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HOME›TEAMS›COLORADO STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
PAC-12|JAY NORVELL|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
COLORADO STATE112 FPIPAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
22FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
43%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
66%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#700 BC / 27
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
5-7ACTUALvs5.1-6.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-3.5
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE25
PERFORMANCE25
TALENT44
CONTINUITY43
DEFENSE30
PERFORMANCE30
TALENT42
CONTINUITY66
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
37MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HWASHINGTON STATE—L 24-50466363-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16ACOLORADO—L 35-43753939-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23AMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 31-23352424+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HUTAH TECH—W 41-20————NON-FBS OPPONENT
6OCT 7AUTAH STATE—L 24-44252020+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HBOISE STATE—W 31-30486767-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AUNLV—L 23-25145555-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HAIR FORCE—L 13-3016767-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 3AWYOMING—L 15-24114242-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HSAN DIEGO STATE—W 22-19262222+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HNEVADA—W 30-202811+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AHAWAI'I—L 24-272088+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB57TAL43PERF57RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
BRAYDEN FOWLER-NICOLOSIQB SERET
★3★39794%-1HELD
18
CLAY MILLENQB SERET
★3★3355%+38HELD
11
JACKSON BROUSSEAUQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★340%—HELD
12
GILES POOLERQB JURET
UNR—00%-48—
19
JACKSON STRATTONQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
17
BRIG HARTSONQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB43TAL31PERF43RET28ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
VANN SCHIELDRB SORET
UNR—8033%-34—
25
AVERY MORROWRB SERET
★3—7628%-17—
KOBE JOHNSONRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—6417%+32—
29
JUSTIN MARSHALLRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★36416%+15HELD
26
DAMIAN HENDERSON IIRB SENO SNAPS
★3★3394%-28HELD
40
KJ EDWARDSRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—202%——
31
JORDAN SMITHRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
33
KEEGAN HOLLESRB JURET
UNR—00%——
26
RYAN MCCONNELLRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE55TAL46PERF50RET55ONE OWNERn=5 · 8 METRICS · 36 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
DALLIN HOLKERTE JUPORTAL · BYU
★3★310094%+21HELD
86
JUSTUS ROSS-SIMMONSWR SERET
★3★39827%+20HELD
14
TORY HORTONWR SERET
★3—9725%+33—
4
LOUIS BROWN IVWR SERET
★3★39624%-38HELD
18
DYLAN GOFFNEYWR SEPORTAL · SMU
★3★38417%+1HELD
19
DAWSON MENEGATTIWR SERET
UNR—483%——
81
DANE OLSONWR SERET
UNR—402%-56—
44
PETER MONTINITE SERET
★3—333%——
12
VINCE BROWN IITE SENO SNAPS
UNR★3333%—EMERGED
3
JAMARI PERSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3271%—HELD
2
CALEB GOODIE SR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3★3221%—HELD
87
MASON MUAAUTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
18
MEKHI FOXWR SERET
★3★400%—ROSE
80
MATT GREENWALDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
CLAY NANKETE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
82
LAVON BROWNWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
84
STEPHON DAILYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
16
SILAS EVANS IIIWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
83
TERRYONTE TAYLORWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL57TAL42PERF57RET21n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL58TAL43PERF58RET65n=11 · 7 METRICS · 58 OBS
▸LB41TAL45PERF41RET78n=3 · 10 METRICS · 25 OBS
▸DB44TAL40PERF44RET61n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS23 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAMIAN HENDERSON IIHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KENNEDY MCDOWELLHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JUSTIN MARSHALLHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
LAVON BROWNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CHRISTIAN MARTINHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
WHITEFIELD POWELLHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DANTE SCOTTHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JACKSON BROUSSEAUHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DREW RODRIGUEZHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAYLEN GARDNERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN2 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DYLAN GOFFNEYSMUWR★3★3
DALLIN HOLKERBYUTE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TANNER ARKINILLINOISTE★3★3
OWEN SNIVELYEASTERN MICHIGANOL★3★3
DEVIN PHILLIPSKANSASDL★3★3
TY MCCULLOUCHMONTANA STATEWR★3★3
MELQUAN STOVALLARIZONA STATEWR★3★3
JAYLEN THOMASKENT STATERB★2UNR
TAVIAN BROWNGEORGIA STATELB★3★2
DAVID BAILEYTEXAS A&MRB★3★3
THOMAS PANNUNZIOCENTRAL MICHIGANWRUNRUNR
TYWAN FRANCISTEMPLES★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES21%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS33%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#70NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 27 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8404COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1020 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST82% BACK82th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG82% BACK82th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR21%21th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST61%61th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE