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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|MIKE HOUSTON|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
EAST CAROLINA93 FPIAAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
47FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
53%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
72%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-16IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#730 BC / 20
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs7.1-4.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+4.7
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE33
PERFORMANCE33
TALENT61
CONTINUITY53
DEFENSE38
PERFORMANCE38
TALENT45
CONTINUITY72
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
35MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HNORFOLK STATE—W 42-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AOLD DOMINION—W 20-1472929+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HAPP STATE—L 19-21392626+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ALIBERTY—L 24-35374747-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HUTSA—W 30-20525353-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5ACHARLOTTE—L 24-55531212+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AARMY#21L 28-4517373-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HTEMPLE—W 56-342555+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 49-14421616+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 14ATULSA—W 38-313355+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ANORTH TEXAS—W 40-28433434+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HNAVY—L 20-3415858-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28ANC STATE—W 26-21725959-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB44TAL91PERF44RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
KATIN HOUSERQB SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★4★37556%-13FELL
12
JAKE GARCIAQB SEPORTAL · MISSOURI
★4★47244%+13HELD
2
RAHEIM JETERQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
12
BRYSON HARRISONQB FRPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
★3★300%—HELD
9
JOHN DAVID BLACKQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB32TAL63PERF32RET76ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
47
RAHJAI HARRISRB SERET
★3—9460%-33—
24
LONDON MONTGOMERYRB SEPORTAL · PENN STATE
★4★37424%-8FELL
21
MARLON GUNN JR.RB SERET
★3—6416%-44—
20
TJ ENGLEMAN JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
23
JAH'CIRE JONESRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
26
DAMARI GANTTRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
22
MICHAEL BEATTYRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE54TAL62PERF57RET40ROTATIONn=8 · 7 METRICS · 48 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
ANTHONY SMITHWR SEPORTAL · NC STATE
★3★39126%+31HELD
1
WINSTON WRIGHT JR.WR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
★3★38723%+19HELD
0
CHASE SOWELLWR SERET
★3★47817%+26ROSE
3
YANNICK SMITHWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★47717%+22ROSE
10
CASEY KELLYTE SEPORTAL · OREGON
★3★37538%-36HELD
9
TYLER SAVAGETE SERET
★3—6931%+19—
JHARI PATTERSONWR SERET
★3★36710%+4HELD
6
DESIRRIO RILESTE SERET
★3★36423%-35HELD
10
BROCK SPALDINGWR SERET
★3—503%-43—
3
KELAN ROBINSONWR SERET
★3★3443%—HELD
8
JAYVONTAY CONNERTE JUPORTAL · OLE MISS
★3★3427%—HELD
7
KERRY KINGWR SERET
UNR—291%-42—
89
MALIK LEVERETTWR JURET
★3★3150%—HELD
81
JYRON WAITERSWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
19
JOSH MURPHYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
82
GAGE REALETE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
TRENTON CLOUDWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
23
MEL JACOBSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
87
NICK SLOGIKTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
14
DILLON LORICKWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
25
MCCALLUM WRIGHTWR SORET
UNR—00%——
13
JASON DICKERSONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
TY JOHNSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
26
ALEX MOYEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL53TAL59PERF53RET58n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL54TAL37PERF54RET91n=9 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
▸LB49TAL40PERF49RET67n=7 · 11 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸DB47TAL54PERF47RET62n=13 · 8 METRICS · 63 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
YANNICK SMITHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ERIC FLETCHER JR.HS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TRENTON CLOUDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KEVON MERRELLHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
TJ ENGLEMANHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
COLE HODGEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JA'MARLEY RIDDLEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
NICK SLOGIKHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
SHAIKH THOMPSONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DILLON LORICKHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LONDON MONTGOMERYPENN STATERB★4★3
CASEY KELLYOREGONTE★3★3
AYDEN DUNCANSONNORTH CAROLINAS★3★3
KATIN HOUSERMICHIGAN STATEQB★4★3
DAMEON WILSONMISSOURILB★3★3
JAYVONTAY CONNEROLE MISSTE★3★3
JAKE GARCIAMISSOURIQB★4★3
WINSTON WRIGHT JR.FLORIDA STATEWR★3★3
GAVIN GIBSONMARYLANDCB★3★3
ANTHONY SMITHNC STATEWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TEYLOR JACKSONLIBERTYLB★3★3
SHANE CALHOUNTEXAS A&MTE★3★3
RARA DILLWORTHBAYLORLB★4★3
RICHARD PEARCENEW MEXICOOL★3★3
TEAGAN WILKHOUSTONDB★3★3
JASON SHUFORDMARSHALLDLUNR★3
MASON GARCIAAUSTIN PEAYQB★4★4
ANTONIO FERGUSONFLORIDA INTERNATIONALTE★3★3
GERALD GREENTROYRB★2★3
XAVIER MCIVERUT MARTINDL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES48%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS48%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#73NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8454COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1733 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST33% BACK33th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG33% BACK33th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR58%58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST62%62th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE