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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|TOM HERMAN|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
FLORIDA ATLANTIC117 FPIAAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
42FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
50%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
51%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-14IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#790 BC / 16
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-4.3
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE32
PERFORMANCE32
TALENT42
CONTINUITY50
DEFENSE14
PERFORMANCE14
TALENT42
CONTINUITY51
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30AMICHIGAN STATE—L 10-16713333-17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HARMY#21L 7-2417373-57BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 38-20201717-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21AUCONN—L 14-48275050-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HWAGNER—W 41-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
7OCT 12HNORTH TEXAS—L 37-41433434-18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AUTSA—L 24-38525353-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HSOUTH FLORIDA—L 21-44504141-25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7AEAST CAROLINA—L 14-49474545-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16ATEMPLE—L 15-182555+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HCHARLOTTE—L 27-39531212+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30ATULSA—W 63-163355+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB39TAL46PERF39RET18ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
CAM FANCHERQB SEPORTAL · MARSHALL
★3★37663%-3HELD
12
KASEN WEISMANQB SOPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★36019%-44HELD
1
TYRIQ STARKSQB SERET
UNR—5818%+24—
15
CARSON CRUVERQB SERET
UNR—00%——
15
JAYDEN GEORGEQB SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
15
MICHAEL VALENTINOQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB57TAL31PERF57RET30ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
CJ CAMPBELL JR.RB SEPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
UNR★39659%+29EMERGED
2
ZUBERI MOBLEYRB SERET
★3★37726%+8HELD
22
GEMARI SANDSRB JURET
★3★3538%-52HELD
25
XAVIER TERRELLRB SORET
★3★3404%+38HELD
28
KADEN SHIELDS-DUTTONRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—282%+21—
33
TREMONTE UNDERWOOD JR.RB FRTRUE FR
UNR—50%——
35
KEYVON WALKERRB FRRET
UNR—00%-23—
20
JOSHUA HARRIOTTRB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE26TAL43PERF35RET42ONE OWNERn=11 · 7 METRICS · 52 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
WYATT SULLIVANTE SERET
★3★39451%-16HELD
9
OMARI HAYESWR SERET
UNR★38020%+33EMERGED
48
ZEKE MOORETE SERET
★3★37526%-44HELD
11
MARLYN JOHNSONWR SEPORTAL · BUFFALO
★3★37215%-27HELD
5
JABARI SMITH JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★3★37215%+35HELD
9
DOMINIQUE HENRYWR SEPORTAL · BYU
★3★36912%-57HELD
7
GEORGE JOHNSON IIIWR SEPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS
★3★36510%-5HELD
MILAN TUCKERWR SEPORTAL · APP STATE
★3★3639%+15HELD
1
JAYSHON PLATTWR SERET
★3★3597%-58HELD
85
ELIJAH BROWNTE SERET
★4★35812%—FELL
18
KAHLIL BRANTLEYTE JURET
★3★35611%-5HELD
16
CALEB COOMBSWR SEPORTAL · MARSHALL
★3★3566%-9HELD
81
LEON WASHINGTON JR.WR FRTRUE FR
★3★3545%-43HELD
80
JOSEPH YOUNGWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—443%——
88
KAM BELLTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
11
DEVARIUS MITCHELLWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
JETT COOLMANWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
43
LIAM BESECKERTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
13
EJ HORTON JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%+21HELD
6
B.J. ALEXANDERWR SERET
UNR—00%-51—
84
NICHOLAS VENEZIAWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
46
ALIAM APPLERTE —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL30TAL51PERF30RET65n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL37TAL42PERF37RET55n=10 · 7 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB38TAL51PERF38RET99n=4 · 10 METRICS · 29 OBS
▸DB44TAL39PERF44RET26n=10 · 6 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CJ HEARDHS RECRUITS★3UNR
MAURICIO HINDSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CHAR'QUEZ LEEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
GAVENCH MARCELINHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KADEN SHIELDS-DUTTONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MIKE WRIGHT IIIHS RECRUITS★3UNR
LEON WASHINGTON JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ETHAN PROFFITTHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
LAWRENCE JOHNSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KYLE BOYLSTONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PHILLIP DUNNAMINDIANAS★3★3
CAM FANCHERMARSHALLQB★3★3
ERIC BRANTLEY JR.COLORADOEDGE★3★3
MARLYN JOHNSONBUFFALOWR★3★3
DAUGHTRY RICHARDSONFLORIDA STATEOT★3★3
GEORGE JOHNSON IIIMASSACHUSETTSWR★3★3
PRINCE BOYDPURDUEDLUNR★3
CALEB COOMBSMARSHALLWR★3★3
KYLER LAINGBUFFALOEDGE★3★3
MILAN TUCKERAPP STATEWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT44 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KAMAAR BELLSOUTH CAROLINAOL★3★3
DARIUS MCCLENDONBOWLING GREENCB★3★3
LATRELL JEANTEMPLEDT★3★3
LAJOHNTAY WESTERCOLORADOWRUNR★3
DANIEL RICHARDSONFLORIDA A&MQB★3★2
COURTNEY MCBRIDE JR.SOUTH ALABAMALB★3★3
TONY JOHNSONCINCINNATIWR★3UNR
JAYLEN WESTERCOLORADOLB★3★3
MORVEN JOSEPHJACKSONVILLE STATELB★4★3
AMARI WANSLEYMURRAY STATES★3UNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES88%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS86%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#79NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8448COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2034 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST8% BACK8th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG8% BACK8th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR65%65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR18%18th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST26%26th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE