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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
PAC-12|MATT ENTZ|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
FRESNO STATE85 FPIPAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
35FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
56%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
55%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1030 BC / 16
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.3
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE14
PERFORMANCE14
TALENT36
CONTINUITY56
DEFENSE57
PERFORMANCE57
TALENT40
CONTINUITY55
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 23AKANSAS—L 7-31665757-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
1AUG 30HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 42-14332424+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6AOREGON STATE—W 36-275777+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HSOUTHERN—W 56-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20AHAWAI'I—W 23-21135050+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HNEVADA—W 20-17141515+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 10ACOLORADO STATE—L 21-493499+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HSAN DIEGO STATE—L 0-23386969-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ABOISE STATE—W 30-7425353-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HWYOMING—W 24-3151919+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HUTAH STATE—L 17-28184242+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ASAN JOSÉ STATE—W 41-14211313+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27HMIAMI (OH)—W 18-3374040+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB36TAL45PERF36RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
E.J. WARNERQB SEPORTAL · RICE
★3★38276%0HELD
17
CARSON CONKLINQB JUPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
★3★36524%-18HELD
7
JAYDEN MANDALQB JURET
★3—00%——
18
BRAYDEN TURNERQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
16
JONATHAN CRAFTQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB49TAL32PERF49RET56ROTATIONn=5 · 9 METRICS · 30 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
BRYSON DONELSONRB JURET
★3—9035%-15—
2
RAYSHON LUKERB SEPORTAL · ARIZONA
★4★38832%+23FELL
31
BRANDON RAMIREZRB JURET
★3—6412%-13—
33
ELIJAH GILLIAMRB SERET
UNR—6311%-3—
0
JOHNATHAN ARCENEAUXRB SERET
★3—6110%+15—
24
JULIUS GILLICKRB FRTRUE FR
★3—60%——
27
RYAN WARKENTINRB JURET
★2—00%——
20
DEVON RIVERSRB SORET
★3—00%-56—
▾WR/TE35TAL47PERF35RET71ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
84
RICHIE ANDERSON IIITE SERET
★3★39954%-15HELD
5
JOSIAH FREEMANWR SERET
UNR★38929%+15EMERGED
87
JAKE TARWATERTE SERET
UNR—8024%-34—
15
KAMRON BEACHEMTE SERET
★3★37620%+10HELD
1
JAHLIL MCCLAINWR JUPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
★3★37619%-41HELD
0
EZEKIEL AVITWR JUPORTAL · MARYLAND
★3★37518%-16HELD
81
JORDAN BROWNWR SERET
★3—6511%-34—
10
JORDAN MALAU'ULUWR SORET
★3—6410%-45—
11
JAYON FARRARWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—629%-14—
19
HAROLD DUVALLWR SONO SNAPS
★3—423%——
89
BROCK LIUMTE JURET
★3—201%——
30
JACE NIXONTE SORET
★3—191%——
85
JOSIAH AYONWR SEPORTAL · WESTERN COLORADO
★2★3110%—ROSE
28
CADEN RODGERSTE JURET
UNR—90%——
80
JAYLEN GARRISONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
JOSHUA JOHNSONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
LUKE JONESWR SOPORTAL · PURDUE
UNR★200%—EMERGED
26
ISAIAH DILLONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
35
SEBASTIEN BOYDELLTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
25
KEYNAN COTTONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
29
MALAKAI SUMTERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
32
RYAN LEWISTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
86
GAVIN CORREIATE SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▸OL47TAL34PERF47RET63n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL53TAL46PERF53RET70n=11 · 7 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB51TAL22PERF51RET7n=4 · 10 METRICS · 27 OBS
▸DB61TAL47PERF61RET69n=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HAROLD DUVALLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JULIUS GILLICKHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ISAIAH DILLONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MALCOLM POLU JR.HS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JONAH LEAUPEPETELEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
BRAYDEN WALTONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
BRAYDEN TURNERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
KEYNAN COTTONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JONATHAN CRAFTHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
SEBASTIEN BOYDELLHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MARQUISE THORPE-TAYLORUCLAOT★3★3
SAMMIE HUNTERUTAHCB★3★3
E.J. WARNERRICEQB★3★3
FINN CLAYPOOLDRAKEEDGEUNR★3
CARSON CONKLINSACRAMENTO STATEQB★3★3
RAYSHON LUKEARIZONARB★4★3
K'VION THUNDERBIRDARIZONA STATELB★3★3
JAHLIL MCCLAINLOUISVILLEWR★3★3
EZEKIEL AVITMARYLANDWR★3★3
MARTIN OWUSUMINNESOTADL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JULIAN NEALARKANSASDB★3★4
PHOENIX JACKSONBAYLORLBUNR★3
JACOB HOLMESVIRGINIADL★3★3
JALEN MOSSARIZONA STATEWR★3★3
RAYLEN SHARPEARKANSASWR★3★3
MALIK SHERRODBOISE STATERB★3★3
EZRA CHRISTENSENNEW MEXICO STATEDLUNR★3
TIM GREAR JR.AKRONWRUNR★3
NATHAN ACEVEDOSAN DIEGO STATEWR★3★3
CHEDON JAMESINCARNATE WORDWR★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES41%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS66%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#103NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8360COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2126 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST30% BACK30th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG30% BACK30th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR63%63th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST69%69th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE