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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
PAC-12|JAY NORVELL|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
COLORADO STATE101 FPIPAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
30FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
77%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
70%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#690 BC / 20
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.7
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE24
PERFORMANCE24
TALENT44
CONTINUITY77
DEFENSE35
PERFORMANCE35
TALENT40
CONTINUITY70
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31ATEXAS#4L 0-52989595-65BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HNORTHERN COLORADO—W 38-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14HCOLORADO#25L 9-28787171-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HUTEP—W 27-171233+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AOREGON STATE—L 31-39472828+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HSAN JOSÉ STATE—W 31-24163232-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AAIR FORCE—W 21-1311717+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HNEW MEXICO—W 17-6151414+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ANEVADA—W 38-21231313+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HWYOMING—W 24-10121414+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AFRESNO STATE—L 22-28363737-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HUTAH STATE—W 42-37292121+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28HMIAMI (OH)—L 17-43204949-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB59TAL45PERF59RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
BRAYDEN FOWLER-NICOLOSIQB SERET
★3★38898%0HELD
11
JACKSON BROUSSEAUQB JURET
★3★3162%—HELD
12
GILES POOLERQB JURET
UNR—00%-48—
3
DARIUS CURRYQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
13
TOMMY POHOLSKYQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB37TAL28PERF37RET90ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
AVERY MORROWRB SERET
★3—9348%-9—
29
JUSTIN MARSHALLRB JURET
★3★38737%-6HELD
4
JALEN DUPREERB SONO SNAPS
★3★3475%+35HELD
33
KEEGAN HOLLESRB JURET
UNR—414%+16—
KOBE JOHNSONRB SERET
UNR—363%+22—
26
DAMIAN HENDERSON IIRB SERET
★3★3252%-4HELD
26
RYAN MCCONNELLRB SERET
UNR—00%——
24
GARRETT MENAGHRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE44TAL47PERF49RET74ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 42 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
VINCE BROWN IITE SERET
UNR★39873%-8EMERGED
3
JAMARI PERSONWR SERET
★3★38522%-15HELD
9
ARMANI WINFIELDWR SEPORTAL · BAYLOR
★4★48321%-19HELD
2
CALEB GOODIE SR.WR SERET
★3★37717%+17HELD
81
DANE OLSONWR SERET
UNR—6811%+36—
44
PETER MONTINITE SERET
★3—6723%+35—
10
JORDAN ROSSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3638%+26HELD
14
TORY HORTONWR SERET
★3—628%+34—
6
DONOVAN OLLIEWR SEPORTAL · CINCINNATI
★3★3514%-20HELD
4
LAVON BROWNWR SERET
★3—483%——
18
DYLAN GOFFNEYWR SERET
★3★3443%+2HELD
10
TOMMY MAHERWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—412%——
84
STEPHON DAILYWR JURET
★3—342%——
87
MASON MUAAUTE FRRET
★3—242%——
16
JORDAN WILLIAMSTE SENO SNAPS
★3★3242%-46HELD
80
MATT GREENWALDWR SERET
UNR—70%——
88
JORDAN MCINTYREWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
LANDON BELLWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
89
KEYNAN HIGGINSWR SOPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
★3★300%—HELD
85
KORY HALLWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
17
BRIG HARTSONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
86
NATE WEYANDTE SORET
UNR—00%——
19
JAXXON WARRENTE SONO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▸OL47TAL41PERF47RET76n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL32TAL38PERF32RET62n=10 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB16TAL49PERF16RET76n=5 · 11 METRICS · 29 OBS
▸DB48TAL37PERF48RET74n=9 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN ROSSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
LANDON BELLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
DARIUS CURRYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JALEN DUPREEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CHANCE HARRISONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KORY HALLHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JADEN LANDRUMHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
OWEN LONGHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
PHILLIP OCONHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JACK MORANHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ELIAS LARRYNAVYCB★2★3
ARMANI WINFIELDBAYLORWR★4★3
CHANDLER BROWNSHEPHERDOTUNR★3
DONOVAN OLLIECINCINNATIWR★3★3
ALEX FOSTERUTAH TECHOT★4★3
ISAIAH ESSISSIMANEVADACB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT25 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GRADY KELLYFLORIDA STATEDL★3★3
JUSTUS ROSS-SIMMONSSYRACUSEWR★3★3
LOUIS BROWN IVSAN DIEGO STATEWR★3★3
TJ CRANDALLWEST VIRGINIADB★3★3
VANN SCHIELDNORTHERN COLORADORBUNRUNR
BRANDON GUZMANCAMPBELLCB★3★3
TRAMAYNE MEJIA-PASTERBETHUNE-COOKMANLB★3UNR
TEIVIS TUIOTISAN DIEGO STATEDL★3★3
MOHAMED KAMARANFL DRAFT R5DL★3—
ANDREW CANNONELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES30%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS56%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#69NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8432COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1119 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST73% BACK73th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG73% BACK73th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR76%76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST74%74th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE