERSONFLORIDAWR★4★4
DEONDRE BUFORDKENTUCKYOT★4★3
DANIEL GRZESIAKUTAH STATEEDGEUNR★3
DONOVAN OLLIEWASHINGTON STATEWR★3★3
AARON TURNERUCONNWR★3★3
JORDAN YOUNGFLORIDACBUNR★3
DORIAN JONESLOUISVILLELB★3★3
DEE WIGGINSLOUISVILLEWR★3★3
LUKE KANDRALOUISVILLEIOL★3★3
STERLING BERKHALTERNORTH CAROLINA A&TWRUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOE HUBERWISCONSINOLUNR★3
JA'QUAN SHEPPARDMARYLANDDB★3★4
JAHEIM THOMASARKANSASLB★4★3
BEN BRYANTNORTHWESTERNQB★3★3
NOAH POTTERNC STATEDE★4★3
JADON THOMPSONLOUISVILLEWR★4★3
ARMORION SMITHMICHIGAN STATES★3★3
JONQUIS HARDAWAYKENTUCKYDB★4UNR
WILL PAULINGWISCONSINWR★3★3
BLUE SMITHWESTERN KENTUCKYWR★4★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES48%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS95%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#75NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 12 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8771COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2125 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST26% BACK26th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG26% BACK26th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR55%55th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR10%10th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST55%55th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE